Campaign Watch

[ARbound]

I mention Martin (I think I can be chummy with him, since we all know him so well by now) is the anointed one don't you think?
In the same way that Thatcher groomed Major and handed him the poisoned chalice.
John Major however, is a decent man.

We all know him, I swear, it's like he's an uncle or something! Reminds me of Mittens sort of...

 

[Matiasba]

So Matias, do you think we should wait till after the elections before the general public gets a clue about this character called Cabandie?

I was wrong, it didnt happen in february, but in May. Anyways, the correct thing is to appear when it happens, not 6 months later in the middle of a campaign.

 

[Matiasba]

Matias in the last 5 years people aren't getting richer, they are just spending more (saving less) because of inflation and this governments policies (including cepo cambiario). People's standard of living in the last few years (after the spike due to the correction from the crisis) is actually falling. It's quite amazing given the continued growth in incomes (due to higher export prices for grains and commodities plus the cash grabs from the pension funds, and raising of derechos de exportaciones/export taxes).

I agree that lately, lets say the last two years, the situation is getting worst, the inflation is hitting the poor a lot, and this is going down. But all that money the spent, they bought lots of things, people in villa 31, for instance, made an entire spare room to rent (1000 pesos/month), yes it is difficult and the ones that surpassed poverty will fall again into it when the recession cycle starts, but, look, after the militars in 1983, every single democratic government this country had, ended in a huge total political and economical crisis. The militars, with the financial crisis in 1982 and the war, Alfonsin, with hyperinflation in 1989, Menem/De la Rua, with the crisis of 2001, and this time, although there are lots of important issues, such as inflation, I have the feeling that it wont end like that. All in all, the country is in an good shape compared to the last years of these governments, we dont have debt, we dont have that poverty, we dont have unemployment, we have a reactivated industry, and for the first time someone put limits to the international banks, IMF, etc that are the people who used to make policies here, totally independent from what people voted. This have changed.

 

[John.St]

... we dont have debt, we dont have that poverty, ...

Argentina's Total external debt 2013/Q2 was U$S 135 mil millones (English: 135 billion, Europa: 135 milliards)
http://www.mecon.gov...rogeco/dsbb.htm


An estimated 11 million Argentines or 26.9% out of a population of 40 million live in poverty according to the Social Observatory from the Argentine Catholic University, (UCA) based on a survey taken at the end of last year.
http://en.mercopress...erty-conditions

‘Official poverty’ in Argentina 2.5 million people; private estimate: 11 million
according to data released by the controversial government’s stats office, Indec. A person ceases to be indigent in Argentina if he can feed on 6 Pesos daily
http://en.mercopress...mate-11-million

At least 17.8% of the Argentine population lives in indigence conditions, taking as reference a ‘Healthy Food Basket’ which estimates family monthly needs in 3.700 Pesos which is more that five times the official stats office Indec reference sum of 730 Pesos.
based on the findings of the University of Buenos Aires Nutrition School over a period of several years.
http://en.mercopress...utrition-report

Argentina’s dubious poverty line - The six-peso diet
On August 10th [2012] INDEC, the national statistics agency, declared that a family of four should be considered above the poverty line if its monthly food bill exceeded 688 pesos, equal to about six pesos per person per day.
http://www.economist.com/node/21562238

To live above the poverty line, a family of 4 only needs (per day):

1 liter of milk . $ 08
1 kg bread ...... $ 18
1 kg tomatoes ... $ 12
1 kg of meat .... $ 60
------------------------
Total ......... = $ 24 (INDEC math)

 

[ARbound]

we dont have debt, we dont have that poverty, we dont have unemployment

And I thought Moreno was the one asking about how to get money out of Arge to the USA when he's really been here longer...

It's funny how much the Ks can sound like the teabaggers, if you don't experience poverty or unemployment, or in Argentina's
case, underemployment especially, it's like it doesn't exist. Let me guess, all these people spending more than $6.00 ARS are
just lazy and don't know how to shop, right? Or they're being gluttons and eating 3 WHOLE meals a day!

Jesus, the more I think about it your comment above is the 21st Century equivalent of saying "Let them eat cake". So out of
touch...

 

[ARbound]

To live above the poverty line, a family of 4 only needs (per day):

1 liter of milk . $ 08
1 kg bread ...... $ 18
1 kg tomatoes ... $ 12
1 kg of meat .... $ 60
------------------------
Total ......... = $ 24 (INDEC math)

Yup, and 1+1 is 3. While we're at it, INDEC can show us how dividing by two results in HALF the inflation you actually have!

 

[Matiasba]

Im sorry, I expressed myself in a wrong way.

We have the better debt as a percentage of GDP since the dictatorship.
We have the same unemployment than Alfonsin, pre crisis 1989 and 2001 (2003=25%)
As I said before we had 53% of poverty and 30% indigence. Dont believe in Indec (nor in The Economist or UCA) but surely those numbers are (a lot) better now.

 

[John.St]

Im sorry, I expressed myself in a wrong way.

We have the better debt as a percentage of GDP since the dictatorship.
We have the same unemployment than Alfonsin, pre crisis 1989 and 2001 (2003=25%)
As I said before we had 53% of poverty and 30% indigence. Dont believe in Indec (nor in The Economist or UCA) but surely those numbers are (a lot) better now.

Doctor: "I am very sorry, mr. X, but you have cancer in your liver, stomach and your colon."
X: "Skin cancer too?"
Doc: "No"
"Ah, but then everything is much better than it could be."

Matias, in Argentina, which has resources to be among the ten - possibly even five - most affluent countries in the world, there is no reason to be the least satified with the present conditions.

If "it could be - and has been - worse" is enough to satisfy Argentinos, then I don't see Argentina having a future worth speaking of, forever chained to incompetent and corrupt politicians with the population accepting the condition.

 

[trennod]

And Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world...

Arguing with Matias is like beating a dead horse. These UBA graduates just can't see past the fact that because this government may have been better than the last doesn't mean it is actually any good.

 

[ARbound]

Doctor: "I am very sorry, mr. X, but you have cancer in your liver, stomach and your colon."
X: "Skin cancer too?"
Doc: "No"
"Ah, but then everything is much better than it could be."

Matias, in Argentina, which has resources to be among the ten - possibly even five - most affluent countries in the world, there is no reason to be the least satified with the present conditions.

If "it could be - and has been - worse" is enough to satisfy Argentinos, then I don't see Argentina having a future worth speaking of, forever chained to incompetent and corrupt politicians with the population accepting the condition.

This is something I've noticed among so many Argentines. It's the idea that it could be worse/it's been worse that I think psychologically blocks so many people here from demanding more from their leaders and institutions. This isn't to say the States or Europe is so much better, but look at Chile, things are pretty good there, and some people even argue they're a first world country, but that's not good enough for them, they want more, and that why it looks like Bachelet is going to sweep the floor with Matthei. Like John.St says, Argentina has so much potential, and it makes me really sad to see so many people here just accept the way things are. Perhaps it's out of fear, I don't know, but as I'm sure some of you likely remember, after the Soviet Union collapsed in the 90's there was a large debate (that was borderline racist) asking if Russians could handle democracy, and that whether it's just not in their nature. I sometimes wonder if this is the case with Argentina, and if so our only hope is an enlightened despot who passed Economics 101. Regardless, there are not happy scenarios for a nation this size. Talk about wasted talent/resources.