When will property be cheap in Buenos Aires?

[earlyretirement]

Jed,

Also, I forgot to mention that many expats have this romantic notion and idea that it would be fabulous to own an apartment in Buenos Aires. They imagine spending their golden years there or early retirement there. They have this idea in their head it's great to have their own property. Don't get me wrong. It's a great feeling owning real estate in Buenos Aires. But I purchased all of them either at the bottom or close to the bottom of the market.

But I have to say that it's not really romantic owning there. It's kind of a pain in the ass. I'll never sell all of my properties but it is a major pain in the ass on many of them. It's a pain in the ass to deal with utility companies when there are issues. Or water leaks from the upstairs neighbors in the event of a water leak. Or the HOA when it's a broken pipe in the building and it's their fault. Or a doorman getting fired and having to pay a big severance to them even if they are getting fired for cause or outright theft. Or a gas leak that causes a building to be without hot water or gas for stove for up to 12 months. (ALL of these things have happened in buildings I own in).

I get the hunch that you've lived in Buenos Aires long enough to know what I'm referring to. BA is a fabulous city but it's also one of the most corrupt and inefficient cities in the world. Not to mention, that many expats over the next few years (if they weren't smart enough to already have moved out of Argentina) will end up moving out of the country.

Some ex-pats say silly things like they will never leave Argentina. Or have a significant other or family there and not want to leave. But the situation is as such that eventually most people will "cry uncle" and wise up and leave Argentina for a more stable life. I'm still in the camp that says we will NEVER see real estate so cheap like after the correlito. Much like the real estate crash in the USA in 2011'ish, I believe that was a once in a lifetime chance to pick up prime real estate so cheap.

Not to say prices can dip again but you'll NEVER see prices so cheap per m2 like it was then. IMHO.

 

[perry]

Jed,

Also, I forgot to mention that many expats have this romantic notion and idea that it would be fabulous to own an apartment in Buenos Aires. They imagine spending their golden years there or early retirement there. They have this idea in their head it's great to have their own property. Don't get me wrong. It's a great feeling owning real estate in Buenos Aires. But I purchased all of them either at the bottom or close to the bottom of the market.

But I have to say that it's not really romantic owning there. It's kind of a pain in the ass. I'll never sell all of my properties but it is a major pain in the ass on many of them. It's a pain in the ass to deal with utility companies when there are issues. Or water leaks from the upstairs neighbors in the event of a water leak. Or the HOA when it's a broken pipe in the building and it's their fault. Or a doorman getting fired and having to pay a big severance to them even if they are getting fired for cause or outright theft. Or a gas leak that causes a building to be without hot water or gas for stove for up to 12 months. (ALL of these things have happened in buildings I own in).

I get the hunch that you've lived in Buenos Aires long enough to know what I'm referring to. BA is a fabulous city but it's also one of the most corrupt and inefficient cities in the world. Not to mention, that many expats over the next few years (if they weren't smart enough to already have moved out of Argentina) will end up moving out of the country.

Some ex-pats say silly things like they will never leave Argentina. Or have a significant other or family there and not want to leave. But the situation is as such that eventually most people will "cry uncle" and wise up and leave Argentina for a more stable life. I'm still in the camp that says we will NEVER see real estate so cheap like after the correlito. Much like the real estate crash in the USA in 2011'ish, I believe that was a once in a lifetime chance to pick up prime real estate so cheap.

Not to say prices can dip again but you'll NEVER see prices so cheap per m2 like it was then. IMHO.

Prices of properties depend on the value of the local currency and earning potential in us dollars . Wages since 2018 have been slashed about 50% in us dollars since their peak in January 2018 . Buenos Aires property prices while still listed very high have currently a oversupply of apartments for sale and low demand . People can hold out for a while but not forever and if the crisis continues prices in us dollars will go down substantially . Caracas Venezuela just 8 years ago had the most expensive real estate in us dollars per metre of Latin America reaching close to US$ 10,000 a metre in the best neighbourhoods .
In 2009 by this article Caracas was dearer than Dubai and London .

https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/16/why-is-caracas-latin-americas-most-expensive-city/

The second article is the reality today

https://www.thephuketnews.com/venezuela-ghost-properties-68822.php

Caracas now has the cheapest real estate in Latin America for a major city and maybe the world . When you have hyperinflation and a massive currency devaluation prices of fixed assets in us dollars like real estate go down substantially .

 

[Joglide]

Its true that property speculation bubbles such as that which priced Japan's imperial palace as the equivalent of real estate in all California was bound to burst. Tulip booms and dot com frenzies only last as long as hysteria can be sustained. International investment capital helps to keep big city prices high in places like London but as Perry says external factors such as economic downturn can sent prices into a nosedive (eg Dublin) where the expansion of housing or office space was unrealistic. That said, real estate is one hedge against price inflation even with its low liquidity. Prices must have to soften if priced in (say) US dollars if the dollar remains fairly robust and domestic currency inflation is high but then again if owners can hold out for higher rents and many people have necessarily to sell and buy in the same market (somewhere to live) then house prices can become a lot stickier than many other goods. Argentina remains I think comparatively cheap in international terms as somewhere to live either as a buyer or as a renter for people will a stable and especially dollar based income, so I would be interested to know from people if they have any evidence of expats and others selling and leaving in significant numbers. My intuitive impression from postings is that more people are keen to come here and to settle with some kind of residency, worrying about immigration rather than emigration issues?

 

[RichardP]

Anyone interested in a cheap apartment in La Boca? 40ish square meters, 1 bedroom located a few blocks from La Usina del Arte and a couple from El Obrero. Not the best neighborhood by any means but could be a good deal for somebody looking for a pied a terre fairly centrally located in BA. PM me for details.
This was my mother-in-law's place and hasn't been occupied in a while. Comes with the leaky pipes upstairs, an inept and corrupt administration and barking dogs. If you want to live like a local, here is the place to do it.
The gas was fixed after more than 2 years so that's not a worry, for now.

 

[MatameBA]

Argentina remains I think comparatively cheap in international terms as somewhere to live either as a buyer or as a renter for people will a stable and especially dollar based income, so I would be interested to know from people if they have any evidence of expats and others selling and leaving in significant numbers. My intuitive impression from postings is that more people are keen to come here and to settle with some kind of residency, worrying about immigration rather than emigration issues?

I'm not sure if there are official "expat exodus" numbers, but almost all the expat friends I had (who said they would NEVER leave) left long ago. Most didn't leave due to the country's economic issues. Most left because they simply got bored with BA. Argentina had its turn as the "hot" expat destination. Times change. Trends change. People constantly want something new.

And yes, BA might still be cheap compared to many major cities. But it's now expensive enough that it's no longer as attractive as an expat destination. The expat dream is the luxury apartment for $50k USD close to the beach — not a studio apartment in BA. Whether or not that $50k beach villa exists is another story. But that's what people go in search for.

And I could be wrong, but I don't think most people posting here about visas are necessarily in the market for an apartment. They seem to be looking for a short-term adventure, not a permanent or even part-time home. Of course, I could be wrong, but that's the impression I get.

 

[Johnny]

Anyone interested in a cheap apartment in La Boca? 40ish square meters, 1 bedroom located a few blocks from La Usina del Arte and a couple from El Obrero. Not the best neighborhood by any means but could be a good deal for somebody looking for a pied a terre fairly centrally located in BA. PM me for details.
This was my mother-in-law's place and hasn't been occupied in a while. Comes with the leaky pipes upstairs, an inept and corrupt administration and barking dogs. If you want to live like a local, here is the place to do it.
The gas was fixed after more than 2 years so that's not a worry, for now.

My pet beagle is aflutter with interest.

 

[earlyretirement]

I'm not sure if there are official "expat exodus" numbers, but almost all the expat friends I had (who said they would NEVER leave) left long ago. Most didn't leave due to the country's economic issues. Most left because they simply got bored with BA. Argentina had its turn as the "hot" expat destination. Times change. Trends change. People constantly want something new.

And yes, BA might still be cheap compared to many major cities. But it's now expensive enough that it's no longer as attractive as an expat destination. The expat dream is the luxury apartment for $50k USD close to the beach — not a studio apartment in BA. Whether or not that $50k beach villa exists is another story. But that's what people go in search for.

And I could be wrong, but I don't think most people posting here about visas are necessarily in the market for an apartment. They seem to be looking for a short-term adventure, not a permanent or even part-time home. Of course, I could be wrong, but that's the impression I get.

BA is ok to visit for the occasional trip but I don't have ANY desire to live there full time. I do enjoy visiting the city and always will but to be honest, the airfare down there is always really expensive. I can fly to Europe for a few hundred dollars as many airlines have fare wars and from both the East and West coast you can fly to many destinations in Europe for $300 to $500 (https://www.secretflying.com or https://boardingarea.com ). There was just a round-trip airfare from NYC to Paris for $266. You can go to Spain or Portugal and eat like a king for really cheap.

Even at 45 pesos to $1US Argentina is no real bargain because with inflation they just keep adjusting the prices.

I don't think you can use comparisons of Venezuela and what real estate prices were like there vs. Buenos Aires as it's totally an apples/watermelons type of comparison.

 

[perry]

https://www.infobae.com/economia/20...-caida-de-554-por-ciento/?outputType=amp-type


In the month of March 2019 there were less than 200 deeds in Buenos Aires with credit . In the same month last year the figure was nearly 10 times more a massive drop. Credit while a small part of the real estate market here is of fundamental importance as it is a impulsor of real estate investment , and prices. By the end of 2019 there will be a seachange in the market when we know who will be the next president . If Christina wins expect prices of real estate to drop more drastically as the money markets worldwide will react very negatively to this news and will punish Argentina .

 

[Rich One]

https://www.infobae.com/economia/20...-caida-de-554-por-ciento/?outputType=amp-type


In the month of March 2019 there were less than 200 deeds in Buenos Aires with credit . In the same month last year the figure was nearly 10 times more a massive drop. Credit while a small part of the real estate market here is of fundamental importance as it is a impulsor of real estate investment , and prices. By the end of 2019 there will be a seachange in the market when we know who will be the next president . If Christina wins expect prices of real estate to drop more drastically as the money markets worldwide will react very negatively to this news and will punish Argentina .

Article in Clarin today,: properties in BA going down...!!

Durante el mes pasado, comenzó a bajar el precio de las propiedades en Buenos Aires

Con todo, una pequeña retracción en los precios no es suficiente para generar demanda y la venta de inmuebles cayó a la mitad con respecto al año pasado

www.infobae.com

Plus an opinion from Martin Huergo..

" To invest in real estate you have to wait for the final crisis, the final devaluation, the spiraling inflation, that's when the prices in dollars of the property plummet ... now no one is going to invest now because you are paying dearly, something that you are going to to be able to pay much cheaper in time of deep crisis like the one that is going to come, with a high shortage of dollars, and a Market totally depressed and desperate to sell..."

 

[perry]

Article in Clarin today,: properties in BA going down...!!

Durante el mes pasado, comenzó a bajar el precio de las propiedades en Buenos Aires

Con todo, una pequeña retracción en los precios no es suficiente para generar demanda y la venta de inmuebles cayó a la mitad con respecto al año pasado

www.infobae.com

Plus an opinion from Martin Huergo..

" To invest in real estate you have to wait for the final crisis, the final devaluation, the spiraling inflation, that's when the prices in dollars of the property plummet ... now no one is going to invest now because you are paying dearly, something that you are going to to be able to pay much cheaper in time of deep crisis like the one that is going to come, with a high shortage of dollars, and a Market totally depressed and desperate to sell..."

Many people foolishly believe that property prices will always go up . Australia is now seeing the effects of this with prices in Sydney and Melbourne up to 20% off their peak . Property prices in Buenos Aires to 2018 were close to US$ 3,000 a metre a very high price when considering the earning potential of most argentinians . Of course there are some buildings in exclusive neighbourhoods that will always fetch top dollar but when you take a look at what is out there for sale and the dire condition of many apartments it demotivates many buyers . The real estate market is technically stalled and some neighbourhoods more affected than others . The best neighbourhoods that are holding on best in this crisis are Palermo Nuevo and Palermo Chico as there is a limited supply of good apartments for sale in these neighbourhoods and has a sustained demand from its wealthy residents . Recoleta, Puerto Madero . Congreso, San Nicolas are seeing much less demand and a lot of supply for sale .