Did Trump save Venezuela?

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Venezuelans are still socialists at heart and haven't really assumed the responsibility for their miscalculations in the voting process, same goes for Argentines who refuse to admit to their nationalist obsessions and skewed sense of self-determination. Modern-day sovereignty, the way it used to be prior to creation of the internet and e-commerce, is long gone because of globalization but instead of embracing the gift of open market economy and transparent capitalist democracy, Argentines along with the Russians, Bolivians and all the rest who publicly support the dictator Maduro, choose to chew on their old precious populism while blindly believing that they can continue living and depending on the state for just about everything and in this case on the flawed sense of security and stability.

Currently, Maduro cannibalizes on the socialist sentiment of his own people and feeds them the narrative of the big uncle wanting to take over Venezuela, that is why the military is loyal to him, they wholeheartedly believe in the imperative to protect their own nation even when there is clearly nothing left of it. The soldiers there, much like the North Koreans, are soon going to eat plane corn in order to survive, in an environment like this armed uprising cannot be rules out.

I suspect the military are given more food rations, some medical care and a few perks to keep them loyal. I doubt it is just their belief in "socialism" that sustains them. Also consider that Venezuela is now a colonial outpost of Cuba. The Cubans are really in charge, not Maduro.
 
I suspect the military are given more food rations, some medical care and a few perks to keep them loyal. I doubt it is just their belief in "socialism" that sustains them. Also consider that Venezuela is now a colonial outpost of Cuba. The Cubans are really in charge, not Maduro.

I agree, it's not just the social ideology that keeps them loyal, they are also fearful of deterioration on the ground if Maduro leaves, too many variables at play, but he had already destroyed everything there is to destroy and with new elections relative stability can be returned where people can try to restart the economy and start growing and building again with the help of international investment, it's just that his loyals would be held responsible for their actions after the elections and they are scared of the legal consequences.

What makes you say that Cubans are in control? I don't know much about that, please explain.
 
When I lived in Florida 10-15 years ago I met many Veneuzalan exiles. They told a consistent story of Chavez pushing out the professionals and middle class, even upper class people and replacing them with immigrants that he lured with outrageous benefits like 10 cent a gallon gasoline and free housing. These are the people that are now left to rebuild Venezuela.
As the country's institutions collapsed he traded oil for Cuban doctors and medicines as well as Chinese military support. Now The Russians, Cubans and Chinese feel they have made an investment and don't want to lose it.
It's commonly accepted that Putin sees Venezuela as Ukraine II. Send in a few troops dressed as civilians and pretty soon he owns all or part of the country scoring him alot of 'strongman' points back home.
Further complicating rebuilding, I understand that Chavez also borrowed against future oil revenues so that now the country's won't have it's oil income for many years.
I wouldn't want the job of being the next president of Venezuela. Or Argentina.
 
This makes sense, many of the well educated professionals have left various developing countries and continuing to do so today, I think they call it "the brain drain" and if Venezuela has nobody to help it rebuild then Russia would most definitely be happy to work with Cuba and China to subdivide the country into smaller spheres of influence, although the real question here is what would be the response of the United States in case of foreign meddling in its own backyard? To what extend is the Trump administration going to intervene in case of an arm conflict between the official government backed by Russia and China versus the American backed opposition? Another Syria or are the people of Venezuela less likely to slaughter one another the way that Arabs love to do it so much? (Assuming both sides are well armed and funded)
 
Venezuelans are still socialists at heart and haven't really assumed the responsibility for their miscalculations in the voting process

The ones that were tired of socialism all emigrated elsewhere. It is the ones who remain that are too dumb or apathetic to understand the need for change. That is one of the bad parts about open immigration is that it impoverishes more people than it helps. If Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Argentina, the USA, etc, all closed their borders to Venezuelans then the socialist cycle would have stopped a long time ago.

Instead, the most motivated and dissatisfied (AKA, agents of change) fled the country. That 5-10% that left is like a pressure relief valve on the political system ensuring it never changes. Impoverishing the 90% that stay. That is a dirty secret of open borders that few talk about. The unintended consequences.
 
Cuban support for the Maduro regime is not free, nor ideological. Maduro sends daily 100,000 barrels of oil to Cuba. She uses some and sells the rest, as in the URSS times. The failed communist regime in Havana needs a backer, or it will fold.
Anyway, this may give an opportunity to Macri. He may declare that when Maduro falls, he may send the equivalent of the subsidy to Cuba(in US dollars) to Venezuela, in food, medical drugs, etc,.This will kill two birds in one shot:
A) Will increase our exports in about 1,460,000,000 USD a year
B) Will send the Cuban regine into a terminal crisis.
 
I agree, it's not just the social ideology that keeps them loyal, they are also fearful of deterioration on the ground if Maduro leaves, too many variables at play, but he had already destroyed everything there is to destroy and with new elections relative stability can be returned where people can try to restart the economy and start growing and building again with the help of international investment, it's just that his loyals would be held responsible for their actions after the elections and they are scared of the legal consequences.

What makes you say that Cubans are in control? I don't know much about that, please explain.

This is not news. Cuba set up and controls the surveillance system in Venezuela. They provide extensive military assistance. There are Cubans in the Venezuelan armed forces. Cuban spies are all over the country monitoring the people. See an article in today's NYT: With spies and Other Operatives, a Nation Looms over Venezuela's Crisis: Cuba". And let me quote yesterday's WSJ editorial: " The crucial but underreported question now is whether dictator Nicolas Maduro's protectors in Cuba and Russia will intervene to stop this democratic uprising ...Cuba controls Mr. Maduro's personal security detail and has built a counterintelligence network around the high command. Nations that want better for Venezuela should focus as much on Havana as Caracas. If civilized countries want to end the starvation and migration of Venezuelans, they have to convince the Cuban regime to back off...Cuba is the imperial power in Caracas, not the US..."
 
Cuba is the imperial power in Caracas, not the US..."

This clarifies a lot of things, but let's dissect this a bit:

With all the support that Maduro's elite receives from their authoritarian friends, it makes sense for them to try and ride out the pressures from the democratic capitalist governments around the world who want to avert a bigger humanitarian crisis and to prevent a full out suppression North Korea style if not an actual armed civilian conflict but the authorities of course have vested economic interests independently from the social well-being of the population who have lost most of their rights. Now the people there are just another resources much like oil and will be exploited with no judiciary or any independent body to protect their faded rights.

EU gave a one week ultimatum to Maduro to hold fair elections and step down, that's not going to happen so they are about to recognize the self proclaimed Guaido with enormous public support. Along with the United states and most of the South American countries, Bolsonaro is also being very vocal about rejecting Maduro's grip on Venezuela but Mexicos new president Andres Manuel rides on the principles of non-intervention, self-determination and the peaceful settlement of disputes (whatever that means), there is a suspicion of his direct involvement with the official Venezuelan dictatorship and that's unfortunate because Mexicos' green light to Maduro is a perfect recipe for a real divide from within and eventual disintegration of the country if the people decide to pursue an armed resistance.

Just today i read on reddit that Russian sent 400 military intelligence officials to Caracas plus possible weapons for what appears to be an entrenchment, I assume United States has done the same with the opposition so yes Venezuela is no longer a homogeneous independent democratically elected nation the way it used to be. Perhaps a decade from now there will be factions and certain territorial divisions within the country representing opposing political views with the backing of various allies around the world, much like it is in the post-war Syria where Assad will never regain all the lost territory nor the loyalty of most Syrians who want him out.

Russia is a dominating imperial coastal power in control of the naval forces and naval shipping routes there, Turkey asserting itself and even annexing territory in the north of the country (Idlib province) while flexing its muscle against the kurdish population. Israel is dominating the south of the Syrian border ensuring it's own guarantee for security and competing with the Iranian military establishment from the east and just about anywhere from the air, they bomb Syrians and Iranian military warehouses on regular bases and there is not much that Russia or Assad can do about that, there still is a lot of competition and war in Syria in spite of what the media says, so it is no longer a sovereign state or even a country, it's questionable to what will happened to Assad's regime in the next number of years.

Is it possible that there will be a FARC like uprising in Venezuela with available funding coming from international interest groups supporting a long term resistance movement lead by the disenchanted civilians? Against Maduro's regime in control of all the resources and country's remaining industries? And will there be more factions competing for influence and illegal trade routes to fund their activities through weapon and people smuggling, sort of what happen in Libya after the war?

What are the chances that such grim fate awaits Venezuela? What do you guys think? Any parallels with the Arab world?
 
Try selling meat or sugar to the usa or dairy products to the EU and then talk to me about free markets and so forth.
Free market are a gimmick imposed on poor countries by the richer ones,they make you open your markets while closing theirs.
 
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