Cuba is the imperial power in Caracas, not the US..."
This clarifies a lot of things, but let's dissect this a bit:
With all the support that Maduro's elite receives from their authoritarian friends, it makes sense for them to try and ride out the pressures from the democratic capitalist governments around the world who want to avert a bigger humanitarian crisis and to prevent a full out suppression North Korea style if not an actual armed civilian conflict but the authorities of course have vested economic interests independently from the social well-being of the population who have lost most of their rights. Now the people there are just another resources much like oil and will be exploited with no judiciary or any independent body to protect their faded rights.
EU gave a one week ultimatum to Maduro to hold fair elections and step down, that's not going to happen so they are about to recognize the self proclaimed Guaido with enormous public support. Along with the United states and most of the South American countries, Bolsonaro is also being very vocal about rejecting Maduro's grip on Venezuela but Mexicos new president Andres Manuel rides on the principles of non-intervention, self-determination and the peaceful settlement of disputes (whatever that means), there is a suspicion of his direct involvement with the official Venezuelan dictatorship and that's unfortunate because Mexicos' green light to Maduro is a perfect recipe for a real divide from within and eventual disintegration of the country if the people decide to pursue an armed resistance.
Just today i read on reddit that Russian sent 400 military intelligence officials to Caracas plus possible weapons for what appears to be an entrenchment, I assume United States has done the same with the opposition so yes Venezuela is
no longer a homogeneous independent democratically elected nation the way it used to be. Perhaps a decade from now there will be factions and certain territorial divisions within the country representing opposing political views with the backing of various allies around the world, much like it is in the post-war Syria where Assad will never regain all the lost territory nor the loyalty of most Syrians who want him out.
Russia is a dominating imperial coastal power in control of the naval forces and naval shipping routes there, Turkey asserting itself and even annexing territory in the north of the country (Idlib province) while flexing its muscle against the kurdish population. Israel is dominating the south of the Syrian border ensuring it's own guarantee for security and competing with the Iranian military establishment from the east and just about anywhere from the air, they bomb Syrians and Iranian military warehouses on regular bases and there is not much that Russia or Assad can do about that, there still is a lot of competition and war in Syria in spite of what the media says, so it is no longer a sovereign state or even a country, it's questionable to what will happened to Assad's regime in the next number of years.
Is it possible that there will be a FARC like uprising in Venezuela with available funding coming from international interest groups supporting a long term resistance movement lead by the disenchanted civilians? Against Maduro's regime in control of all the resources and country's remaining industries? And will there be more factions competing for influence and illegal trade routes to fund their activities through weapon and people smuggling, sort of what happen in Libya after the war?
What are the chances that such grim fate awaits Venezuela? What do you guys think? Any parallels with the Arab world?