garryl
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- Dec 17, 2012
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Just read an article by the economist at Chinese Embassy in BsAs.
(CFK just ordered about 400 trains from China to replace the old
wooden train from Belgium about 100 years ago, about 406 coaches
will be replaced with modern trains from China with TV and current commuinicaion
devices)
Anyway, here is the economy summary:
Argentina's (2013) economy's growth will drop to 2.2% from 8.9% (2012), and the inflation will be
around 26% (25% last year). Argentina is the ONLY South America country with no growth and
high inflation. High inflation is usually combined with high growth. So CFK is really f** the country.
3 factors cause hight inflation:
1)debt, this year Argentina has to pay 7 billion in debt. Compared to the European countries,
the debt ratio is not high, at 40%. But the AR credit rating is way way lower than the European
countries for what Ar did in the past.
2)over printing currency, banking law was changed so the central bank can subsidize the programs
(by printing)
3)too many government programs and pension programs, they have to print more pesos, to
keep things going. CFKs got stimulas programs.
It is going to be a bad year for Ar with 2.2% groith and 13% drop in soy bean production. Sh*t
is going to happen soon. ( this is not in the report)
The other high inflation country is Venezuela, which already controled its inflation under 13%.
All other Latin America countries keep their inflation under 10%.
The real growth of last year is about 1% if you factor everything.
On the real estate front, the # of transaction (notary) has been shrinking for 12 month continuously.
Mainly because of the media (US$) is being controlled, and foreign buyers are trying to dump their
flats and could not find a local buyer wtih sufficient US$.
Argentian lost 18 billion US$ in 9 month. With what happening, the outflow is faster.
(CFK just ordered about 400 trains from China to replace the old
wooden train from Belgium about 100 years ago, about 406 coaches
will be replaced with modern trains from China with TV and current commuinicaion
devices)
Anyway, here is the economy summary:
Argentina's (2013) economy's growth will drop to 2.2% from 8.9% (2012), and the inflation will be
around 26% (25% last year). Argentina is the ONLY South America country with no growth and
high inflation. High inflation is usually combined with high growth. So CFK is really f** the country.
3 factors cause hight inflation:
1)debt, this year Argentina has to pay 7 billion in debt. Compared to the European countries,
the debt ratio is not high, at 40%. But the AR credit rating is way way lower than the European
countries for what Ar did in the past.
2)over printing currency, banking law was changed so the central bank can subsidize the programs
(by printing)
3)too many government programs and pension programs, they have to print more pesos, to
keep things going. CFKs got stimulas programs.
It is going to be a bad year for Ar with 2.2% groith and 13% drop in soy bean production. Sh*t
is going to happen soon. ( this is not in the report)
The other high inflation country is Venezuela, which already controled its inflation under 13%.
All other Latin America countries keep their inflation under 10%.
The real growth of last year is about 1% if you factor everything.
On the real estate front, the # of transaction (notary) has been shrinking for 12 month continuously.
Mainly because of the media (US$) is being controlled, and foreign buyers are trying to dump their
flats and could not find a local buyer wtih sufficient US$.
Argentian lost 18 billion US$ in 9 month. With what happening, the outflow is faster.
