camberiu
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- Mar 24, 2012
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In a longer time horizon, I don't disagree with you. Despite the huge crisis, the institutions are working. The police is investigating, indicting and arresting people. The courts are convicting and sentencing. The press is covering and investigating the events and publishing their findings. People on the streets are outraged and protesting. On that angle, there is a lot of positive things happening.
I think this Lula, Dilma and the Worker's Party experience ruling the country has brought a lot of political maturity to the country. People used to fantasize about the "people's heroes" of the sixties and how those former Marxist guerrillas were idealists, pure and really cared about the poor. I think their sting running the country has shattered that image and showed to the even most romantic and naive left wing sympathizer how corrupt, ruthless and devious these people really are. This is killing the last remnants of that old view of evil capitalists vs. good communists that still existed in Brazil.
I also agree that it is highly unlikely that the USA will raise interest rates anytime soon.
Still, I think Brazil will go through a very rough patch over the next several years. Dilma will not be able to inflate her way out of this. The Real is a currency that has brought monetary stability to the country for over 20 years, and became a very loved national symbol, like the Brazilian flag. The people really care about the Real and are very attached to it and what it represents. To try to destroy the Real is to commit political suicide. Lula knows this, and that is why he forced Joaquim Levy down Dilma's throat. If it was up to Dilma, she would just turn on the printing presses. But Lula is well aware that if she destroys the Real, not only she will probably not finish her term, but her, his party and even Lula himself will be regarded as the scums of the earth and be treated like lepers. So she is being forced to adopt austerity measures. This means that there will be some really hard and painful years ahead. Really hard and really painful. Yes, the sun will rise in Brazil again one day. But it will be a very rough night until the next dawn.
I think this Lula, Dilma and the Worker's Party experience ruling the country has brought a lot of political maturity to the country. People used to fantasize about the "people's heroes" of the sixties and how those former Marxist guerrillas were idealists, pure and really cared about the poor. I think their sting running the country has shattered that image and showed to the even most romantic and naive left wing sympathizer how corrupt, ruthless and devious these people really are. This is killing the last remnants of that old view of evil capitalists vs. good communists that still existed in Brazil.
I also agree that it is highly unlikely that the USA will raise interest rates anytime soon.
Still, I think Brazil will go through a very rough patch over the next several years. Dilma will not be able to inflate her way out of this. The Real is a currency that has brought monetary stability to the country for over 20 years, and became a very loved national symbol, like the Brazilian flag. The people really care about the Real and are very attached to it and what it represents. To try to destroy the Real is to commit political suicide. Lula knows this, and that is why he forced Joaquim Levy down Dilma's throat. If it was up to Dilma, she would just turn on the printing presses. But Lula is well aware that if she destroys the Real, not only she will probably not finish her term, but her, his party and even Lula himself will be regarded as the scums of the earth and be treated like lepers. So she is being forced to adopt austerity measures. This means that there will be some really hard and painful years ahead. Really hard and really painful. Yes, the sun will rise in Brazil again one day. But it will be a very rough night until the next dawn.