Argentina 2013 Economy

[camberiu]

But one day I suddenly realized that he specifically didn't pursue those types of speaking tools because of his rare value system. He doesn't aspire to wield power over people. Politicians who want to do that spend their hours practicing scripted speeches in front of a mirror, with their hair combed perfectly, thinking of how they can manipulate and inspire and trick everyone into following their hidden agenda. I think that didn't occur to Ron Paul. He thought he could just say sensible things in a logical way, uphold the constitution with transparency, and the people could lead themselves from the grass roots.

You nailed it. He couldn't/wouldn't do the theater of power. That is why he would never be elected. Only those who don't want power are the ones who deserve to wield it.

 

[Matiasba]

If you don't agree with it why are you trying to defend it? They wanted to stop the growth to control inflation? :blink:



I saw people being interviewed on 6-7-8 who said they were there because of the economy.

http://en.mercopress...ty-or-indigence



Looks like poverty is increasing.... but wait INDEC to the rescue!

Please quote me when I defended that dollar cepo or imports restrictions. I had always said I didnt agree with that measure. Always.

About the growth, as I said this country cannot grow without inflation. It happened since a long time ago. And it will still happen.
More growth, more inflation. It is a demand inflation, provocated by the strong internal demand this country is having. It also has to do the emission and a lot of other issues, but when at the beggining of 2012 they started cutting the subsidios, import restrictions, the dollar cepo...They made it. The growth fell to 2%. If we had continued at 8% the inflation could have been a lot bigger than what it is now.

About the rest, look, if you want to believe that poverty and indigence are growing, just do it. I suggest to look of the UN numbers (world bank, even IMF, whos definitely not K, and -as I asked something and noone never answered- the HDI index that grew unstoppably during this government) that is the most objective way to know of how a country is doing in terms of human development.

As for the INDEC, I m a sociologist, and I know a lot of people (proffesors, student partners) that work there. Its not like EVERY data is corrupted. INDEC till the Ks was a model in Latin America and was the more reliable Institute. It had his prestige. They are not politicians, they are all technician that measures things with a scientific method. There are a lot of statistics they manage every year, not only inflation. Migration, sanity, education, EPH, Census, a lot. The Ks are not there in every move. They just want to controll the inflation numbers, by force, which, again, and please pay attention of what Im saying, I do not agree with.

There are lots of things I dont like about the Ks, but the main economic policies are not one of them.

 

[Conorworld]

it is true that Argentina reduced its poverty rate exceptionally well in the past 10 years but how much of that was attributable to the Kirchners? First of all Argentina suffered an economic calamity from trying to keep itself a high-cost, dollar-pegged economy. It failed and in the tailspin a sizable minority if not majority were flung down in to poverty. In essence, the only way was up once Argentina regained competitiveness post-2003, which it did impressively. However it has squandered that since. 2003-4 was the beginning of the commodity boom which aided many countries that export them. These two instances of post-collapse recovery plus commodity boom gave the resources of the Kirchners to build their Model T Kirchner economic machine.

It worked well but was built on unsustainable parts and for about 3 years now, the pieces are slowly falling off the the T Kirchner is spluttering along while Cristina et al quickly slap band-aids on to it with things like dollar clamps and a lick of new paint like doctoring inflation figures. It has robbed parts from others with raiding pension funds and oil companies.

In relation to the dollar clamp. If you had full confidence in your economic policies you would never need a dollar clamp. Your policies would be working and that would imbue confidence in people. It has not and again, patching up the cracks is not helping.

Argentina survived in 2008-9 because the sharp slowdown in the world economy was immediately halted by a world-wide stimulus programme. It had one year of low single-digit growth and shot back up. 2012's slowdown if it was on its own would mean Cristina and her gang could survive a bit longer. However indications that 2013 will see growth of low single-digits means that the economy and the general population will suffer pretty badly. If the economy is growing fast, revenues grow and Cristina can increase wages to the tune of unofficial inflation. 2 or more years of slow growth mean your revenue projections are lower. That could be fine in a country with low inflation but Argentina is halfway to hyperinflation. She will not be able to cover over the pain of higher inflation if the growth of the economy is too slow to pay for it.

Therefore 2013 will be a decisive year. I don't think it will see the end of Cristina but she will be a more humbled individual than she was previously. What will be the story will be how she fashions things out of a very bad situation

 

[toongeorges]

Only those who don't want power are the ones who deserve to wield it.

Thus all we need is an objective judge who decides who deserves to be in power?

Personally, I believe more in survival of the fittest than in moral truths.

 

[PhilinBSAS]

Just read an article by the economist at Chinese Embassy in BsAs.

(CFK just ordered about 400 trains from China to replace the old
wooden train from Belgium about 100 years ago, about 406 coaches
will be replaced with modern trains from China with TV and current commuinicaion
devices)

Anyway, here is the economy summary:

Argentina's (2013) economy's growth will drop to 2.2% from 8.9% (2012), and the inflation will be
around 26% (25% last year). Argentina is the ONLY South America country with no growth and
high inflation. High inflation is usually combined with high growth. So CFK is really f** the country.

3 factors cause hight inflation:

1)debt, this year Argentina has to pay 7 billion in debt. Compared to the European countries,
the debt ratio is not high, at 40%. But the AR credit rating is way way lower than the European
countries for what Ar did in the past.

2)over printing currency, banking law was changed so the central bank can subsidize the programs
(by printing)

3)too many government programs and pension programs, they have to print more pesos, to
keep things going. CFKs got stimulas programs.

It is going to be a bad year for Ar with 2.2% groith and 13% drop in soy bean production. Sh*t
is going to happen soon. ( this is not in the report)

The other high inflation country is Venezuela, which already controled its inflation under 13%.
All other Latin America countries keep their inflation under 10%.

The real growth of last year is about 1% if you factor everything.

On the real estate front, the # of transaction (notary) has been shrinking for 12 month continuously.
Mainly because of the media (US$) is being controlled, and foreign buyers are trying to dump their
flats and could not find a local buyer wtih sufficient US$.

Argentian lost 18 billion US$ in 9 month. With what happening, the outflow is faster.


I'm still looking for this Economist Article you have referenced

I can only find this .... From the EIU (not the Economist there is a difference as the EIU when last I checked with them hey still base there figures on INDEC figures despite what the Economist Newspaper has to say on the matter)

Ive copied it below with full acknowledgement. It is an interesting summary but not with the figures you have noted

No offence but could you provide the URL of what you have posted - as I'd like to see without the added comments and Im not clear which are what Thanks



January 10th 2013 Printer version

Risk Briefing
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The Argentinean president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, is facing one of the most
difficult years of her presidency. Just over a year after she won re-election with a
resounding 54% of the vote, she is facing a broad range of challenges which threaten to
undermine her government and stymie her chances of pushing through a constitutional
reform that would allow her to run for a third consecutive term in 2015.

Problems abroad
One of these problems is arguably not of Ms Fernández’s making, as it dates back to
Argentina’s catastrophic sovereign debt default in 2001, which left the country isolated
from the international capital markets for several years. In 2005 the Argentine

government of then president Néstor Kirchner (Ms Fernández’s husband and predecessor,
who died in 2010) launched a debt swap that attempted to encourage holders of the defaulted debt to swap their worthless debt for new Argentinean bonds. This was in exchange for a write down in the value of the debt, in which debt-holders lost approximately 70-75% of the value of their bonds. Following a further debt swap in 2010, nearly 92% of debt-holders had entering the restructuring process.

However, the remaining debt-holders have continued to petition Argentina through the law courts for full payment of the amount owed on the defaulted debt. Although this legal process has dragged on for years, several rulings in late 2012 proved highly encouraging for outstanding debt-holders, while potentially putting Argentina in a difficult financial position. In October 2010 an Argentinean military vessel was held in Ghana, after US- based investment fund NML Capital applied to Ghana’s courts to hold the ship as collateral for approximately US$1.6bn owed to the debt-holders.
The vessel was released in December, but in the meantime another challenge had emerged: in October a New York court ruled that Argentina had to apply equal treatment to all its debt-holders, meaning that it cannot pay its existing debt-holders without paying the debt hold-outs as well. This raises the prospect that Argentina could choose, or be forced into, a further default on its debt if it is unable or unwilling to pay the debt hold- outs. A second default in ten years would be a further blow to Argentina’s international credit reputation, while preventing the country from raising money on the capital markets. Argentina has not needed to do so in recent years owing to strong economic growth, but slowing growth and rising social unrest could mean that this is a bad time for the government to lose any of its financing options.

Argentina will be presenting its case on February 27th, when the oral hearing begins in its challenge to the October New York ruling. Although Argentina has offered to reopen the debt swap on the same terms as 2010, debt hold-outs have no incentive to take the reduced bond offer now that the legal process seems to be going their way. As such, Argentina faces the prospect of either a damaging debt default or a backdown on the part of the government—with the latter an option that Ms Fernández has never been willing to consider.

Problems at home
At the same time Ms, Fernández is embroiled in a bitter domestic court dispute, as media group Clarín challenges implementation of the government’s controversial 2009 media communications law. Clarín argues that the legislation, which requires companies over a certain size to divest some of their media holdings, is designed specifically to target the group. It is thus currently appealing the decision, but the government argues that it is free to begin the forced divestment of Clarín’s holdings. Perhaps most worryingly, a court ruling suspending the divestment until a ruling on the constitutionality of the 2009 law had been reached was condemned by Ms Fernández. Instead, she accused the judiciary of bias and threatened to "overhaul" it.

The president’s relations with the judiciary have been warm for much of her term. However, should the confrontation between the government and the judiciary continue to escalate, this could lead to a scenario in which the president tries to restructure the courts, leading to accusations of authoritarianism and a bitter struggle that could paralyse the judicial system for much of 2013. This in itself is bad timing for Ms Fernández, who is expected to launch a constitutional reform proposal this year allowing her to run for a third consecutive term. With much of the judiciary ranged against her, she could find this an unexpectedly difficult battle.

http://viewswire.eiu...le_id=830023067&... 22/01/2013

----------------------- Page 2-----------------------
ViewsWire Page 2 of 2

This is especially the case given that Ms Fernández’s popularity has slumped sharply since
her re-election in 2011, running at 39%. In particular, her popularity among the poor is
fading, demonstrated by mass social protests in Buenos Aires in late 2012 against high
inflation and the commensurate erosion of purchasing power (the government’s
understated official inflation statistics have not been credible for some time, and, as a
punishment, the IMF may well remove Argentina’s voting rights at the Fund and,
ultimately, Argentina is at risk of becoming the first country ever to be expelled from the
IMF—an outcome that would only further cement the already-dismal perceptions of
Argentina's creditworthiness). An outbreak of looting across several major cities in
December added fuel to middle class complaints about rising crime, while several
influential trade unions have split from Ms Fernández following years of loyalty.

Congressional elections are due in October, and their outcome will dictate the shape of
her presidency for the final two years of her term. As a result, much of 2013 will be
dedicated to quelling opposition and bolstering support, through the twin Peronist tactics
of intimidation and financial incentives. In addition, Ms Fernández has already reignited
the Falklands/Malvinas issue in an attempt to deflect domestic discontent into nationalist
sentiment, by publishing an open letter in UK newspapers in early January called for the
"return" of the Falkland Islands.

With all these challenges, 2013 looks set to be a bumpy year for Ms Fernández. She has
overcome other difficulties – such as the major agricultural protests of 2008 – but not so
many at once. For this reason, she is likely to experience a further slide in popularity,
leading to erratic policy decisions as she struggles to regain popular support in time for
the October legislative polls.

Source: Risk Briefing

© 2013 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved.
About us | About Risk Briefing | Contact us | Privacy statement | Terms of access | Help

http://viewswire.eiu...le_id=830023067&... 22/01/2013

 

[PhilinBSAS]

Therefore 2013 will be a decisive year. I don't think it will see the end of Cristina but she will be a more humbled individual than she was previously. What will be the story will be how she fashions things out of a very bad situation

If she fails to get through then IMHO there is a strong possibility she will end up in court unless she is quick on her feet like Menem (which she isnt)

My gf is convinced that so far it is only females who have been sent to prison for economic crimes in Argentina

Of course the despicable Isabelita third wife of Peron is still in exile in Spain who are refusing to hand her over to Argentina - conveniently

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabel_Mart%C3%ADnez_de_Per%C3%B3n

Cristina will not be protected in Spain one assumes nor anywhere else in Europe. Where else? Venezuela post Chavez? Or maybe a good reason for getting to know Vietnam??

BTW has anyone heard anything recently from our special correspondent in Hanoi at this one time when there is actually a real Vietnam - Argentina connection?

 

[dennisr]

!!!

 

[ArgentinianGirl]

[font="Arial""]My only concern is that you can't expect to plan your life here, you can't save money (it is like burning it, after a couple of months the inflation will eat most of your savings), you can't buy a house, you can't invest, I feel trapped in a horrible hamster's wheel. A lot of people are returning to live at their parents’ house because they can’t have a decent life living by themselves. They have full times jobs (good jobs, I am taking about professionals here) and if they want to live alone they will barely get by. For me this situation is terrible, I live stressed out about the money and I honestly can’t remember one moment in my whole life where I haven’t been worried about money. I am 25 yo by the way and I live by myself, the truth is that if I had the choice I wouldn’t be living by myself, doing this is financially killing me. I hate the government programs, I think that is a way to make poor people lazy and worthless, the horrible truth is that our president use this programs as a way to secure votes for her and her political party in the elections, meanwhile our retire citizens are living on scraps because the money that it is supposed to go to their retirement paychecks is being used for this programs. This whole situation just make me sick, sometimes I feel ashamed of what had become of my country.[/font]

 

[PhilipDT]

[font=Arial"]My only concern is that you can't expect to plan your life here, you can't save money (it is like burning it, after a couple of months the inflation will eat most of your savings), you can't buy a house, you can't invest, I feel trapped in a horrible hamster's wheel. A lot of people are returning to live at their parents’ house because they can’t have a decent life living by themselves. They have full times jobs (good jobs, I am taking about professionals here) and if they want to live alone they will barely get by. For me this situation is terrible, I live stressed out about the money and I honestly can’t remember one moment in my whole life where I haven’t been worried about money. I am 25 yo by the way and I live by myself, the truth is that if I had the choice I wouldn’t be living by myself, doing this is financially killing me. I hate the government programs, I think that is a way to make poor people lazy and worthless, the horrible truth is that our president use this programs as a way to secure votes for her and her political party in the elections, meanwhile our retire citizens are living on scraps because the money that it is supposed to go to their retirement paychecks is being used for this programs. This whole situation just make me sick, sometimes I feel ashamed of what had become of my country.[/font]

You should become a truck driver, that way you can get 30% annual wage increases evaluated 2x a year.

 

[scotttswan]

[font=Arial"]My only concern is that you can't expect to plan your life here, you can't save money (it is like burning it, after a couple of months the inflation will eat most of your savings), you can't buy a house, you can't invest, I feel trapped in a horrible hamster's wheel. A lot of people are returning to live at their parents’ house because they can’t have a decent life living by themselves. They have full times jobs (good jobs, I am taking about professionals here) and if they want to live alone they will barely get by. For me this situation is terrible, I live stressed out about the money and I honestly can’t remember one moment in my whole life where I haven’t been worried about money. I am 25 yo by the way and I live by myself, the truth is that if I had the choice I wouldn’t be living by myself, doing this is financially killing me. I hate the government programs, I think that is a way to make poor people lazy and worthless, the horrible truth is that our president use this programs as a way to secure votes for her and her political party in the elections, meanwhile our retire citizens are living on scraps because the money that it is supposed to go to their retirement paychecks is being used for this programs. This whole situation just make me sick, sometimes I feel ashamed of what had become of my country.[/font]

You are not alone, there are expats who are in the same boat struggling along, who don't have savings abroad, external work earning in dollars or anything else like that.

You should try and get german to explain how everything is great though.