Do you fear a crash similar to 2001?

[Carlos Danger]

Hey Wrangler, if you agree with Stan or not, you come off as completely unhinged.

All your arguments are filled with hyperbole, devoid of actual numbers, and misrepresenting what the other person said. It's hard to take you seriously.

For example -

Why are you comparing us to Venezuela???? To try to mitigate how bad things are really here in Argentina????? Of course things are not as bad here in Venezuela, nor will they be probably, but DO YOU have any idea how bad things are in Venezuela??? There is no comparison, but that does not mean we don't have the right to criticize Macri. You sound like a political operative to me....

Stan mentioned Venezuela because Perry said "this is huge news and mean that we are in venezuela territory where hiperinflation and devaluation are constants . "

Why didn't write this rant with multiple question marks and capital letters to Perry instead?

PS - I'm not a Macri "operative" or supporter.

 

[basemdawod]

I think the financial crisis hit most emerging market countries (China, Turkey, Russia, South Africa)
Including Argentina, which recently returned to the Emerging Markets Index, but why Argentina is the only country that has been helped by the International Monetary Fund and the largest loan in history of 50 billion dollars?

 

[PoorSoul]

Ultimately a country's political and economic system arises from it's culture. I do not see Argentina having a revolution of expectations that would enable it to transform it's economy. Unions would need to be broken up. Safety nets torn away. Taxes lowered. Work ethic and education improved.

Unions and government populism is religion in Argentina. Argentinians want to do capitalism with "Argentinian characteristics" and it does not work. Reality does not shape to Argentinians. Argentinians must shape to reality, but the message has not be received.

There has been a secular trend in the last decades of capital chasing developing markets. Businesses from establish developing countries looking to create consumer markets in new frontiers. This has been driven by decades of safe shipping lanes due to a global peace that has allowed global trade to flourish. And, there has been a general top-down push for greater globalism and interdependence to, hopefully, prevent another World War.

We now see this trend showing signs of slowing. Populations are turning more nationalistic and tribal. Global trade growth is slowing. Some country's are becoming more mercantile. The world is moving from a one super power world to a multi-super power world, which is always less stable as minor countries must choose sides and be pitted against each other instead of walk in lock-step with the (hopefully) benevolent dictator of global policy.

Uncertainty is being generated and during times of uncertainty the appetite for risk is reduced. Investor response will be to move to safe havens. Unfortunately for Argentina, a safe haven it is not. Given the low taxes in the US, low cost of financing, regulatory certainty, etc, there is little reason for anyone to invest in Argentina. That is not even including the labor laws here, poor access to technology due to insane importation rules, etc.

There is a lot more going on than the mere "economic correction" of a few developing markets due to mismanagement though that mismanagement certainly doesn't help. This is the rumblings of a larger shift in the global world order. Argentina economy is just one casuality, but there will be more winners and losers.

 

[camberiu]

 

[sergio]

Ultimately a country's political and economic system arises from it's culture. I do not see Argentina having a revolution of expectations that would enable it to transform it's economy. Unions would need to be broken up. Safety nets torn away. Taxes lowered. Work ethic and education improved.

Unions and government populism is religion in Argentina. Argentinians want to do capitalism with "Argentinian characteristics" and it does not work. Reality does not shape to Argentinians. Argentinians must shape to reality, but the message has not be received.

There has been a secular trend in the last decades of capital chasing developing markets. Businesses from establish developing countries looking to create consumer markets in new frontiers. This has been driven by decades of safe shipping lanes due to a global peace that has allowed global trade to flourish. And, there has been a general top-down push for greater globalism and interdependence to, hopefully, prevent another World War.

We now see this trend showing signs of slowing. Populations are turning more nationalistic and tribal. Global trade growth is slowing. Some country's are becoming more mercantile. The world is moving from a one super power world to a multi-super power world, which is always less stable as minor countries must choose sides and be pitted against each other instead of walk in lock-step with the (hopefully) benevolent dictator of global policy.

Uncertainty is being generated and during times of uncertainty the appetite for risk is reduced. Investor response will be to move to safe havens. Unfortunately for Argentina, a safe haven it is not. Given the low taxes in the US, low cost of financing, regulatory certainty, etc, there is little reason for anyone to invest in Argentina. That is not even including the labor laws here, poor access to technology due to insane importation rules, etc.

There is a lot more going on than the mere "economic correction" of a few developing markets due to mismanagement though that mismanagement certainly doesn't help. This is the rumblings of a larger shift in the global world order. Argentina economy is just one casuality, but there will be more winners and losers.

You are absolutely correct, especially this:

Unions and government populism is religion in Argentina. Argentinians want to do capitalism with "Argentinian characteristics" and it does not work. Reality does not shape to Argentinians. Argentinians must shape to reality, but the message has not be received.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

You are absolutely correct, especially this:

Unions and government populism is religion in Argentina. Argentinians want to do capitalism with "Argentinian characteristics" and it does not work. Reality does not shape to Argentinians. Argentinians must shape to reality, but the message has not be received.

The main issue Argentina has since 2015 is a ultra corrupt government that is making profit destroying the economy.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

I think the financial crisis hit most emerging market countries (China, Turkey, Russia, South Africa)
Including Argentina, which recently returned to the Emerging Markets Index, but why Argentina is the only country that has been helped by the International Monetary Fund and the largest loan in history of 50 billion dollars?

As far as I understand Argentina has large resources of lithium and Macri abolished tax for minning it.
Second, he put Vaca Muerta as a guarantie of payment.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Someone asked yesterday who are they:

Dujove, with fast reflex, sold all his Lebacs and bought usd before the crash.

 

[Fdipo]

You are absolutely correct, especially this:

Unions and government populism is religion in Argentina. Argentinians want to do capitalism with "Argentinian characteristics" and it does not work.

Except all the countries in Europe and Canada, Australia, Taiwan etc, where it absolutely does work much better than the alternative US capitalism.

Social democracy is not some uniquely Argentine thing.

Those who post here proscribing the end of unions, worker rights etc are quite clearly just Americans who can't envision any alternative to their own disastrous system, where the interests of capital always come first. But the fact is the rest of the world already sought out an alternative 80 years ago, and it works much better for the people than the US' good ol' "die because you can't afford healthcare, 20% poverty rates" system.

People do not exist to serve the needs of the economy, the economy exists to serve the needs of people.

 

[julian63]

The main issue Argentina has since 2015 is a ultra corrupt government that is making profit destroying the economy.

And no "ultra" corruption before 2015? Do you believe that?