Dollar Value Predictions 2021/2022

[Alpinista]

There is some movement in the blue / dolar libre this week. If I am not mistaken, it went 10 pesos up this week to 150.

Is the period of relative calm over?

The Contado con Liqui (which is more relevant for the Western Union rate) seems to be stable. (Having said that, it is also a bit unusual - as we have seen over the last few weeks and months - that the CCL was higher than the blue)

 

[¡Sencillamente yo!]

I think the calm may be over.

 

[antipodean]

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There is some movement in the blue / dolar libre this week. If I am not mistaken, it went 10 pesos up this week to 150.

Is the period of relative calm over?

The Contado con Liqui (which is more relevant for the Western Union rate) seems to be stable. (Having said that, it is also a bit unusual - as we have seen over the last few weeks and months - that the CCL was higher than the blue)

I am starting to wonder if the cooler demand for the blue has something to do with virtual currency alternatives becoming preferred by savers etc. The timing does come just as bitcoin values went down significantly and bitcoin buyers get jittery. We know the government are spending millions "anchoring" the CCL and MEP in place and these don't seem to be moving proportionally to the blue as we have seen in the past. Neither has there been a big shift in country risk rating. Not sure if this is a blip or the start of the next wave of devaluation.

 

[Alfred_Arnold]

I am starting to wonder if the cooler demand for the blue has something to do with virtual currency alternatives becoming preferred by savers etc. The timing does come just as bitcoin values went down significantly and bitcoin buyers get jittery. We know the government are spending millions "anchoring" the CCL and MEP in place and these don't seem to be moving proportionally to the blue as we have seen in the past. Neither has there been a big shift in country risk rating. Not sure if this is a blip or the start of the next wave of devaluation.

I would love to think that the crypto market is making serious headways here.

But I would esteem a solid "no", and that the blue has been artificially pushed down immediately since its high of 196 due to selling/liquidating of bonds wherever the government could rascar to avoid the mega psychological milestone of 200:1. They are running out of said assets to liquidate. I predict they'll find one other sweet sweet stash before the elections to at least minimize the fall towards a serious milestone, whether it be 200 or 250.

 

[jblaze5779]

The blue has been depressed and the wu ccl rose nearly 7 pesos this week. I wouldn't call the ccl flat.

 

[Ries]

I really doubt enough Argentines are into crypto currencies to affect the blue rate. I would guess the soy industry, wine, and argentine manufacturers each have a much bigger influence on the rates. Plus- no vacations in Uruguay or Miami, which, normally, fuel seasonal variations in the blue. Most people dont have enough loose cash to buy dollars heavily, most companies are not selling enough to need to buy imported parts and materials in dollars- the economy is slow. The current government is not spending anything like what Macri spent to boost the peso- if we believe his claims, a large part of the 44 billion he borrowed went down that particular drain. Fernandina does not have anywhere near that amount of cash lying around to just buy dollars with.

 

[Wade K.]

Do Argentines have access to buying gold and silver? If the U.S. has serious inflation due to printing trillions and the Dollar devalues significantly would that upset the blue market for Dollars?

 

[¡Sencillamente yo!]

Do Argentines have access to buying gold and silver? If the U.S. has serious inflation due to printing trillions and the Dollar devalues significantly would that upset the blue market for Dollars?

It EE UU were to have run away inflation it would DEFINITELY send ripples, NO, make that WAVES, through the world's financial markets.

 

[jblaze5779]

I suppose inflation in the US is helping Arg keep the blue rate down for now.

I guess you could just go to the jewelry shop and buy gold if you really wanted to.

 

[Ries]

Regardless of inflation in the USA, the paper american hundred dollar bill has a life of its own- it is the currency of choice, in many parts of the world, where local currencies are questionable, where banks are not to be trusted. over 2/3 of the actual paper bills are not even in the USA, and are used for all sorts of transactions, legal or not, by people who dont know the Federal Reserve bank from a hole in the ground, who care naught about US debt levels, and, for many, dont even read.
Drug deals in the golden triangle, asset smuggling from Moscow to Cyprus, passage from Turkey to Greece by rubber boat, Cocaine deals in Columbia, car sales in the persian gulf, even house sales in Buenos Aires- the Benjamin has a life of its own, which is reflected by the blue rate, completely independent of what economists or doom predictors say about the US economy, and, for the foreseeable future, it will.
A hundred bucks has spending power. Its disconnected to reality, and has been for decades.