Ar Peso Is The Worst Investment (Currency) In 2014, Surprise

[garryl]

Compared now against 2003 when first came to BsAs, for an expat, everything was cheap in 2003 and rent wasn't that cheap because the influx of the tourists, and now everything is expensive but not the rent.

Next 1-2 years, could be a crash, brings the situation back to 2003/2004.

 

[EdRooney]

There is a clear reason why some people have a hard time seeing the difference between the 80s, 90s, 2001 and now: it's because they belong to or are surrounded by the classes that are least affected by the real crises when they come.

For example, Esteban spoke about how bad the 80s were, and true, with 800% hyper-inflation, the 80s were no picnic. But it is notable that he points to the 80s and not the 90s: because it was in the 90s that the lower income groups (aka the vast majority of Argentines) suffered tremendously: with rampant long term unemployment, no social safety net, serious widespread malnutrition problems, etc, etc. Yet to many upper class Argentines, these were the rockin' 90s, pizza y champán... it was no crisis for them.

To emphasise the point, look at how much we focus on 2001-02 as being the crisis. Why? Because of the corralito. So when most Argentines are suffering terrible economic times, who cares, rock and roll... but as soon as the monied classes start to be affected with a corralito, then it's a problem.

The same is true now. On this site we hear constant gripes about economic crises, buitres, the blue dollar soap opera, blah blah blah. That's because most of us are in contact with a small sliver of the population that lives in Gran BA, but that's not the economy that most Argentines live. You tell most Argentines that this looks anything similar to 2001 and prepare to be smacked, because it's downright insulting.

 

[ghost]

I was talking to an architect friend yesterday- he told me that two former students of his have designed 40 new 10 story or taller apartment buildings in the last few years. All built, and departmentos sold, usually in advance.
Every neighborhood I am in has new buildings going up left and right. New cars everywhere. There are more motorcycle and car dealers in Nunez and Olivos and San Isidro than in most US cities. The big, expensive restaurants are constantly full. Clothing stores, shoe stores, and jewelry stores are all selling stuff.
People try to tell me they are spending so they wont be stuck with pesos, but thats baloney.
If you are really broke, you save your money for food, not spurge on a big screen tv.
The economy here is far from perfect, and plenty of people are hurting, but its nothing like 2007, much less 2001.

The Enigma of Argentina continues.

 

[Matiasba]

You hit the nail on the head Ed.
The problem with this forum is that they are not any expat, they are upper middle class expats from a rich country, you cant compare upper middle class from a european or north american country with Argentina.
You expect to have the same things here, have the same habits. For example: eating outside in this country, for the middle class, is something atypical. Maybe the upper classes during these last years increased it and do it frequently. But normally eating outside is something for once or twice a month, more is considered luxury.
And like that everything. You expats come to a country like Argentina and expect a first world country. Well, we are not. We had only ten years ago more than the half of the country under the poverty line!! expect a country like that.

And of course the majority of the people you interact are not common people from here, are people who travel, who speak english, educated, etc. That is, upper middle class too, not common argentine people, not low or middle class argentines. Those low or middle class is the social base of the Ks. There you will find real peronismo. Thats why they still, after 12 years, have 40% acceptance. Those who bought a car or a moto, or even a notebook or their first AC. Thats a lot of people. If you go down the social pyramid, they are a lot better than they ever were.

You are upper middle class expats that interact with upper middle class argentines.

 

[Matt84]

You hit the nail on the head Ed.
The problem with this forum is that they are not any expat, they are upper middle class expats from a rich country, you cant compare upper middle class from a european or north american country with Argentina.
You expect to have the same things here, have the same habits. For example: eating outside in this country, for the middle class, is something atypical. Maybe the upper classes during these last years increased it and do it frequently. But normally eating outside is something for once or twice a month, more is considered luxury.
And like that everything. You expats come to a country like Argentina and expect a first world country. Well, we are not. We had only ten years ago more than the half of the country under the poverty line!! expect a country like that.

And of course the majority of the people you interact are not common people from here, are people who travel, who speak english, educated, etc. That is, upper middle class too, not common argentine people, not low or middle class argentines. Those low or middle class is the social base of the Ks. There you will find real peronismo. Thats why they still, after 12 years, have 40% acceptance. Those who bought a car or a moto, or even a notebook or their first AC. Thats a lot of people. If you go down the social pyramid, they are a lot better than they ever were.

You are upper middle class expats that interact with upper middle class argentines.

You're actually right, or rather what you say kinda makes sense, but it's certainly not the end of the story. And in the era of the internetz in the most literate country in Latin America, there's no excuse for isolation, for not seeing what is right there to see if you so want to: the rest of the World: the magical word... "Abroad"

1) Let's talk about eating out for a second. Where do you think more people have the chance to eat out on a daily basis: Stockholm, New York or Shanghai? Paris or Tokyo? Try not to google the answer, think about it for a second, then try and find the answer and tell us how not having to prepare one's own food is such a luxury - Worldwide. (btw I love cooking, that's not the point)

2) If the people who support Real Paeronismo need to remain poor in order to support Real Paeronismo, don't you see a kind of vicious cycle instead of a virtuous one? You mention about the lower middle class true peronistas getting their dirt-bike or AC (wow!) for the first time. How is that different from the time Evita would give away food processors and maybe even fridges? What is the hidden cost of those free natsee-funded siemens fridges in the 50s and in 24 cuotas sin interes heavily subsidized tierra del fuego electronics in 2010?

3) You talk about poor people's first laptop. That's great, and let me remind you that Uruguay was the first country to outright give away laptops to the most needy, instead of subsidizing them for the whole population. Of what consequence can that be when middle class people cannot buy smartphones at market price? The computer literacy of the population as a whole lags behind even poorer countries than Argentina: countries that don't penalize the importing of electronics.

I am not a Libertarian, I believe Freedom is the last "need" that can be achieved only after peace, security and law have been established and secured.

I studied a little bit of Argentine history and I believe Argentina only achieved internal Peace in the 1860, perhaps security some time around, but as they progressed towards implementing law, security and peace fell over again (way before the time of the Colonel who called himself General). So I don't advocate Freedom for Argentina just yet. I'd like to see security first, and rule of law, and the party you defend doesn't seem interested in either.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

1860???? Right!

http://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batalla_de_los_Corrales_Viejos

http://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquista_del_Desierto

 

[Matt84]

1860???? Right!

http://es.m.wikipedi...Corrales_Viejos

http://es.m.wikipedi...ta_del_Desierto

corrales viejos seems to be the LAST real civil conflict, my point.
The expansion towards patagonia is proof that the civil conflicts within the core provinces had been resolved by then.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

"There you will find real peronismo. Thats why they still, after 12 years, have 40% acceptance"

Do you want to make a bet the current govt won't gain 40% of the vote in the fist round in October? Charity of your choice. 200 pesos.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

"There you will find real peronismo. Thats why they still, after 12 years, have 40% acceptance"

Do you want to make a bet the current govt won't gain 40% of the vote in the fist round in October? Charity of your choice. 200 pesos.

Matías simply committed an unintentional but understandable malapropism. What he meant to say was that ""There you will find real peronismo. That's why they still, after 12 years, have 40% inflation."

 

[EdRooney]

Bummer that we have degraded to the usual level of debating Peronismo. Makes sense though, the less well-defined a term is, the more we seem to like writing life-or-death diatribes in pro or contra (eg: "Capitalism vs Communism!")

That said, the argument in favour of the latest incarnation of the beast is that the Peronists in office did a great job pulling us out of the hole dug by the last Peronists in office. Not much to defend there.

Now I shall cede the floor to Matías who will educate us for the gazilionth time on why only his Peronists are real Peronists.