COVID-19 vaccine development pipeline gears up

[Wade K.]

no one died so far, but...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-trial-document/index.html

and there was another similar case on July 9, which was said not to have anything to do with the shot...
a bit of a coincidence wouldn't you think? young healthy trial participants become ill instantly after the shot, but it has not connected to vaccine?

Considering tens of thousands are in the trial, and CNN will spin anything into the worst scenario possible, not too worried. And it's not the only vaccine in trials.

 

[sergio]

I heard Biden warning people not to trust any vaccine that's rushed into production by Trump.
My doctor kinda agrees, politics aside the first batch of vaccine carries more risk. Also that it's worth travelling back to the US to get innoculated there instead of in Argentina.

Are you going to take the vaccine as soon as it's available or wait to make sure it's safe?
And do you think that the vaccine distributed in Arg will be as safe and effective as back home?

I don't think it will be safe anywhere. It's being rushed and this is not because of Trump's latest comments. The world is desperate to get the economy started again. The vaccine is being falsely promoted to pursue this agenda. Aside from its risks (google the 1976 flu vaccine in the US - people were paralyzed - some died because it was rushed) it's only going to be about 50% effective, for the elderly maybe 20%. That means the masks can't be discarded and social distancing will continue. So what's the point? If you are careful, wash hands and avoid large crowds you are probably nearly 100% safe. if you take the vaccine you run the risk of catastrophic side effects and even if you survive it unscathed, you will not be fully covered anyway! The catch is that governments will likely require it for visas.

 

[sergio]

Considering tens of thousands are in the trial, and CNN will spin anything into the worst scenario possible, not too worried. And it's not the only vaccine in trials.

CNN said nothing before Trump said a vaccine will soon be ready. The risks were known before then but CNN kept quiet. Now they are warning the public to make Trump look bad, Forget the politics, this vaccine is being rushed. That makes it risky.

 

[sergio]

True, possible. Also likely that they can be sued for extraordinary amounts of money if they screw up. With the capabilities scientists have today compared to 50 years ago that explains much of the speed with which they are moving. If they go through the recommended amount of trials and prove its effectiveness I'm taking it. And hope Argentina will push it so that we can get on with life.

In the US the pharms producing the vaccine cannot be sued. They have been given immunity - excuse the pun. I don't know if this is true in Argentina but I wouldn't expect to get anywhere if you take it and suffer dire side effects.

 

[Alby]

Un segundo voluntario de la candidata a vacuna de Oxford desarrolló rara enfermedad, revela informe

El protocolo fue publicado por AstraZeneca, asociada a la Universidad de Oxford en los ensayos. La farmacéutica señaló que no había pruebas suficientes para relacionar a la vacuna con las enfermedades.

larepublica.pe

Apparently the same (normally one in 236,000 chance per year) illness. According to one expert cited in the report, if a third case shows up, that's the end of the Oxford vaccine candidate.

 

[Wade K.]

In the US the pharms producing the vaccine cannot be sued. They have been given immunity - excuse the pun. I don't know if this is true in Argentina but I wouldn't expect to get anywhere if you take it and suffer dire side effects.

Didn't know that. But if it comes down to one or two people having serious side effects out of tens of thousands I'll still take it.

 

[Alby]

The problem is, I think, if a vaccine candidate leads to as few as three volunteers receiving the same serious side effect, we won't ever get the chance to take it because the trial won't continue and the vaccine won't gain approval.

I am fairly sure I read somewhere that less than five percent of vaccine candidates make it out of a phase 3 trial to approval. That's why I have never thought it was wise to pin my hopes of a return to my former life on a vaccine. It may take a very long time to come, if at all, and may not work very well when it does.

I ask myself the question: if a 50% effective vaccine comes out (in other words, there is a 50% chance that it does NOT protect me), would I walk out of the clínic feeling any more confident about shaking someone's hand, eating inside a restaurant, or going to a milonga? Probably not. Such a vaccine may protect me from illness or death (and for that reason I would probably take it), but it won't bring my old life back.

 

[sergio]

The problem is, I think, if a vaccine candidate leads to as few as three volunteers receiving the same serious side effect, we won't ever get the chance to take it because the trial won't continue and the vaccine won't gain approval.

I am fairly sure I read somewhere that less than five percent of vaccine candidates make it out of a phase 3 trial to approval. That's why I have never thought it was wise to pin my hopes of a return to my former life on a vaccine. It may take a very long time to come, if at all, and may not work very well when it does.

I ask myself the question: if a 50% effective vaccine comes out (in other words, there is a 50% chance that it does NOT protect me), would I walk out of the clínic feeling any more confident about shaking someone's hand, eating inside a restaurant, or going to a milonga? Probably not. Such a vaccine may protect me from illness or death (and for that reason I would probably take it), but it won't bring my old life back.

Such a vaccine may paralyze you or even kill you but if you wash your hands, keep away from crowds and use good judgment you are very unlikely to get sick. A vaccine may give you 50% or less protection if it doesn't produce grave side effects, We don't know too if the side effects could occur months or more later. Do you want to live with that anxiety? From my perspective taking normal precautions like frequent hand washing is something I can control. I cannot control an unknown substance injected into my system.

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

Hi Sergio,

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure as the saying goes.

Sure, I am with you. Practice good procedure and hygiene and a person is 3/4 of the way home on this one.

My particular thought(s) on a vaccine are as follows:

A- I hope one is available soon. And I hope it has a very high rate of being effective.

B- Even if A is a hit, it is going to take quite some time for it to be dispersed to the masses.

C- For me, I am in no hurry to be at the front of the line when my group is invited to be vaccinated. I'd rather keep to the current program and take a wait and see posture.

D- All things being equal, regardless of whatever, the path to "return to normal or close to it," is 24 months away from the moment people start the vaccination process. Meaning ... there is a long road ahead of us.

E- Assuming "D" to be accurate ... I have a lot of time on my hands to work on other parts of my life. My social life is somewhat on hold, but as long as I have great health and a lot of years ahead of me, which I do, I am patient as a person can be. It's a small price to pay ... just some time. And I'll spend / pass it as wisely as I can.

 

[sergio]

Hi Sergio,

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure as the saying goes.

Sure, I am with you. Practice good procedure and hygiene and a person is 3/4 of the way home on this one.

My particular thought(s) on a vaccine are as follows:

A- I hope one is available soon. And I hope it has a very high rate of being effective.

B- Even if A is a hit, it is going to take quite some time for it to be dispersed to the masses.

C- For me, I am in no hurry to be at the front of the line when my group is invited to be vaccinated. I'd rather keep to the current program and take a wait and see posture.

D- All things being equal, regardless of whatever, the path to "return to normal or close to it," is 24 months away from the moment people start the vaccination process. Meaning ... there is a long road ahead of us.

E- Assuming "D" to be accurate ... I have a lot of time on my hands to work on other parts of my life. My social life is somewhat on hold, but as long as I have great health and a lot of years ahead of me, which I do, I am patient as a person can be. It's a small price to pay ... just some time. And I'll spend / pass it as wisely as I can.

You are right but vaccines take YEARS to develop so this one is going to be risky - and what's the payoff? Maybe 50% effective? I've read 20% for the elderly. EVERYONE is not going to get it and it's going to take a couple of years to vaccinate a significant number of people -- and even then will life return to normal? Will there be theaters and concerts? A lot of things may just disappear.