When Will The Peso Hit 10?

[French jurist]

About 7/10 days for the dollar to reach 9 again with the aguinaldo?
If it does not, could it be that the actual Blue rate is artificial?

 

[khairyexpat]

Correct when Joe says a Bear market is ahead the dollar will rally...again.

Joe is always RIGHT.
I am waiting patiently for his word, when he upgrades the title of this thread to 13.

 

[Alicia karr]

Seems artificial because if you read the articles of today and yesterday they also say there's been almost no trading for fear of AFIP. Seems the govt is threatening to shut down the cuevas if they don't keep the price low. But (obviously) no one with dollars and any flexibility is selling at this (seemingly) undervalued price.

 

[cbonanni]

K is blaming the farmers for holding soy crops. Of course she needs her 35% cut to pay the fuel bill. The central bank is quickly nearing US$1 BILLION in dollar purchases this year. Not to mention ANSE. The fuel bill this year is only US$3.9 BILLION.

Fuel lines , gas shortages , rolling gas outs in winter , industrial cut offs. They say they cannot find cargo's of LNG , but the fact is they cannot PAY for it. Why ? Because they have no credit and must pay cash up front , before the vessel is loaded. Then wait weeks for it to arrive , be unloaded and then be distributed.

How many votes will the impending fuel crisis cost k in October ? How cold will the winter be ?

The blue dollar will soon increase with a roar. Cold hard dollars. The pesos we can burn to stay warm.

 

[PhilipDT]

I'm sure it'll pick up again. Just wish I would have sold a bit more at 10. Oh well

 

[mariano-BCN]

sorry folks, I hope I'm wrong but I don't see any signals the dollar (and the euro for us, europeans!) is going to rise again. I'm afraid Cristina has enough financials resources to keep it down :-(

 

[khairyexpat]

sorry folks, I hope I'm wrong but I don't see any signals the dollar (and the euro for us, europeans!) is going to rise again. I'm afraid Cristina has enough financials resources to keep it down :-(

Dollar Blue (& Euro to an extent) is the world view of the Peso.
The whole world (including Argentina), trades on World Markets at this Blue Rate.
The universal world (mundial) view is too big to be influenced (or manipulated) by the Peso.

Official Peso is a local (Argentinean) event & is 100% controlled locally.
Argentina does set it arbitrarily & unilaterally @ 5 or any other value (artificially), if & when they want to (even without Dollar reserves, just keep printing). Rest of the world have no say in that.

 

[French jurist]

Does the govt need absolutely to inject cash to lower the Blue rate? I guess not. The govt of course knows the effect of the half aguinaldo, elections are 4 months away, there's tension with the agropecuario sector about the dollar rate, etc.
That's why if the Blue rate doesn't move upwards in 10 days, then the explanation might be it's artificially lowered. After all, they just need to tell the major cuevas (source for the Blue rate?) that they don't want the Blue rate to go above 8.50, otherwise all their families will get a tax audit, etc. In exchange, they could tell those cuevas they will be left free to operate (they make money on the buying/selling spread anyway, no loss).

We'll know for sure during the next days!

 

[Joe]

We'll know for sure during the next days!

Why? What is going to change in the next few days?

 

[French jurist]

Why? What is going to change in the next few days?

The medio aguinaldo.

Maybe the Blue rate went lower because some businesses changed dollars to pay the aguinaldo. And once it will start getting paid, the Blue rate will rise like in December 2012. Unless there's a surprise...