Dollar Value Predictions 2021/2022

[QuilmesSlo]

FWIW, I view stabilization as a positive -- the peso cannot collapse indefinitely without terrible ramifications.

 

[Jerbo]

The dollar has now declined 30% against the Argentine peso. As Donald said would happen if the Democrats won the White House and Congress.

Many of you mocked that prediction - one poster in particular. Now here we are.

 

[Dougie]

I mocked him and still will.

That the dollar blue has declined against the peso in the last few months because of the US election is laughable. It's a small illiquid market that can be moved by just a few individuals. High net people are using ccl for the wealth tax (sell dollars to get ccl rate and pay at official in pesos), ag exports, intervention by the government in the blue market, less pressure from travel and other arg specific factors.

Most in the markets here, expect it to pop again the second half of April. That won't be because the markets are so impressed with Biden, but will be because of Argentina specific factors, like what has been happening now.

Are the spending bills of 2020 (Trump) and 2021 (Biden) going to erode the value of dollar against legitimate stores of value like BTC and precious metals? Yes. Against the Argentine peso...haha

If you believe it's more than a temporary movement, then you should move a portion of your dollars in pesos to profit. Buy pesos, Argentine ADRs, etc

 

[Jerbo]

I mocked him and still will.

That the dollar blue has declined against the peso in the last few months because of the US election is laughable. It's a small illiquid market that can be moved by just a few individuals. High net people are using ccl for the wealth tax (sell dollars to get ccl rate and pay at official in pesos), ag exports, intervention by the government in the blue market, less pressure from travel and other arg specific factors.

Most in the markets here, expect it to pop again the second half of April. That won't be because the markets are so impressed with Biden, but will be because of Argentina specific factors, like what has been happening now.

Are the spending bills of 2020 (Trump) and 2021 (Biden) going to erode the value of dollar against legitimate stores of value like BTC and precious metals? Yes. Against the Argentine peso...haha

If you believe it's more than a temporary movement, then you should move a portion of your dollars in pesos to profit. Buy pesos, Argentine ADRs, etc

He said the dollar would decline 30% against the Argentine peso if the Democrats won both WH and Congress. You scorned that prediction. Now that prediction has come true. You can print all the words you want. It doesn't make any difference. You were wrong. He was right.

 

[Dougie]

The implication was that it would be that the election would be the cause of the dollar falling in the ccl market which is not the case. I work in finance.

Please explain to me how the Democrats winning the white house and congress has caused the dollar to decline against the peso in the ccl/mep markets? Maybe, I'll learn something from you.

I'm guessing you are some boomer that views everything through a political lens.

 

[Ries]

A factor that has not been discussed- normally around December, the dollar becomes very desired- for vacations in Uruguay and Miami et al. This year, no travel. No travel bump for the dollar vs peso. Usually this is at least 10% to 20%, and a lot more relevant to Argentines with money than who won the US election.

Anyway, I am going with Warren Zevon's prediction-
I predict this hotel will be standing, until I pay my bill.

 

[Dougie]

Usually this is at least 10% to 20%, and a lot more relevant to Argentines with money than who won the US election.

Indeed. That the rich in argentine suddenly sold their dollars and reallocated into the peso because of the election is a joke.

The overall trend this year is that the blue will gain on the peso.

 

[camel]

The dollar has now declined 30% against the Argentine peso. As Donald said would happen if the Democrats won the White House and Congress.

Many of you mocked that prediction - one poster in particular. Now here we are.

Many would say it was worth it.

Bitcoin not affected.

 

[QuilmesSlo]

The dollar EURO exchange rate is more less unchanged since the election, and the dollar has actually gained against the swiss franc over the same interval.

This is actually a much better sign -- namely, the potential stabilization of the peso blue rate, which is a good thing for everybody.

 

[antipodean]

This is actually a much better sign -- namely, the potential stabilization of the peso blue rate, which is a good thing for everybody.

Good thing? In principle, yes. Sustainable...? Not so sure.

If I understand correctly the blue is only down because the government are spending so much to keep the MEP and CCL down, making these legal channels more desirable than the parallel. But sooner or later they need to spend that money on other things especially as inflation is already far higher than they budgeted for.

I also understand that another factor to suppressing the dollar is the government is making imports more difficult in many sectors to further cut off demand - but this has a longer term negative effect. For example the farmer that can’t get a new tractor tyre because imports are nearly impossible and costs for remaining stock are sky high ultimately can’t plow his crops to export them for dollars and then share those dollars with the state.