Dollar Blue Rate After The Elections

[ajoknoblauch]

Dreaming of a Blue Chriiistmaaaaaas.....

Season's greetings from the King:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPFZIYywABc

 

[che]

Anecdotal evidence something is afoot: my acquiatance who works for AFIP told me yesterday he was booking a $15K vacation. According to his schedule, it had to be booked this weekend. This guy always has perfect purchase timing. About 2 years ago when exchange was around 4.5 before the controls he was desperate to spend $300K on a second apartment. Within days of his purchase the blue took off etc.

 

[Gringoboy]

So useful to know people on the inside.
I mean that.

 

[Alicia karr]

Anecdotal evidence something is afoot: my acquiatance who works for AFIP told me yesterday he was booking a $15K vacation. According to his schedule, it had to be booked this weekend. This guy always has perfect purchase timing. About 2 years ago when exchange was around 4.5 before the controls he was desperate to spend $300K on a second apartment. Within days of his purchase the blue took off etc.

Ok so being a natural worrier, what do you think it means other than that your friend likes to take really nice vacations?.....

 

[internationalguy]

Blue rate at 14 anyone???

 

[Rich One]

Blue rate at 14 anyone???

Sure 2014 sometime.....I need an $18 peso dollar.... soon to have the same buying power of 2003... B)

 

[French jurist]

I've mentionned that before but I recall paying a complete parrilla for two back in 2003, with a bottle of Château Vieux, with 2 coffees, and I had paid 17 pesos. Back then, there was only the official rate and I think it was around 3:1. Therefore, that was 5.7 USD.

Nowadays, the same dinner would likely cost 140 pesos for the parrilla ("parrilla de barrio", nothing fancy) + 100 pesos for the Château Vieux (retail price around 65 pesos) + 12.5x2=25 pesos for the coffees = 265 pesos. Therefore the Cueva rate would need to reach 46:1 to pay 5.7 USD...

We're still very very far from the 2003 situation (hopefully for Argentina).


Same calculation for an apartment I started renting in 2003: was a 4/5 BR, about 100 sq. meters, plus 50 sq. meters of terrace (kind of penthouse = last floor, full floor, etc.). I was paying 1.200 pesos back then => with a 3:1 exchange rate that was 400 USD.

Nowadays (approx.), the rental price for the same apartment is likely around 9.000 pesos (if not more... was a 2 years standard agreement) => The Cueva rate would need to be 23:1 to pay 400 USD.

So I guess the Cueva rate would need to reach around 30:1 to create the same 2003 situation.

 

[internationalguy]

Sure 2014 sometime.....I need an $18 peso dollar.... soon to have the same buying power of 2003... B)

I don't think it would be that simple. I've seen places raise prices twice in 5 months.... Those of us lucky enough to have access to dollars will be ahead but inflation will also affect us.

 

[Rich One]

I don't think it would be that simple. I've seen places raise prices twice in 5 months.... Those of us lucky enough to have access to dollars will be ahead but inflation will also affect us.

I said if before but the audience is renewed, I follow the Tulipan Economics ... A box of 3 was $1 peso today is $6 pesos , therefore 3 rate then x 6 = $18
The McDonald ice cream cone was also $1 peso now $6...

 

[internationalguy]

The first time I was in Argentina people would try to slip tourists fake ARS $20s, it was totally worth the effort. I heard some stories too. I guess those days are over since no one is going to care enough to examine a 20. They do understandable check every time a 100 is exchanged. I just remember being here a few years ago when a 20 still meant something.