Ar Peso Is The Worst Investment (Currency) In 2014, Surprise

[ariel81]

The economy is in its best shape from a long time ago. After Peron (1973) we had Rodrigazo, then the dictatorship that froze salaries (a classic "ajuste") then Alfonsin, all good intentions but with hyperinflation, then Menem (with the dictatorship, worst time of the country ever) and then this K era, with the lower inflation of this country since the 50s (excepting Menem, but that was very particular), no unemployment, no debt, inclusion, growth. Of ocurse is far from perfect, we have inflation which is a big problem for everything. But this country has a big history with inflation, so some inflation is allowed considering other variables that are ok.
If we hadnt inflation, with all the inclusion, with people getting out of poverty, with low unemployment, said these by serious people not INDEC, etc, this wouldnt be Argentina.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

Bummer that we have degraded to the usual level of debating Peronismo. Makes sense though, the less well-defined a term is, the more we seem to like writing life-or-death diatribes in pro or contra (eg: "Capitalism vs Communism!")

That said, the argument in favour of the latest incarnation of the beast is that the Peronists in office did a great job pulling us out of the hole dug by the last Peronists in office. Not much to defend there.

Now I shall cede the floor to Matías who will educate us for the gazilionth time on why only his Peronists are real Peronists.

Pretty hard to debate the economic realities of a large section of the population that most of us have no contact with and have no reliable statistics to use as a metric to understand. Nothing for crime, economic indicators or anything else. All we have are anecdotes, government lies, private interest group lies and dogmatic professions of faith.

Privately generated statistics are as worthless as public ones, so what to debate?

The greatest problem I can see in Argentina is that the lack of independence of every important institution the country has. Independent from govt influence and independent from other vested interested groups. I suppose it breeds and healthy streak of anti-authoritarianism?

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

ps...mati...

no debt - Nice of the chinese to hand over those billions of dollars gratis. Aren't they the kindest, most benevolent of people! Again, the classic comment from you which will never be answered. Again. Govt debt good....macri debt bad? Those are the lyrics of that song aren't they? Macri borrows from the markets...let's nail him. Govt borrows from China...that debt doesn't exist? Huh?

no unemployment - What's the definition of an employed person? Cartonero? Pancho seller? Argentina has no problem with poverty and lack of ways to earn money to live? I don't believe that you even believe that.

 

[jp]

Nothing for crime...

The di tella victimisation study is pretty decent . Like any victimisation study it has it's limitations, but it does a good job of describing how many people are directly affected by crime. Imperfect, but better than media reporting, anecdotal evidence and what's officially recorded by the police.

Latest version here: http://www.utdt.edu/download.php?fname=_141719034953809300.pdf

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

The di tella victimisation study is pretty decent . Like any victimisation study it has it's limitations, but it does a good job of describing how many people are directly affected by crime. Imperfect, but better than media reporting, anecdotal evidence and what's officially recorded by the police.

Latest version here: http://www.utdt.edu/...34953809300.pdf

Se estima que el 37.9% de los hogares en 40 centros urbanos del​

país fue víctima de al menos un delito en los últimos 12 meses.

Frightening, had never read report this previously.

 

[ElQueso]

There actually is quite a bit of work available, as I've mentioned quite a bit here, maybe the only thing Matias and I agree on. Unfortunately for Argentina and the people who perform that work, most of what's truly "available" is menial, and much of it back-breaking work. After all, what else would one expect when a country implements all of the policies that it implements, from draconian (from the employers' point of view) labor laws and price, currency and import/export controls? Labor is cheap here because of the economic policies and the mentality of everyone who says there is enough work for everyone. The one figure I do believe from the government is fairly low unemployment, knowing many, many people who work in those jobs, seeing how when someone comes from Paraguay, for example, that they can get a job within a week of arriving. It's a shame people consider this gainful employment, though.

Kind of cracks me up, a comment Matias made earlier about us expats being only involved in Argentina from the middle classes upward. Certainly isn't true of me. At least, I'm not confined to that "class" of acquaintances and/or friends. I've asked a couple of times how many poor people Matias knows - and I mean outside of his studies of Argentina. I've always wondered exactly what material Matias studied on Argentina. I.e., what is the provenance of the material he studied. Considering that he continues to defend this government and make statements like the lowest inflation and poverty ever (at least, since Peron), actually believing the government - seems to me he doesn't know much about his own fellow countrymen's plight...

And again, with 40% inflation, that's good? Around $1800 pesos a month (AFIP's figure from April at least, don't know what it is now) even at the official rate ($211 USD), that's a ridiculous sum of money to try to exist on here in this inflated environment. I can't believe that Matias would actually try to defend that number when he says he doesn't like this government either, yet continues to defend it anyway.

So about "Peronism". I agree that there is not a single definition of what such a goofy string of policies looks like. That's part of the problem. Everyone who calls themselves a Peronist is somehow trying to tap into a legend that has no real basis and put out their own kind of tyrannical control over the country in its name.

I was watching a TEDTalks series yesterday about the great wealth divergence that used to exist between (as examples) the USA and China, and the UK and India. Both China and India were horribly affected by the colonial powers in previous centuries, far more powerfully than Argentina was ever affected in my opinion. And yet, somehow, these countries have decided that they aren't going to play the poverty game any more. The divergence is pretty much gone as far as productivity goes and poverty is following (they just have so many more people it will take a long time I think to get that under control).

Asian countries (including South Korea and Japan), who were involved in horrible wars somehow managed to get their s**t together. What was the common denominator between Japan, South Korea and India (China being a somewhat special case)?

Niall Ferguson says there are 6 things the West did to rise up over the East, starting around 1500 or so, that made Europe come from behind the Asians at that point, to rise well over the Asians by 1970:

1) Competition (political and economic)
2) The Scientific Revolution (Asia was pretty well moribund where change is counted)
3) Property rights (he uses an example of indentured servitude which sometimes ended in land grants as opposed to continuing with the feudal peonage)
4) Modern Medicine
5) The Consumer Society (what it seems everyone, even Westerners, consider to be such a bad thing, but the reality is without markets economies can't grow)
6) the Work Ethic.

Many people look at that last one as something that seemed to come from Protestantism, and while that may have been one origin some time ago, it is no longer the case. In fact, the countries I mentioned above are now much more workaholic, and therefore productive, than the North America and Europe are. The wealth divergence is closing and if North America and Europe don't get off their laureled behinds and do something, we will see another divergence with us on the bottom side again.

One of the things attributed to aid in accomplishing the 6 items above was the rule of law directed toward personal and economic freedoms.

At the end of Ferguson's talk, he is specifically asked about Latin America (because he concentrated on Asia). He was asked if Latin America was considered part of the "West". His response was interesting. You could tell he was embarrassed to give an answer. He hemmed and hawed a bit and then mentioned that he'd once asked a friend of his, a professor who concentrated in "Western Studies", this same question and the professor said (according to Ferguson): "Well, i don't know...I'll have to think about that." Basically Ferguson said that right now, with two exceptions (he mentioned Chile and Brasil) that Latin America wasn't really showing the signs of all six of the same things that helped the "West" rise so far above Asia and that countries in Asia are now embracing.

He also mentions very specifically the wars that Germany and South Korea as prime examples of countries that went through horrible times, were actually broken in two, and remained under differing influences afterward. East Germany vs West Germany, North Korea vs South Korea. His conclusion was that upon embracing the rule of law and the 6 items mentioned above, West Germany and South Korea both rose far above their counterparts to success.

I keep going back to "grow up Argentina" and stop acting like a lazy little boy who wants everything without doing what is required to give its people a better life. Quit blaming everyone else, quit looking for a free handout, quit trying to force things through attempted authoritarianism and enact the rule of law, good property rights (that includes, BTW, the ability to keep a good portion of the money you earned, and to earn something meaningful as a culture, not as separate classes) and get that work ethic going (Matias, you can't possibly tell me with a straight face that Argentina has a good work ethic, overall).

On the other side - the US at least (and I feel Europe) needs to do the same thing because it's sinking rapidly in relation to Asia and it's not all lost yet, but it doesn't take much to continue sinking to the depths of idiocy and lose what it has gained over the last 200 years.

Let's all be equal in economic terms. We'll all be a lot happier.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

Didn't South Korea and Germany both receive massive investment from the US, in order to create successful democracies on the peripheries of Soviet spheres of influence. Neither where self contain miracles.

Omitting the military expansion of empires and trade zones in that list is strange, especially given that Ferguson believes that foreign incursions are valid, for moral reasons as I understand it.

Ferguson represents a revisionist view of history and in particular the british Empire and the American "Empíre" which playts well with those on the American right he has previously advised. That's an observation, not a criticism. Interesting character, but certainly not universally accepted.

A valid analysis of the problems caused by peronism and populism in Argentina would have to surface the inequalities caused by foreign interest's economic policy in Argentina previously and why Peron became popular. "Broken in two" is a fairly emotive term, it would be better in Argentina's case to look at the massive debt legacy caused by a financial illiterate (not their biggest crime, of course) dictatorship and the destruction of manufacturing capability (something which was developed and grown in S.Korea and Germany) by the same. Further destruction of these capabilities was enacted by Menem, there is an argument for private sector buyout of public enterprise but he managed to sell these companies due to lack of regulation and institutional independence to any cowboy with a hat. Now we have the predictable populist pendulum swing reaction to these clumsy measures, rather than creating the conditions for a solid manufacturing service economy they are artificially trying to create it.

Of course, "grow up Argentina" completely ignores history it's prescriptive child like simplicity.

I don't even think Ferguson would be on for ignoring history...

 

[scotttswan]

ps...mati...

no debt - Nice of the chinese to hand over those billions of dollars gratis. Aren't they the kindest, most benevolent of people! Again, the classic comment from you which will never be answered. Again. Govt debt good....macri debt bad? Those are the lyrics of that song aren't they? Macri borrows from the markets...let's nail him. Govt borrows from China...that debt doesn't exist? Huh?

no unemployment - What's the definition of an employed person? Cartonero? Pancho seller? Argentina has no problem with poverty and lack of ways to earn money to live? I don't believe that you even believe that.

You missed out the borrowing from Venezuela.

 

[ariel81]

You hit the nail on the head Ed.
The problem with this forum is that they are not any expat, they are upper middle class expats from a rich country, you cant compare upper middle class from a european or north american country with Argentina.
You expect to have the same things here, have the same habits. For example: eating outside in this country, for the middle class, is something atypical. Maybe the upper classes during these last years increased it and do it frequently. But normally eating outside is something for once or twice a month, more is considered luxury.
And like that everything. You expats come to a country like Argentina and expect a first world country. Well, we are not. We had only ten years ago more than the half of the country under the poverty line!! expect a country like that.

And of course the majority of the people you interact are not common people from here, are people who travel, who speak english, educated, etc. That is, upper middle class too, not common argentine people, not low or middle class argentines. Those low or middle class is the social base of the Ks. There you will find real peronismo. Thats why they still, after 12 years, have 40% acceptance. Those who bought a car or a moto, or even a notebook or their first AC. Thats a lot of people. If you go down the social pyramid, they are a lot better than they ever were.

You are upper middle class expats that interact with upper middle class argentines.

Im a middle class argentinian,im not an expat,I agree with you about what you say of many of the expats here,but im not a foreigner and im I´m certainly,and sadly,not upper class
When my family left Europe to come here,they where dirt poor,ignorant and fleeing the pogroms,and despite that,they were never peronists,jews,tend not to like fascist authoritarian rulers like Peron

 

[ElQueso]

[...]
Of course, "grow up Argentina" completely ignores history it's prescriptive child like simplicity.
[...]

"Grow up Argentina" refers to the mindset of the people, not the country itself. If you feel that the Argentine people and the way that they have governed themselves (irrespective of relatively minor interference from the outside, as proved in another scientific study that I've mentioned previously), then I feel you are ignoring history.

"Grow up" means quit blaming other people for your problems and actually enact some policies that 1) don't keep the people poor, 2) offer actual opportunities for growth and 3) reduces the amount of corruption that a large number of Argentinos feel is OK, as long as they get what they want (a poll that was reported on a year or two ago), 4) believing in and accomplishing true rule of law and 5) establishing an actual work ethic, where the poor don't depend on the corrupt to take money from the rich to make them feel like they are getting something that they never have gotten.