Argentina 2013 Economy

[Napoleon]

The economy in 2013 will do just FINE. Huge crop, Brazil reactivation and elections year (that means a lot of pesos for public spending) Will make the economy grow. FACT

It is funny to read and hear people saying that a crisis will come. I have been hearing that since 2004, next year.. next year.. and the economy will not stop growing.

20% controled inflation is a walk in the park for us Argentines. Anyone around in the begining of the 80's, late 80's, begining of the 90's will know what I'm talking about.

It has been 10 years since the last crisis and nothing happened...

Saludos.

This: http://en.mercopress.com/2013/01/24/brazilian-industry-claims-mercosur-is-paralyzed-and-blasts-argentina-s-illegal-barriers-on-trade

And this: http://www.businessinsider.com/argentina-soy-crop-suffers-from-flood-2013-1

It might not be business as usual after all. At any time, other Mercosur countries can just say "Basta!" (plus whatever one would say in Brazil) and if the soy suffers from late planting, there won't be so many greenbacks coming in from China. I still don't understand why the other countries has put up with the K Double Standard of doing business.

 

[lamarque]

This: http://en.mercopress...rriers-on-trade

And this: http://www.businessi...om-flood-2013-1

It might not be business as usual after all. At any time, other Mercosur countries can just say "Basta!" (plus whatever one would say in Brazil) and if the soy suffers from late planting, there won't be so many greenbacks coming in from China. I still don't understand why the other countries has put up with the K Double Standard of doing business.

Really you don't know?, is very simple in fact, brazil biggest market for industrial goods is Argentina they are not really efficient producing industrial goods with hight added value and for sure not efficient enought to compete in a world scale , they sell to the rest of the world just comodities, and to Argentina mainly product with hight added value, Argentina is a interesting market for Brasil because even having 5 times less population the Argentines consume a lot and spend a lot per capita and almost all this consume is market that brazil can provide withouth paying tax to export as they are in the Mercosur, so they will keep suporting BS of Kretina as for them is a very profitable comercial relationship, they sell all industrial goods to Argentina and they just buy very low value added product from Argentina (beside the cars that they export more than they import from Argentina anyway), plus they get a benefitial comercial balance so why would they say stop, for them is a win win situation even if they have to tolerate the Bs Kretina when she talk.

 

[ArgentinianGirl]

[font="Arial""]

The social pyramid is slowly removing all middle class from existence, the rich have already taken all their money out of the country and many will probably go live abroad for a few years until this madness is over.

[/font]
[font="Arial""] [/font]
[font="Arial""]I agree with you, the middle class is disappearing, the most worrying thing is that when you only have really rich people and sickly poor people all the values suddenly disappear and you stop living to start surviving. We are slowly turning into a jungle, you can already see aggression, violence and insecurity in the streets. I have never seen so many homeless people on the streets before. During the 90ths you used to know the homeless person in your neighborhood, all the neighbors knew her/his life story and most of them hand down their used clothes to him/her. The extremes are never healthy, it is unlucky that this government can't realize that a country is sustained not by the upper class or the lower class, but by the taxes and consumption power of the middle class, by killing the middle class you are only ruining a country. Unfortunately this mayhem is only a distraction finely executed by CFK and her associates to produce such a crisis that she will have no other choice but to renounce as a president and flee the country with billions of dollars shamelessly embezzled during her and her husband's periods in the presidency. Personally I consider that CFK thought that she would be expelled by a military putsch, unfortunately once she is gone a new government will have to take over and will have to derogate all of her delusional government assistance programs, that won’t happen quietly and riots are bound to happen.[/font]

 

[ArgentinianGirl]

They think it is just that the economy went awry with no idea why. The teacher finally got it. Was it an "Aha" moment for her that would change her approach to things? No, she was visibly upset. She said, "But it shouldn't BE that way, we should not have to think about economics, we should be able to give ourselves to CULTURE, to the arts, to opera, to education. We should not have to think about ecoomics!"

[font="Arial""]Sorry to sound aggressive but for me your teacher is ignorant, probably is not her fault entirely, the lack of economic education both at schools and at home is huge in this country, most people reach their adult age without a single idea about economy, finances and a solid plan for the future. For example I was talking with a friend over the phone, he is from Argentina but moved to Toulouse last year. He is pursuing his PhD and earns €1500 monthly, he spends €300 on rent, and with transportation, food and grocery store expenses he expends €1000. You would think that he is saving money for a rainy day and educating himself about investments, well, he isn't, he just live each day at the time without considering the future or the chances of losing his scholarship, he actually plans to live out of unemployment if that happens. He doesn't even study French because he spends most of his day with Spanish PhD students. In conclusion he is a little kid with money, nothing less and nothing more, and most people here are that, little kids with money. For example, while talking about retirement I expect to retire and to be able to maintain my lifestyle, to do so I need to be wise with my money earlier in life and consider all my options, that doesn’t mean being miserable, it means to expend my money in things that can give me future profit, for example acquiring useful skills, fixing my home, etc.[/font]

 

[arlean]

I sure don't mean to pick on Argentines. I just live in Argentina so that's who I'm talking with these days. I do know some very savvy Argentines as well. In fact, I learn everything I can from these smart people. Sadly they are the ones talking about vacating. But it is the same in the U.S. as Argentina but here is what is puzzling to me. Most people in the U.S., who think the goverment should be entrusted with everything, honestly believe there is no corruption and the politicians are looking out for them (no kidding, they do). By contrast, Argentines are more aware. That's what makes it puzzling. Why trust everything to a government that you feel sure is corrupted and that you already believe that you can't trust in the first place.

I didn't really get an economics education either though until I became interested on my own and started looking for knowledge independently. And I'm still learning, which is why I soak up all your analyses. I suspect that that formal education glitch is intentional. You can get people to take out loans, invest in stuff and do all kind of things if they don't understand economics. (And no I don't have a tinfoil hat!)

 

[ArgentinianGirl]

I didn't really get an economics education either though until I became interested on my own and started looking for knowledge independently. And I'm still learning, which is why I soak up all your analyses. I suspect that that formal education glitch is intentional. You can get people to take out loans, invest in stuff and do all kind of things if they don't understand economics. (And no I don't have a tinfoil hat!)

But you started to get educated, this is the main difference between you and your teacher, she got uncomfortable by the ugly truth so she prefers to ignore it, not only that, she tried to discourage you from discussing economy. Concerning education I think it is not casual that public education quality descended abysmally in the last 30 year, poor and uneducated people are easy to manipulate and to lie to, that is a fact. What concerns me more is that educated people choose to ignore economic and financial education, your Spanish teacher probably is a middle class woman who has a college degree, and yet she decides to ignore economy because in her opinion the study of it is not worth of her time or attention, she is indoctrinated into rejecting any kind of formation about economy.

A few days ago I was discussing the banned books during our history, when my mom was 17 yo she had a history teacher who was a communist, for her history class the students had to buy a list books and some of them were banned, my mom was unaware of this and she just went to several bookstores looking for these books on the list. Needless to say that she couldn't find any of them, she commented to her boyfriend how impossible it was to get her history books, he looked over the list and was shocked to see that most of the books were banned ones. He talked with a friend of a friend and gave my mom the address of a rundown little bookstore in the middle of nowhere. There she went with the list and said who had send her, the owner gave her a brown paper package and instructed her to go quickly. She was 17 and very unaware of the consequences of buying banned book, she got home and opened the package only to find out that none of the books were the ones she needed, when she started to looked at them in detail and browse the books, she realized that someone had rip off the covers and stick covers from other books so they wouldn't be easily recognized as banned books. At that moment she realized how dangerous the possession of those books was, and she was truly astonished.

Sadly nowadays you don't need to ban books, people won't read certain things out of choice, the books are banned in their brains, unfortunately you can snuggle banned books but you can't snuggle knowledge into people who refuse it.

 

[kemer84]

You do know its around 30% now?
I don't think you can predict these things for certain. All you can say is 30% inflation is dangerous.
Perhaps the economy will bump along the bottom for a year or two or perhaps a devaluation will cause hyper inflation. who knows.

Things aren't fine but we aren't going to have a crisis in the next month.

30% Inflation? Where? Not even Clarin says that the last year inflation was 30%.

We will not have a devaluation, the only one's who want it are the bussiness men. And if it occurs, it will be the end of this Govt. and they now it very well.

 

[kemer84]

This: http://en.mercopress...rriers-on-trade

And this: http://www.businessi...om-flood-2013-1

It might not be business as usual after all. At any time, other Mercosur countries can just say "Basta!" (plus whatever one would say in Brazil) and if the soy suffers from late planting, there won't be so many greenbacks coming in from China. I still don't understand why the other countries has put up with the K Double Standard of doing business.

LOL!!! Mercopress? Do you take your information from Mercopress? Serously?

That South Atlantic ''news agency'' is the most pathetic piece of work I found on the net.

The only purpose of them is to bash and denigrate Argentina.

No country in the Mercosur will ever say enough to Argentina, if you think that a simple commercial dispute (you have it in both sides) is gonna ruin it, then you are wrong. They need us and our products as much as we need them.

Saludos

 

[kemer84]

[font=Arial"]I agree with you, the middle class is disappearing, the most worrying thing is that when you only have really rich people and sickly poor people all the values suddenly disappear and you stop living to start surviving. We are slowly turning into a jungle, you can already see aggression, violence and insecurity in the streets. I have never seen so many homeless people on the streets before. During the 90ths you used to know the homeless person in your neighborhood, all the neighbors knew her/his life story and most of them hand down their used clothes to him/her. The extremes are never healthy, it is unlucky that this government can't realize that a country is sustained not by the upper class or the lower class, but by the taxes and consumption power of the middle class, by killing the middle class you are only ruining a country. Unfortunately this mayhem is only a distraction finely executed by CFK and her associates to produce such a crisis that she will have no other choice but to renounce as a president and flee the country with billions of dollars shamelessly embezzled during her and her husband's periods in the presidency. Personally I consider that CFK thought that she would be expelled by a military putsch, unfortunately once she is gone a new government will have to take over and will have to derogate all of her delusional government assistance programs, that won’t happen quietly and riots are bound to happen.[/font]

Middle class disapearing? Sorry to burst your bubble:

http://www.bancomundial.org/es/news/2012/11/13/argentina-middle-class-grows-50-percent

 

[PhilinBSAS]

OK people here goes (sits back and waiting for the outcry)

In the interests of raising the general standard of basic Economics (and what is not economics but just personal finance there is a big difference) and in this thread over discussion over Argentina and Brazil - for those who havnt done this - here are a couple of explanations of the theory of comparative advantage which has been hugely influential since it was first propounded in the mid 19th cent as a core part of the theory of international trade and international politics.

You dont have to agree with it - and there are alternative theories - but it is part of basic economics people for those who arnt already aware but want to know - see Samuelson quote in ref. 2

(and this is not a discussion about whether the Economist is right in describing Samuelson as a "great economist" either)

Im not being condescending but it may help to have some understanding of why for example theories and concepts of "free trade" globally or "regional trade blocs" such as Mercosur have been propounded.

Of course it was also a rationale for firstly the UK and then USA and other mainly European economies who had industrialised early and could get to expand the markets for the consumption of firstly their manufactured products and later to a range of tertiary services. The terms of trade have favoured industrial and then service products for nearly 200 years.

That is until the end of the 20th cent that is when there was a reverse of the situation and the terms of trade has switched to favouring primary producers. As to whether this is a blip or not then opinions differ - as they do on all of this!

See http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/trade/comparative_advantage.htm

Also http://www.economist.com/economics-a-to-z/c#node-21529435