Campaign Watch

[Matiasba]

Im not saying the Ks are the only option, they are the only option with a probability to win. Carrio, Macri or Massa will stop the policies I like, the growth, the inclusion, the social programs, etc. I ll vote for Lozano, like I did, I dont like that much the Ks, I simply prefer them than the ones mentioned above.
About the US embassy, they dont control, they just give them (huge) support, like they do with Capriles, for instance. Media, financial support, etc, etc, etc.

Thde embassy bet on the best candidate, and if he doesnt win, go after the other.

 

[EdRooney]

Slovoj Zizek tells of his time living under the "communist" Tito dictatorship in Yugoslavia. He mentions that they actually used to have elections. There would be two candidates, but both of them really represented the same system and had no intent of changing anything (and everyone knew this). If what you are saying is true, and we have to support the rightist K's with their Monsanto contracts, their Chevron fracking deals and their loans from the World Bank, then there really is little difference between Argentina and Yugoslavia.

The same is true in most countries, such as the US, where the Democrats and Republicans are slightly different variations of a single party representing big business. The democrats keep people voting for them by saying "it's either us or the Republicans!" and this rhetoric prevents any real change from happening in the country. Things have not reached this point yet in Argentina, but La Cámpora and the rightist militants both seem dedicated to making sure it does.

I do not deny that the K government is better than having the PRO or Binner or what not in power. But to say as you did that it is either K or the right only renders voting useless as a tool for expressing popular opinion.

 

[ElQueso]

...but the critics about how the economy is doing, which I think all in all its doing fine, every critique, says pretty much the same, talks about devaluation, inflation, etc, and we know the meaning of that measures (exclussion, unemployment, poverty, etc).

I truly mean no offense, I mean no animosity and I'm not trying to belittle you, but I have to wonder why you think the economy is doing so good?

I know more people who live on the lower side of things economically in Buenos Aires than I do in higher. (Including, unfortunately, people who live in two different villas, but I don't count their opinions of the economy when forming my opinions. Most who live in the villa are foreigners, many of whom actually prefer to live where they are for various reasons that have nothing to do with industry but rather a lack of desire or a fear to integrate in any way into Argentine society beyond earning money outside the villa when they want to, or robbing people [inside or outside], etc. Knowing people who live there, and knowing something about a lot of others who live there and why, I'm not so sympathetic to villeros). However, I also have a number of acquaintances of middle class and higher.

I know of only three people who think the economy is doing fine. Two of them are parents of a young lady at the school where my sisters-in-law attend, a middle-class private Catholic school. I don't know them very well (no one does). They don't socialize at all, and their daughter is a not-so-good girl who does things to attract the attention of others. They are both employed in the government (the father is a lawyer but I don't know who he works for, and I only know the mother works for the government).

The third is a lawyer who does work with the government, but is self-employed.

Most people I know have varying thoughts on how bad things are, sure. But for people who make around $5000-$6000 pesos a month, it's not so much due to inflation. It doesn't buy nearly as much as when they were making around $3000 a month Nothing in pesos is worth as much, due to inflation. I don't know anyone who isn't worried about how much they are now spending on everything in relation to how much their salaries have gone up. I know people that are freaking out because of the pressure of the worry about this. $40 pesos a kilo for tomatoes, and flour limits on purchases, for god's sake (and not only inflation behind those, as many of the problems that people are having).

But then again, I don't socialize with the few lawyers I know (one of which is anti-K and thinks things are bad, another of which is pro-K and thinks things are a bit tough, but all will become great), I don't know any bus drivers or train conductors. I know a couple of waiters in places like Excedra (I live nearby and I like their licuados with kiwi and orange juice ). We don't sit and have conversations on what they think about things, but a licuado that used to cost $12 pesos before they closed a few years ago is now about $40 pesos. I don't ask my doctors when we visit what their thoughts are, but I know my insurance rates are skyrocketing.

I don't know how bad things will get before things get better, I'm not a prognosticator. But I do wonder how long you will continue to think that things are doing fine?

 

[ARbound]

Here's my worries and concerns. Like others, I'm in love with social programs, spending on people, the environment, and direct government intervention in the economy, everything from the litte, say quantitative easing to full on nationalization, however, like many Expats, and the right wing (never thought you'd see Socialists and Conservatives united on something, did you? Thanks be to Cristina) I really, really, really don't like the inflation and devaluation of our currency. I typed my salary in google to calculate XXXX ARS a month to USD, and last week before this Friday I got XX49, today I get XX29. That's a $20.00 a month cut in like 4 days, and that's what scares me, and I realize that my priorities, are different than others. I pay rent, food, phone/interent, and expenses and such, but I like to use whatever I have left over to travel, mainly abroad, even though there's lots left for me to see here.

Like I said in the voting thread, Argentina is mostly 50 Shades of Perón, which leaves you, pardon my Français, fucked for party or parties that are 1) Electable and 2) actually going to do things to get inflation under control. Yes, Macri would be smart to say "INDEC is full of shit, we're doing our own inflation scales" but then on the same hand he does stupid stuff like piss money away on parks or bike lanes when public hospitals are dilapidated (I want both, trust me, but I believe in prioritizing). Now I believe the Federal Government has to get involved in cities too, but how can you even try to argue that you're trying to balance the books and be fiscally responsible when you do something like this:

ARGENTINA BUYS 16 F-1 MIRAGES FROM SPAIN FOR $ 230,401,000 USD​

You want SCOTUS to throwout a "Vulture Fund"'s claims that you owe them money because it will cripple the economy, but you're able to spend $230 Million Dollars on old planes from Spain? Who is going to attack us? Chile? Uruguay? Paraguay? Bolivia? Brasil? The Falkland Islands? Pingüinos?
I asked my friends and none of them understood or saw the problem with this.

I swear, it's like the Simpsons episode with Frank Grimes asking if the whole plant has a disease where it can't see how stupid Homer is, except it's Argentina as the plant, and Perónistas are Homer.

I'm all for government spending, I'm a good ol' left wing socialist, but you need to pay for it, like Northern European countries do. Raise taxes, cut spending on silly things, and stop lying about inflation.

If ANY party could do that I'd be so happy...

 

[Matiasba]

Slovoj Zizek tells of his time living under the "communist" Tito dictatorship in Yugoslavia. He mentions that they actually used to have elections. There would be two candidates, but both of them really represented the same system and had no intent of changing anything (and everyone knew this). If what you are saying is true, and we have to support the rightist K's with their Monsanto contracts, their Chevron fracking deals and their loans from the World Bank, then there really is little difference between Argentina and Yugoslavia.

The same is true in most countries, such as the US, where the Democrats and Republicans are slightly different variations of a single party representing big business. The democrats keep people voting for them by saying "it's either us or the Republicans!" and this rhetoric prevents any real change from happening in the country. Things have not reached this point yet in Argentina, but La Cámpora and the rightist militants both seem dedicated to making sure it does.

I do not deny that the K government is better than having the PRO or Binner or what not in power. But to say as you did that it is either K or the right only renders voting useless as a tool for expressing popular opinion.

believe me, it is the K or the right. There is no left or centre left party which can compete with the right (Carrio, Massa, Macri). I wont vote for the Ks, I always vote for minorities left parties which are much more consistant than the Ks, but the scenario is pretty much a ballottage (that we ll have). And I dont know if its even necesary to stop this cycle. i mean no country can growth instoppably so long, we have to have some limits. And the model its reaching its limit. But the ones who come will take otrthodox measures, like devaluation, with its huge cost, social cost, unemployment, recession, etc. The same we had in 2000 and the same is happening too Spain. There are no greys between the two models, you go in one direction or other, you bet for the internal market, protect it, stimulate it, or you bet for the agro exports, you bet for the industry, quality jobs for Argentinians, or you bet for dismantle it, open trade for big fishes from China and US and kill it, you bet for taking debt or you deny and pay and have a very low percentage of GDP as debt, you bet for regional integration, Unasur or you have the US embassy organizing wars like Venezuela Colombia, Ecuador Colombia, or even intensifying Argentinas conflict with Uruguay.

 

[Matiasba]

I truly mean no offense, I mean no animosity and I'm not trying to belittle you, but I have to wonder why you think the economy is doing so good?

I know more people who live on the lower side of things economically in Buenos Aires than I do in higher. (Including, unfortunately, people who live in two different villas, but I don't count their opinions of the economy when forming my opinions. Most who live in the villa are foreigners, many of whom actually prefer to live where they are for various reasons that have nothing to do with industry but rather a lack of desire or a fear to integrate in any way into Argentine society beyond earning money outside the villa when they want to, or robbing people [inside or outside], etc. Knowing people who live there, and knowing something about a lot of others who live there and why, I'm not so sympathetic to villeros). However, I also have a number of acquaintances of middle class and higher.

I know of only three people who think the economy is doing fine. Two of them are parents of a young lady at the school where my sisters-in-law attend, a middle-class private Catholic school. I don't know them very well (no one does). They don't socialize at all, and their daughter is a not-so-good girl who does things to attract the attention of others. They are both employed in the government (the father is a lawyer but I don't know who he works for, and I only know the mother works for the government).

The third is a lawyer who does work with the government, but is self-employed.

Most people I know have varying thoughts on how bad things are, sure. But for people who make around $5000-$6000 pesos a month, it's not so much due to inflation. It doesn't buy nearly as much as when they were making around $3000 a month Nothing in pesos is worth as much, due to inflation. I don't know anyone who isn't worried about how much they are now spending on everything in relation to how much their salaries have gone up. I know people that are freaking out because of the pressure of the worry about this. $40 pesos a kilo for tomatoes, and flour limits on purchases, for god's sake (and not only inflation behind those, as many of the problems that people are having).

But then again, I don't socialize with the few lawyers I know (one of which is anti-K and thinks things are bad, another of which is pro-K and thinks things are a bit tough, but all will become great), I don't know any bus drivers or train conductors. I know a couple of waiters in places like Excedra (I live nearby and I like their licuados with kiwi and orange juice ). We don't sit and have conversations on what they think about things, but a licuado that used to cost $12 pesos before they closed a few years ago is now about $40 pesos. I don't ask my doctors when we visit what their thoughts are, but I know my insurance rates are skyrocketing.

I don't know how bad things will get before things get better, I'm not a prognosticator. But I do wonder how long you will continue to think that things are doing fine?

Look, my opinion on economy is that we are at the end of a virtuous cycle. We are in the limit. The time this country grew more was from 1965 to 1975 (not by chance ended with Videla). We never grew unstoppably more than 10 years. So, a big change will happen surely. It cant sustain like this much more.
This country cannot grow without inflation. The inflation is a demand inflation, it is produced by all this new people, excluded from economy in 2002, that were included, not formaly, but they started to participate in consumption, with social plans, jobs (we had 25% unemployment before) or pensions (+2 million of new jubilados). That huge quantity of money is, of course, an investment, that people who could not eat, now they have money to spend. Theres the cause of inflation: people with money.
There are subsidios, cheap transport, lots of other measures like that that stimulates to expand the internal market.

We produce almost 1 million cars per year, which only 13 countries in the world do. If you live here for more than 8 years you will notice that that million cars per year are in the street, you can look and check that there are indeed 10 million brand new cars that have been bought by argentines. 10 million of new cars, 10 million of families that have a brand new car... remember we had 53% under the poverty line in 2002!! and its not like the other 47% were rich!! so picture if lots of people have been improved in their situation.

I recognise that lately this model is showing problems, but thats because the big enterprizes are in war with the government. For example: La Serenisima and Sancor have the 80% of the milk market. Their inflation was the last year 42%!!!! They are concentrating more and more buying tambos, pymes, their competidors. And that with lot of other products. The people with money, with power, its making Cristinas government impossible, like its happening with Venezuela. And its very difficult if you dont tax the big enterprizes to make the poor succed. The problem of Argentina is and always have been the rich, they never have chosen to invest here, they take the money to Switzerland and invest in a lot of other options, but never here. Not even with Menem, when they had everything in their favour.

 

[ElQueso]

The country can't grow without inflation because Argentina exists in the modern world, tries to live a decent level of life (which it seems to me that every year Argentinos accept less and less), and the isolationist policies that K has put in only exacerbates the problem.

The biggest problem I see with many central-planning governments (not all, and quite aside from the corruption here) is that markets are so complex, and people really think they can control them, and then come up with convoluted reasons to explain why they can't properly get where they said they could, or why things turned around completely and they crashed. Particularly in poorer/developing countries, the populace is fairly ignorant of anything beyond what the government tells them and the governments often lie through their teeths to "show" that their voodoo is working properly, just hang in there.

If a country could completely fabricate/produce everything it needed, it wouldn't make a huge difference about inflation because the currency, to outsiders, wouldn't matter if no one is importing or exporting goods. The problem is that internationally currency is more or less evaluated (among other things) on how much a country produces, what backs up its currency, etc. Printing money ALWAYS causes inflation and the government here is printing money like crazy to cover what it can of its social programs and subsidies, while spending its dollar reserves (which, right or wrong, have a much more solid value than the peso internationally) to try to keep the difference between dollar and peso as small as they can for the trickle of imports and owed money, etc., which does nothing but cause more inflation because that number the government holds to is not real and no one internationally believes it.

Another thing about printing money - you know who benefits from it? The government who prints it, and the people who first get it into their hands before a devaluation for what's printed hits the economy (starting businesses, paying bills [subsidies], buying property [loans], etc.). From there, everyone who works and has savings (including poor people, who get hit the worst!) just loses more and more of their money (in buying power). It is a way for governments to steal from the people and I despise it, but that's another topic...

Argentina could cut itself off commercially from the rest of the world, but the standard of living here would fall precipitously (think Cuba). It would be a LONG time before Argentina, by itself, could make itself a country with a rich standard of living without interacting with the outside world. anything else is a denial of the facts of the real world..

Serenisima and Sancor do indeed have a lot of the dairy market. I'm not sure of the historical reasons for this, but I know one thing - monopolies can't exist without the help of the government. That can come in many forms. Some of these seem to me to be price controls and other governmental interference. It helps to wipe out competition - who wants to open up business in an environment where things are so uncertain? Those who existed and do reasonably good business tend to take a greater share of the market while wiping out competition, then quality starts falling as they find ways to maintain their business and so on...

The thing about capitalism, right or wrong, is that it works (obviously to varying degrees, and how well often depends on how much the government stays out of the market and how well laws are enforced) because of human nature - people need reasons to take risks. The reason is usually the possibility of earning wealth. Who is going to risk their necks to try to make a big buck and innovate and provide good products when it's so difficult to do, and if you do real good, you might find all your wealth wiped out in one swell foop by the government! Often, those who will take risks in climates that exist here are people the government can work with (think coima and patronage, etc, etc, etc) which is usually very inefficient and doesn't present a good means of producing efficiently and with quality.

I don't agree with central planning personally, but it can be made to work, with varying success. Just not like the Kirchners have tried to do! Too much complete isolationism and real voodoo economics, very little for the future based in reality and mostly works to keep things propped up while they get out from under the mess they've created with riches held in other countries, or property in this country - and very little fear of prosecution after they leave.

 

[nikad]

Dear expats, do not do this to yourselves: you cannot vote on this election, the selection is not great but there is not much left, if you have a plan B, just abstract yourselves from this reality. It is just not good. Sorry non optimistic porteña me. It is nice to know that you care though.

 

[EdRooney]

Queso,

I agree with alot of your general concepts and I dislike the Kirchners as much as anyone. That said, the basic premise of your thinking seems to be

Printing money ALWAYS causes inflation

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]Unfortunately, the historical record shows that this is not the case. For example, since the 2008 financial crisis, the US has undergone 3 major waves of so-called "quantitative easing" or QE. This is basically the largest government printing spree in history. It has had a negligible effect on USD inflation. This was quickly followed by similar actions with the GPB, EUR and most recently the Japanese Yen: all with the same result: there may be some inflationary effect, but there is no central bank that has such loose controls on fiscal policy not to jimmy currency demand.[/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]While I don't always agree with Matías, he makes a good point about the Arg economy: you suddenly have 50% of the population incorporated into the economy that wasn't there before. That means more people chasing more pesos. BCRA currency printing is a reaction to this demand more than anything else.[/background]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]This is not about some stupid model the Kirchners developed or something (as much as they would like to take credit for it), it's just basic economics that have been followed by every country that has ever developed economically.[/background]

 

[John.St]

You couldn't make this up - everybody would know you were insane:

Scioli: CFK will leave Argentina in 'optimal condition' in 2015
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/142793/scioli-cfk-will-leave-argentina-in-optimal-condition-in-2015