What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

[FrankPintor]

I believe he was responding to your schizo ultra left conspiracy theories.

So, another day, another drive-by post from our Pierre Content-free and ad-hominem just so we know it's authentic. Only he shall ever know which schizo ultra left conspiracy theories, I'm afraid, since I don't believe I ever expressed any. I leave that to those who would treat Argentina and Latin America as an empty and culture-free blank canvas on which to paint their escapist fantasies.

Speaking of which...

I really hope that he becomes the president, it would be very very entertaining.

[Skipping out the gay conspiracy theory stuff].

Wild times. And, god help me, Milei could be good for Argentina?

Isn't this post just what one would expect from someone who has absolutely no skin in the game? (other than maybe a property or two whose value has always increased no matter who was in power, except for post 2020). Someone who simply wants to shit-post and warm his hands at the fire while the central bank is blown up, the rest burnt down, and damn the people who actually have to live with the consequences?

I see some good ideas coming from Milei, but the whole package and show are just "inmamable". While the US may be able to manage its loony presidents with checks and balances, this sort of thing is untried in Argentina.

[And I'll try not to comment on US politics, I just follow it with a sort of horrified fascination. And popcorn. Just to say my picking of one as the "best" doesn't mean that all of them aren't / weren't senile, nuts, criminal, useless, or several of those at the same time. The US just seems to manage that better. And for me, the Clinton period was a feel-good time, again seen from far away, and as Quilombo has pointed out, others may have very different perspectives].

 

[Quilombo]

Is there really an underlying economic concept here? Is the SWIFT payment itself an economic concept, or is it the necessity for banking authorities to cooperate?

I would say so, that you must have a bare minimum of relations between nations in order to facilitate trade, otherwise basic flow of goods, services, and money becomes well, a quilombo.

Look at countries with limited recognition, such as Transnistria or Northern Cyprus, or countries that don't have formal relations such as China and Bhutan, Armenia and Azerbaijan; these pairs may not directly trade even though goods undoubtedly flow to each other via their neighbors or third countries, but the burdens are huge, and hurt companies and people domestically as much, if not more, than they do the intended targets.

China either has a monopoly or plurality on various rare Earth metals and their refinement, what would happen if they decided to have a trade war with us over Milei? He assumes that trade independent of governments is possible, which sure, it is on a marginal scale, but the 21st Century global economy isn't 19th Century merchants going port to port trading their wares.

It would be better for me if Massa wins. Milei could be a disaster but the Ks and JxC have proven to be incompetent.

He understands that payments will need to go through the central bank, what he is saying is that under his administration there won't be new Chinese military bases, Chinese government funded infrastructure projects, yuan swaps, etc. Not there will be zero government interaction with China.

It's hilarious that he believes the US and western Europe have more social and economic freedom than China? I don't know anyone that believes otherwise.

If he wants to make China a boogeyman like other countries have, they're in a much better position than Argentina is to weather a trade war, you're assuming China will just let Milei shit on them while maintaining trade. Maybe China says "that's fine, we don't need bases/Belt & Road/RMB swaps with Argentina, but effective December 10th 2023 you must apply for import/export permits for trade with Argentina". Again, this also assumes he's not just telling Xi and contacts "Hey guys, I'm taking the rubes for a ride, this is just politics" which part of me thinks is the most likely explanation as I refuse to believe he's as stupid as the things he says.

Damn, there is a lot of truth in this comment.

I find the demonization of China bitterly amusing. Let's try a checklist -

Watching Western countries clutch their pearls over China is amusing; every accusation is a confession, and then I think about things like the US and Australia freaking out about the Solomon Islands signing a security deal with China, and the Solomon Islands asking what the US' counter offer is to Beijing's, and Blinken and Biden saying re-opening the embassy closed in 1993. The West wants countries to bend the knee with all stick and no carrot, and wonder why China is eating their lunch in the Global South.

Wasn't it PRO and Macri who first approved gay marriage in CABA?

I believe the first was a civil union law promoted by a Frente Grande member Roque Bellomo in 2001, and finally passed in 2003. The national gay marriage law passed with a hodgepodge of different people for an against it from differing ideological spectrums, for example, 39% of Cristina's faction voted against it, and 40% of PRO for it in 2010.

this is the first time I've ever seen anyone other than the Chinese government refer to what happened in Hong Kong as propaganda

In Red's defense I call it a wannabe Color Revolution out of the West's old reliable playbook instead of propaganda, though it would be interesting to see how London, Brussels and DC would feel if China started openly supporting separatist movements in Quebec, Catalonia, and Irish Unification.

 

[antipodean]

Jesus Christ on a motorbike, this one takes the prize for most off-track thread ever.

In a nutshell, dollarization for expats means:
- China
- LGBTQ+ rights
- Abortion
- Uranium
- Donald Trump
- Northern Ireland
- Tantric Sex
- ….????

Que será, será. Now, would you like to pay with Visa or MasterCard?

 

[Pierre Smith]

So, another day, another drive-by post from our Pierre . . . a bunch of other drunken comments . . .

Yeah, basically, as I said elsewhere, dollarization is very bad for almost everyone in the short term - I mean me, I mean you, I mean the IMF and bondholders (another default incoming), the works - but in the longer term would permanently kill inflation and force fiscal discipline onto all future governments.

As I said in a different thread, dollarization would be very harmful to my personal experience of Argentina, and that of most ex-pats, but certainly is the best decision for the long run health of the country, so that while my heart says 'yes, do it, I'm for Milei and his program,' my head says 'no, that's not in my best interest, Milei should not become the president.'

You can make of that what you want, but I'm not "shit-posting," not at all.

 

[Pierre Smith]

is Milei a millionaire?
I have read there are some offshore corporations that own property in Miami, but seriously- does he actually have any money?

The hot assumption is that he's secretly rich, but I bet that he really doesn't have much or even any money at all. A classic adventurer like you don't really see too often.

 

[sergio]

I would say so, that you must have a bare minimum of relations between nations in order to facilitate trade, otherwise basic flow of goods, services, and money becomes well, a quilombo.

Look at countries with limited recognition, such as Transnistria or Northern Cyprus, or countries that don't have formal relations such as China and Bhutan, Armenia and Azerbaijan; these pairs may not directly trade even though goods undoubtedly flow to each other via their neighbors or third countries, but the burdens are huge, and hurt companies and people domestically as much, if not more, than they do the intended targets.

China either has a monopoly or plurality on various rare Earth metals and their refinement, what would happen if they decided to have a trade war with us over Milei? He assumes that trade independent of governments is possible, which sure, it is on a marginal scale, but the 21st Century global economy isn't 19th Century merchants going port to port trading their wares.



If he wants to make China a boogeyman like other countries have, they're in a much better position than Argentina is to weather a trade war, you're assuming China will just let Milei shit on them while maintaining trade. Maybe China says "that's fine, we don't need bases/Belt & Road/RMB swaps with Argentina, but effective December 10th 2023 you must apply for import/export permits for trade with Argentina". Again, this also assumes he's not just telling Xi and contacts "Hey guys, I'm taking the rubes for a ride, this is just politics" which part of me thinks is the most likely explanation as I refuse to believe he's as stupid as the things he says.


Watching Western countries clutch their pearls over China is amusing; every accusation is a confession, and then I think about things like the US and Australia freaking out about the Solomon Islands signing a security deal with China, and the Solomon Islands asking what the US' counter offer is to Beijing's, and Blinken and Biden saying re-opening the embassy closed in 1993. The West wants countries to bend the knee with all stick and no carrot, and wonder why China is eating their lunch in the Global South.


I believe the first was a civil union law promoted by a Frente Grande member Roque Bellomo in 2001, and finally passed in 2003. The national gay marriage law passed with a hodgepodge of different people for an against it from differing ideological spectrums, for example, 39% of Cristina's faction voted against it, and 40% of PRO for it in 2010.

In Red's defense I call it a wannabe Color Revolution out of the West's old reliable playbook instead of propaganda, though it would be interesting to see how London, Brussels and DC would feel if China started openly supporting separatist movements in Quebec, Catalonia, and Irish Unification.

Western nations are not advocating HK independence, rather that the PRC respect the agreement they signed.

 

[Quilombo]

Que será, será. Nonw, would you like to pay with Visa or MasterCard?

Amex please

Western nations are not advocating HK independence, rather that the PRC respect the agreement they signed.

And several candidates for LegCo specifically ran on HK independence and helped organize/lead protests against modifications to the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance, so it's not like these things existed in a vacuum, and both can be occurring at the same time, i.e. China can be violating the agreement with the UK at the same time the West is supporting a Color Revolution.

 

[lunar]

I would say so, that you must have a bare minimum of relations between nations in order to facilitate trade, otherwise basic flow of goods, services, and money becomes well, a quilombo.

Look at countries with limited recognition, such as Transnistria or Northern Cyprus, or countries that don't have formal relations such as China and Bhutan, Armenia and Azerbaijan; these pairs may not directly trade even though goods undoubtedly flow to each other via their neighbors or third countries ...

You seem to be confusing some political quirks and sanctions with economic principles. The law of supply and demand works all the same in the USA, Northern Cyprus or Russia. You can do some rope jumping, but the law of gravity still applies.

 

[Reply Guy]

I see some good ideas coming from Milei, but the whole package and show are just "inmamable"

This is what it comes down to for me. He has some ideas that may or may not work, but they are different from the ideas that have failed over the past 20 years. If you look at his economic proposals they are not exactly the same as Menem or the junta.

That he cloned his dogs, his sex life, and the other eccentricities are irrelevant.

 

[sergio]

Yeah, basically, as I said elsewhere, dollarization is very bad for almost everyone in the short term - I mean me, I mean you, I mean the IMF and bondholders (another default incoming), the works - but in the longer term would permanently kill inflation and force fiscal discipline onto all future governments.

As I said in a different thread, dollarization would be very harmful to my personal experience of Argentina, and that of most ex-pats, but certainly is the best decision for the long run health of the country, so that while my heart says 'yes, do it, I'm for Milei and his program,' my head says 'no, that's not in my best interest, Milei should not become the president.'

You can make of that what you want, but I'm not "shit-posting," not at all.

You're honest. The expat party will come to an end. I remember it was during the Menem years.