BA Real Estate market to take a dive before the end of the year.

Alpinista

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I found this thread interesting when the Covid crisis broke out. Now, we know the 2020 numbers.

Real estate in 2020 lost about 6-7% compared to the year before:
Not surprisingly, objects with open space fared well better than others

Interesting is also the number of transactions in 2020. With 18'000 transactions it was well below 2019 (which was a bad year itself with 33'000). Average transactions were historically in the 50'000 - 60'000 region. Also interesting that only about 5% of the transactions were (partially) financed with real estate loans.

My reading into this: I am surprised that fall in prices was not higher. However, I believe that the market will take a further hit this year, which probably even is greater than last year. I also see a lot of vacant objects which are already for many years on the market. At one point the real estate holders will come to the conclusion that there price expectations are unrealistic and lower the asking prices.
 

FallenAngel

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Are capital gains taxes on real estate based on the peso? In other words, you buy an apartment worth $100k and sell it for $100k, but the peso value doubled, so you owe capital gains tax on the peso value increase?

If so, it makes real estate very unattractive.
 

Ries

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I think prices arent coming down in masse, but there are deals. A friend just bought a 25 square meter apartment in a very decent block in Palermo for $30k USD. Of course, it needs reaming, but he is an architect, and in a few years, he will come out just fine with it. If you can handle remodels and improvements, and have cash, there are good deals out there.

But its kind of amazing how many people havent dropped prices much.
 

QuilmesSlo

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Prices have held up more than I would have imagined. I don't think they'll drop too much more, either. However, if sellers do capitulate, there will be few foreign buyers interested in dealing with BA real estate and its myriad complexities. Which means in the unlikely capitulation scenario, things will get very bad indeed.
 

Pierre Smith

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That's just it - even if the prices dropped, as with everything else in this maddening country, the immobilizing spider's web of regulations both formal and informal just cap demand, you know, the number of potential investors.

I've been getting into spirited debates with my brother and a few old college friends over the past months along the following lines: I'm much, and I mean much, more anti-regulation and anti-intervention than I've ever been, and I'm a construction attorney with an economics background, basically Mr. Pro-Growth. However, starting in 2018 and ending with a lot of bitterness just as the pandemic hit, I've been trying to get a small company organized to export from Argentina/import to the US, mostly for a couple specialty bars/liquor shops. The difficulty/misery of this enterprise has turned me from an 'ah, it's their country, it's not better or worse, just different' type . . . into a fairly radical anti-Kirschnerist, and it has infected my opinions about a whole bunch of other things, across the board, including here in America.

Someone told me that they thought my failed Argentine gambit has driven me a bit crazy, and my response was that it had driven me crazy, full stop. No half measures in this goddamned country.

Anyway, on real estate, I just don't see anyone normal buying into the market with all the weird moves you have to make. It's like buying in Russia or something. Just too weird and difficult and pricey and without any real benefit unless you intend to live there full time.
 

DomoDomo

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For a place in Recoleta we recently got a 15 percent discount off the newly revised list price. It was a 35% discount from the original listing price (2019). We feel like we know the area pretty well and thought it represented good value for the location,
 

QuilmesSlo

Registered
For a place in Recoleta we recently got a 15 percent discount off the newly revised list price. It was a 35% discount from the original listing price (2019). We feel like we know the area pretty well and thought it represented good value for the location,
Sounds like a great deal congratulations.
 
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