What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

[sergio]

A serious and informative interview:

Here in English:

 

[gracielle]

17 August 2023.... Interview by Jorge Fontevecchia and Claudio Mardones

Julio Cobos: "Si Bullrich no va a ballotage voy a tener que pensar mucho mi voto"

El diputado nacional afirma que Javier Milei no podrá llevar adelante sus propuestas de campaña. “Hay temas que el propone, como cuestiones penales, electorales o tributarias, que no las puede hacer ni por DNU", afirmó en Modo Fontevecchia.

www.perfil.com

Julio Cobos: "If Bullrich does not make it to the ballotage I will have to think a lot about my vote". The National Deputy/former Vice President (Partido Radical) affirms that Javier Milei will not be able to carry out his campaign proposals. "There are issues that he proposes, such as criminal, electoral or tax issues, that he cannot do even with the DNU," he stated....

....Milei is moderating his speech. What was an immediate dollarization now, he says, can take up to 24 months. There are issues that he says, but that constitutionally cannot be done as long as the balance between the three powers is maintained. Education is guaranteed to be free, public and compulsory. Important surveys have been carried out here. 40% of the people say that they voted for Milei out of anger, indignation, another 40% maintain that it represents renewal, it must be taken into account that the other candidates have been in politics for some time.

Do you think that if he becomes president he won't be able to do everything he says?
He will be able to do it to the extent that he agrees with the different political forces in Congress, there is no other way. There are issues that he proposes, such as criminal, electoral or tax issues, that he cannot do even by DNU. I have seen him more moderate in the last notes he has made and he will surely have a reality check if the public appoints him president. It will have to adapt its proposals in accordance with the constitution and parliamentary reality.

Imagining that Patricia Bullrich does not make it to the ballot and have to vote between Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, would you vote blank (voto en blanco) or would you prefer one? I'm going to have to think about it a lot, neither of the two candidates satisfy me.

 

[gracielle]

22 June 2023

https://www.baenegocios.com/politica/Paso-2023-a-quien-beneficia-el-voto-en-blanco-20230622-0006.html

....Who benefits from blank vote in 2023 general elections, according to the National Electoral Chamber....The general election will be held a few days (October 22) after the presidential debate. There, blank votes (votos en blanco) are transferred to the candidate with the least points. Otherwise, if there is a candidate who obtains the necessary percentage to win in the first round, the blank votes are not counted.

A candidate must obtain more than 45% of the positive votes cast to win in the first round or, in any case, more than 40% with a difference of more than 10 points in relation to the second force....

 

[sergio]

17 August 2023.... Interview by Jorge Fontevecchia and Claudio Mardones

Julio Cobos: "Si Bullrich no va a ballotage voy a tener que pensar mucho mi voto"

El diputado nacional afirma que Javier Milei no podrá llevar adelante sus propuestas de campaña. “Hay temas que el propone, como cuestiones penales, electorales o tributarias, que no las puede hacer ni por DNU", afirmó en Modo Fontevecchia.

www.perfil.com

Julio Cobos: "If Bullrich does not make it to the ballotage I will have to think a lot about my vote". The National Deputy/former Vice President (Partido Radical) affirms that Javier Milei will not be able to carry out his campaign proposals. "There are issues that he proposes, such as criminal, electoral or tax issues, that he cannot do even with the DNU," he stated....

....Milei is moderating his speech. What was an immediate dollarization now, he says, can take up to 24 months. There are issues that he says, but that constitutionally cannot be done as long as the balance between the three powers is maintained. Education is guaranteed to be free, public and compulsory. Important surveys have been carried out here. 40% of the people say that they voted for Milei out of anger, indignation, another 40% maintain that it represents renewal, it must be taken into account that the other candidates have been in politics for some time.

Do you think that if he becomes president he won't be able to do everything he says?
He will be able to do it to the extent that he agrees with the different political forces in Congress, there is no other way. There are issues that he proposes, such as criminal, electoral or tax issues, that he cannot do even by DNU. I have seen him more moderate in the last notes he has made and he will surely have a reality check if the public appoints him president. It will have to adapt its proposals in accordance with the constitution and parliamentary reality.

Imagining that Patricia Bullrich does not make it to the ballot and have to vote between Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, would you vote blank (voto en blanco) or would you prefer one? I'm going to have to think about it a lot, neither of the two candidates satisfy me.

Of course he's being more moderate. He now has a chance of being elected. When you negotiate you start out with a lot of demands then try to reach agreements.

 

[gracielle]

20 August 2023 by Federico Gonzalez del Solar

Los votantes escondidos que pueden cambiar la elección, esperanzan a Juntos por el Cambio y abren un enigma sobre Milei

Es esperable que se sumen cerca de 1.5 millones de electores nuevos en octubre; en el pasado Juntos por el Cambios sacó provecho del alza, pero el libertario se ofrece como nueva opción frente al descontento; los casos de Santa Fe, Córdoba y Buenos Aires

www.lanacion.com.ar

The hidden voters who can change the election, hope for Juntos por el Cambio and open an enigma about Milei. It is expected that close to 1.5 million new voters will join in October. In the past Juntos por el Cambio took advantage of the increase, but the libertarian offers himself as a new option against discontent; the cases of Santa Fe, Córdoba and Buenos Aires.

If history, always capricious, does not hide some unexpected design, it is possible to anticipate that a part of the electorate absent in the primaries will now go to the polls to vote. This is not to say that voters distanced from the franchise will turn out en masse. It is wiser to hope that only do it a small portion, which could take the mathematical form of 3%, which is the average growth in voter turnout between the presidential PASO and the general elections since 2011.

There are those who estimate that in October, a few more points could be added to that average. But if one sticks to the historical average, the turnout would stay close to 73%, which would mean having close to 1.5 million new voters in the general elections in October. This is a figure that goes around in the campaign commands of the different political forces, under the premise that it is easier to add the withdrawn voter than to persuade the outsider. Regardless of the variation that that conjectural number might experience, a good place to start looking for absentee ballots are those districts that showed below-average turnout (69%)....

 

[Quilombo]

Listening to Macri's speech on PASO election night. Listening to what he said with Mahul last night. Listening to Milei for weeks.
And here, just unearthed, is Pagni speculating about exactly this possibility. Skip straight to the segment 49.57 to 50.30 and on to 51.37 about the Radicals. (The rest of the presentation is well worth listening to as well.)

The problem he faces is the cut ballot as they're calling it in Provincia, which is a blurse as it cuts both ways: people will vote for him for President (and not Massa), but aren't interested in his minions for other positions at various levels, local/provincial/federal.

That being said, the hard wing of PRO shares many of his philosophies so if he becomes president there is always the chance he can get some of his projects passed, but I'm still going to bet he's doubling down on the K's extensive DNU strategy which, perhaps to the Peronists chagrin, has basically been deemed kosher, though I'm sure they'll call his use of them an overreach.

You can do a lot of damage (or change, I suppose it's prospective) via DNUs, so while we shouldn't write him off, long term codification, such as re-writing labor law will require congressional approval, and naturally will face a general strike by the CGT/CTA/etc. and this can be extended to the rest of his agenda too. I do think his DNU powers are strongest relating to the economy though, as Alberto has proved via ad hoc tax creation/manipulating the dollar, so even if that's all he accomplishes it is something for his supporters.

One of the few things I agree with him on is putting major decisions (non-human rights ones that is) like dollarization going to a plebiscite. I may be against dollarization, but if it's going to happen I'd prefer to give the choice to the people instead of him/congress. I'm certain it will be sold falsely regardless, but such a drastic change really needs something beyond a simple quadrennial election

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692224414593478923

I always find these things funny, it's a lot more telling about the person making the claim than those who they're targeting. Milei, like Ben Shapiro (the guy this Benny dweeb works for) calls everyone who isn't a Blut und Boden republican a communist, yet when you ask these people what communism/marxism/leftism is they can't even define it - it's like the Jordan Peterson/Zizek debate all over again, except this time it's black people in Disney movies lol

Milei claims to hate populism, and says he's an economist, yet he apparently failed Econ 101 because he is constantly screaming that Argentina is administered according to Marxist economic theory, which anyone with a basic understanding of economics knows is not true. So this begs the question: is Milei just stupid, or is he a bullshit artist and a right wing populist? As shocking as it is, I'm 99.9% sure it's the later.

Milei likes Austrian Economics, he knows what the Arbeitswerttheorie is, he knows Massa/Cristina/Alberto don't believe nor practice it, and he knows Argentina suffers not from Marxism which has never taken root here, but instead from basic macroeconomic malaise and mismanagement, yet that's a harder sell than right wing grievance politics and the manosphere grift of blaming pro-choice women with septum piercings and blue haired coffee shop lesbians for all the faults of the world, because it requires zero self introspection or hard work.

Credit where credit is due; if he can manage to bring the concept of the temporarily embarrassed millionaire to Argentina of all places he's a lot smarter than I give him credit for, but we'll have to wait and see to get the verdict on that one.

 

[Ries]

is Milei a millionaire?
I have read there are some offshore corporations that own property in Miami, but seriously- does he actually have any money? I know he worked for a while in finance, but he doesnt seem to own any companies, its all very hazy in every article I can find online.
I know that cloning dogs cant be cheap, though.

 

[Alby]

The most likely scenario if Milei actually makes it over the line is destitution, juicio politico/vacancia. Various commentators are now pointing to this (Andres Malamud, for example). And they are right. It's standard practice now in various countries and happens when the president has nobody to save him or her in the parliament. It has happened to three of the last five presidents in Peru and a fourth resigned the day before it would have happened. And they are constantly manoeuvring at present to find a pretext to do it to the current president. And almost certainly will, at some point prior to the next election, due in 2026. But we've seen it in other countries too. If they can't unearth any corruption to base it on, they use whatever deaths have occurred in street protests as the pretext.

 

[jiujitsusa]

Trump is a mobster, and for those who praise him as a successful businessman, he'd be worth more if he'd put Daddy Trump's money in the S&P 500. Plus, by his own rules, he should be deported as an illegal immigrant (Granddaddy Trump lied on his immigration form, pretending to be from Sweden rather than Nazi Germany, so he and all of his misbegotten generations are eligible to be deported, just like any bad hombres up there).

And yes, Milei is only starting, one shudders to imagine what he might be like in 10 years, particularly if he gets power. The IMF and the US are pushing back on his dollarization plans now.

Oh and Biden is probably the best US president since Clinton. There, I've said it People in the US will be using roads, bridges, and other infrastructure funded by him 50 years or more from now. Plus, unemployment is low, millions of jobs have been created, lower inflation and mortgages mean the middle class is benefiting, millions have affordable education and health insurance. He's walking the walk: it really is morning in America now

Rachael Maddow in Argentina?

 

[FrankPintor]

Rachael Maddow in Argentina?

I'm sure this must be some tremendously clever in-joke, but you see, I'm not a Yonaite, and I have no idea why you're using my post to name-check some random woman. Do say "hi" to Rachael when you see her.