COVID-19 vaccine development pipeline gears up

EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre

Registered
You are right but vaccines take YEARS to develop so this one is going to be risky - and what's the payoff? Maybe 50% effective? I've read 20% for the elderly. EVERYONE is not going to get it and it's going to take a couple of years to vaccinate a significant number of people -- and even then will life return to normal? Will there be theaters and concerts? A lot of things may just disappear.
Let's focus on movies only.

The days of the drive in are long dead, but believe it or not, there has been a micro resurgence over the past decade or so. Setting this seem,ent aside because it is so micro, let's move on to the main stream.

The movie cinema. They have gotten smaller and more expensive. Elbow to elbow with the next patron is going to be a huge problem when and if they re open. People are hyper focused on contact with another person going forward this is going to be a huge problem for movie theaters, sporting events, concerts, theater, cruise industry, travel etc ... Wherever people gather, it is going to be a consideration.

With Netflix, Amazon and all the other streaming services out there, I have to imagine that these changing times are going to play to their side of the industry. More and more people are going to opt to stay home for their movie viewing. And it's quite possible they may do it with invited friends who they know and trust. (Smaller groups.)

Online shopping is and has been and will continue to kill bricks and mortar retail. So shall the effect be for Netflix et al on the likes of Hoyts Cinemas etc...
 

Alby

Registered
Let's focus on movies only.

The days of the drive in are long dead, but believe it or not, there has been a micro resurgence over the past decade or so. Setting this seem,ent aside because it is so micro, let's move on to the main stream.

The movie cinema. They have gotten smaller and more expensive. Elbow to elbow with the next patron is going to be a huge problem when and if they re open. People are hyper focused on contact with another person going forward this is going to be a huge problem for movie theaters, sporting events, concerts, theater, cruise industry, travel etc ... Wherever people gather, it is going to be a consideration.

With Netflix, Amazon and all the other streaming services out there, I have to imagine that these changing times are going to play to their side of the industry. More and more people are going to opt to stay home for their movie viewing. And it's quite possible they may do it with invited friends who they know and trust. (Smaller groups.)

Online shopping is and has been and will continue to kill bricks and mortar retail. So shall the effect be for Netflix et al on the likes of Hoyts Cinemas etc...
Although I am, on the whole, pessimistic about a return to normality, I actually do believe most activities will come back, just in a changed and reduced form. Even cinema, theatre. And, eventually, even milongas.

The young people will ensure they do. Look around. Do we see any people under 30 worried about coronavirus? I don't.

I won't be going to the cinema, the theatre or any milonga. Maybe ever again. But that is my problem. In the future there will be a new class of haves (people under say 45), and have nots (the over 45s). Unfortunately for me, the virus has dumped me into the have nots class for the first time in my life. Bad luck, but I had a pretty good run up til now.

This new division in access to some of the fun things in life I saw right from the start, and everything I see around me as we start to open up makes me feel more confident in the prediction.
 

EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre

Registered
Although I am, on the whole, pessimistic about a return to normality, I actually do believe most activities will come back, just in a changed and reduced form. Even cinema, theatre. And, eventually, even milongas.

The young people will ensure they do. Look around. Do we see any people under 30 worried about coronavirus? I don't.

I won't be going to the cinema, the theatre or any milonga. Maybe ever again. But that is my problem. In the future there will be a new class of haves (people under say 45), and have nots (the over 45s). Unfortunately for me, the virus has dumped me into the have nots class for the first time in my life. Bad luck, but I had a pretty good run up til now.

This new division in access to some of the fun things in life I saw right from the start, and everything I see around me as we start to open up makes me feel more confident in the prediction.
Let me add this:

Youth = Lack of knowledge and experience in life.

Age = Knowledge and experience in life.

If you know nothing or very little, you are apt to do what you should not, but if you know better because you are older and have lived, you don't walk or run headfirst into trouble.

I prefer to know and allow myself the freedom of youth when it suits me. A balance on the whole.
 

sergio

Registered
The drug companies will keep telling us how safe it is. A vaccine normally takes YEARS (up to ten years) to develop and test. People can take their chances that they will be safe. I'm not convinced. I know someone who was paralyzed in 1976 after getting a swine flu shot rushed into production by the Ford Administration in the US. He was months in intensive care, took two years to recover speech and the ability to move his limbs. How effective will this vaccine be? 50% Maybe 20% for those 65+?
 

Alby

Registered
Has anyone else noticed how strongly the kiss-on-the-cheek-through-the-barbijo is mounting its comeback against the codo?
 

dsp27

Registered
The drug companies will keep telling us how safe it is. A vaccine normally takes YEARS (up to ten years) to develop and test. People can take their chances that they will be safe. I'm not convinced. I know someone who was paralyzed in 1976 after getting a swine flu shot rushed into production by the Ford Administration in the US. He was months in intensive care, took two years to recover speech and the ability to move his limbs. How effective will this vaccine be? 50% Maybe 20% for those 65+?
Well, the main issue with "conventional" vaccines is that these inject a neutralized/dead version of the virus. That requires YEARS of research and safety profiling, while the manufacturing process is very very long. With the current RNA based vaccines, only a protein fragment is used to create immunity. The main issue here is that the technology is new but on paper an RNA based vaccine is safer and cheaper.

With RNA based vaccines I would argue, the problem is not their side-effects profile BUT how effective they would be in preventing an infection.
 

sergio

Registered
Well, the main issue with "conventional" vaccines is that these inject a neutralized/dead version of the virus. That requires YEARS of research and safety profiling, while the manufacturing process is very very long. With the current RNA based vaccines, only a protein fragment is used to create immunity. The main issue here is that the technology is new but on paper an RNA based vaccine is safer and cheaper.

With RNA based vaccines I would argue, the problem is not their side-effects profile BUT how effective they would be in preventing an infection.
They are already telling us - around 50% efficacy, likely much less for those 65+. That means social distancing / masks will continue. Vaccine = only some protection + risk of side effects.
 
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