Dollar Value Predictions 2021/2022

[Ries]

The dollar EURO exchange rate is more less unchanged since the election, and the dollar has actually gained against the swiss franc over the same interval.

This is actually a much better sign -- namely, the potential stabilization of the peso blue rate, which is a good thing for everybody.

This obviously proves that Argentines are financially much smarter than Europeans, as they picked up on the horrible-ness of Biden, and reacted by dumping dollars to buy pesos, while Europeans foolishly did not, right? I am in the camp that says, the President of the US can only affect the Peso/dollar rate by declaring war on Argentina.

Literally trillions of dollars (about 6.6 Trillion a day) are spent on the foreign exchange market globally every single day, most traded by computers, who, obviously, dont vote. The idea that the Peso would be singled out by these automated trades because the Republicans are morally right is a bit of a stretch, in my view.

 

[QuilmesSlo]

Good thing? In principle, yes. Sustainable...? Not so sure.

If I understand correctly the blue is only down because the government are spending so much to keep the MEP and CCL down, making these legal channels more desirable than the parallel. But sooner or later they need to spend that money on other things especially as inflation is already far higher than they budgeted for.

I also understand that another factor to suppressing the dollar is the government is making imports more difficult in many sectors to further cut off demand - but this has a longer term negative effect. For example the farmer that can’t get a new tractor tyre because imports are nearly impossible and costs for remaining stock are sky high ultimately can’t plow his crops to export them for dollars and then share those dollars with the state.

So I said "potential" stabilization.... One can hope; I realize the bounce reduces purchasing power for many but the peso has to stabilize somewhere or the alternative is collapse. I am hopeful and skeptical at the same time.

 

[antipodean]

So I said "potential" stabilization.... One can hope; I realize the bounce reduces purchasing power for many but the peso has to stabilize somewhere or the alternative is collapse. I am hopeful and skeptical at the same time.

Even if it were to “stabilize” now, with inflation at almost 4% per month even with most wages and countless prices frozen well below inflation, all it means is that things are getting more expensive in real terms. And we know how much this country hates dealing with reality. When this little bubble in time does burst, it will be with a loud bang.

That said if I cast my memory back to the CFK days I seem to remember a really bizarre moment (a few months leading up to an election, obviously) where the brecha closed, inflation was high but underreported, peso was “stable” and a coffee in BA cost more than a coffee in London. Things here were really expensive even by European standards. A few months later it all collapsed and those with the dollars were again living like kings.
One can try but one simply can’t sell a Honda Civic at the price of a Mercedes Benz AMG.

 

[Fiscal]

Not far away from 100:1

 

[garryl]

Time to visit Argentina if AR gov opens the door.

 

[Rich One]

Time to visit Argentina if AR gov opens the door.

After the October Elections its free fall..? Foreign tourists 2022..!

 

[cuando_volverá]

I predict it will be higher than the 3 pesos per dollar it was when I first came and bought my apartment.

3.1 when I arrived in 2007.

 

[Redpossum]

After the October Elections its free fall..? Foreign tourists 2022..!

I suspect you're right about the Blue exploding after the elections in October

3.1 when I arrived in 2007.

IIRC, it was only 7 or so to the dollar when I arrived in 2014

 

[antipodean]

We should be watching what is happening now with the IMF “deal” the government had hoped for collapsing, Argentine bonds are now in free fall.
This has an impact on the MEP and CCL to USD (that WU uses) with the MEP now 139 and the CCL heading towards the low-140s. This signals inflation in dollar terms as the brecha reduces while inflation remains higher and above the devaluation of the official, meaning that (for a while) Argentina may get more expensive for dollar earners.

For example, yesterday WU was 175 to the EUR and now it is 171 and dropping.

How the blue will or can respond is what we now need to wait and see.

 

[garryl]

After the October Elections its free fall..? Foreign tourists 2022..!

Rich one, when the custom is open ? I like to be the first one to taste lomo at Don Jilio with the new exchange rate.