Economists warn electing Milei would spell devastation

[grosso95]

ADR's of Argentinean stocks in WS up 42 % or more. The dollar official tomorrow estimated at $500/$600 pesos according to C5N expert Bercovich

Please stop watching C5N...

 

[NomadTrader]

I think the problem is far far worse than Massa, Cristina, and the President all being awol at the same moment, or even the debt rollover talks coming in, or even the congressional balance that has sort of already doomed Milei's presidency, or the complete dedication of the state employees to foiling and disobeying Milei at every turn.

I think it's also that Milei has gravely underestimated the scale of the problem and is the dog that caught the car. Forget Trump or Bolsonaro, who were incompetent self-servicers that inherited well-performing countries and economies. Milei is a guy way smarter than both, but who has far less power to change things and a far far more catastrophic situation. He may end up following through on his most radical ideas (in fact, I think for sure he will) because there is no other plausible path, everything else has been tried.

Like, the guy is about to become the most hated man in the history of Argentina, while he completely reforms politics, and probably does make Argentina a lot wealthier.

He needs to be tough.

Fire any/all govt employees for disobeying mandates and orders.

Protesters that engage in violence or destruction of property need to be punished to the full extent of the law.

Give business the right to fire disruptive employees members of labor unions who engage in any violence or destruction.

Complete transformation of Argentine society is needed, otherwise the rot and decay will just continue for another cycle.

 

[cuando_volverá]

Please stop watching C5N...

Good advice no matter the situation or your political persuasion.

 

[wrangler]

I think the problem is far far worse than Massa, Cristina, and the President all being awol at the same moment, or even the debt rollover talks coming in, or even the congressional balance that has sort of already doomed Milei's presidency, or the complete dedication of the state employees to foiling and disobeying Milei at every turn.

I think it's also that Milei has gravely underestimated the scale of the problem and is the dog that caught the car. Forget Trump or Bolsonaro, who were incompetent self-servicers that inherited well-performing countries and economies. Milei is a guy way smarter than both, but who has far less power to change things and a far far more catastrophic situation. He may end up following through on his most radical ideas (in fact, I think for sure he will) because there is no other plausible path, everything else has been tried.

Like, the guy is about to become the most hated man in the history of Argentina, while he completely reforms politics, and probably does make Argentina a lot wealthier.

How will Milei manage to implement all these reforms, especially without the backing of Congress and the popular will? The question of how a single individual can enact political reform looms large, considering the necessity of widespread support and collaboration. Please explain, a step-by-step outline of Milei's strategies for overcoming these barriers. Amidst these considerations, there's a real possibility that some voters may come to regret their decision. The opposition from labor unions and worker organizations, such as the Gremios and Sindicatos, is formidable, and could make Milei's presidency an uphill battle.

Adding to these complexities is Milei's commitment to a coalition government, which inherently limits his authoritative power. This arrangement suggests that his presidency won’t be characterized by unilateral decision-making, but rather by negotiation and compromise. I anticipate that Milei might disappoint many of his supporters. Milei's agenda, constrained and perhaps divergent from their expectations, may not suffice to fulfill the promises perceived by those who voted for him. Such a scenario casts doubt on the likelihood of Milei completing his term, As we move forward, it becomes a matter of observing how Milei navigates these very difficult challenges and what the eventual outcomes of his presidency will be.

 

[Rich One]

Please stop watching C5N...

If you watch them you will know where they're coming from...!

 

[NomadTrader]

How will Milei manage to implement all these reforms, especially without the backing of Congress and the popular will? The question of how a single individual can enact political reform looms large, considering the necessity of widespread support and collaboration. Please explain, a step-by-step outline of Milei's strategies for overcoming these barriers. Amidst these considerations, there's a real possibility that some voters may come to regret their decision. The opposition from labor unions and worker organizations, such as the Gremios and Sindicatos, is formidable, and could make Milei's presidency an uphill battle.

Adding to these complexities is Milei's commitment to a coalition government, which inherently limits his authoritative power. This arrangement suggests that his presidency won’t be characterized by unilateral decision-making, but rather by negotiation and compromise. I anticipate that Milei might disappoint many of his supporters. Milei's agenda, constrained and perhaps divergent from their expectations, may not suffice to fulfill the promises perceived by those who voted for him. Such a scenario casts doubt on the likelihood of Milei completing his term, As we move forward, it becomes a matter of observing how Milei navigates these very difficult challenges and what the eventual outcomes of his presidency will be.

I'm coming from a very different perspective than you.

Donald Trump was an unmoored novice politician who had an affinity for certain thinks like, "law and order", "border walls, "western civilization", "hard working people" and "capitalism"

He came to DC with a hand extended to make deals and to implement a certain tilt towards a different society.

Milei is a philosophically grounded, highly educated, highly intelligent man deeply steeped in Libertarianism and Austrian Economics. He is not Trump.

He didn't come to make deals. He views himself as the leader of a slave revolt against the master class of society. The good people of Argentina: the hard working, the intelligent, the ethical and the risk takers have been oppressed by these masters for generations.

He has the largest mandate in what...70 years? I expect drastic things to happen.

I will say this: This will either be a 1776 social revolution for human liberty or it will be nothing.

And no thank you. I will not outline my expectations of Milei's step by step strategies.

 

[wrangler]

I'm coming from a very different perspective than you.

Donald Trump was an unmoored novice politician who had an affinity for certain thinks like, "law and order", "border walls, "western civilization", "hard working people" and "capitalism"

He came to DC with a hand extended to make deals and to implement a certain tilt towards a different society.

Milei is a philosophically grounded, highly educated, highly intelligent man deeply steeped in Libertarianism and Austrian Economics. He is not Trump.

He didn't come to make deals. He views himself as the leader of a slave revolt against the master class of society. The good people of Argentina: the hard working, the intelligent, the ethical and the risk takers have been oppressed by these masters for generations.

He has the largest mandate in what...70 years? I expect drastic things to happen.

I will say this: This will either be a 1776 social revolution for human liberty or it will be nothing.

And no thank you. I will not outline my expectations of Milei's step by step strategies.

While I understand your view of Milei as a philosophically grounded leader intent on leading a transformative revolution in Argentina, I have some reservations about the practicality of this approach in a democratic system.

Firstly, even with a strong personal mandate, governing effectively in a democracy requires collaboration and consensus-building, particularly when dealing with institutions like Congress and various social and political groups. History has shown that leaders who attempt to bypass these democratic processes often face significant resistance, not just from political opponents but also from the broader society, including those who may initially support them.

Secondly, the role of labor unions and worker organizations, such as the Gremios and Sindicatos, cannot be understated in Argentine politics. These groups have considerable influence and the ability to mobilize public opinion and action, which can be a significant obstacle to any leader attempting to implement unilateral changes, regardless of their mandate.

The assertion that Milei views himself as leading a "slave revolt against the master class of society" is a powerful metaphor, but it oversimplifies the complex socio-economic dynamics of Argentina. A more nuanced approach that acknowledges and addresses these complexities might be more effective and sustainable.

While the desire for a '1776 social revolution for human liberty' is an ambitious vision, the practicalities of achieving such a revolution in a contemporary democratic context are significantly challenging. It's important to consider the potential consequences of radical changes, not just in terms of immediate outcomes but also in terms of long-term stability and prosperity.

While Milei’s philosophical grounding and intelligence are noteworthy, the effectiveness of his presidency will likely depend on his ability to navigate the intricate realities of Argentina's political landscape, which includes working within existing democratic frameworks and institutions.

 

[Agribotics]

Hello again from Taiwan. As an expat living in a prosperous entrepreneur’s paradise like Taiwan with no natural resources other than its human capital it’s clear that what will make or break Argentina is whether or not it has the capacity for cultural change. Will young Argentinians let go of the Peronomics lie that the key to prosperity is handouts from the government and adopt a whole new mindset? Will the government actually create the ideal conditions for the creation of the goods and services which are key to making Argentinians and Argentina prosperous again? If these two cultural shifts don’t happen nothing the government says or does will make any difference.

 

[PaulBee]

Hello again from Taiwan. As an expat living in a prosperous entrepreneur’s paradise like Taiwan with no natural resources other than its human capital it’s clear that what will make or break Argentina is whether or not it has the capacity for cultural change. Will young Argentinians let go of the Peronomics lie that the key to prosperity is handouts from the government and adopt a whole new mindset? Will the government actually create the ideal conditions for the creation of the goods and services which are key to making Argentinians and Argentina prosperous again? If these two cultural shifts don’t happen nothing the government says or does will make any difference.

The only thing I have heard about that is Milei stating concern that only 6 (?) or 7 million Argentinians work for private enterprise. From my limited
recent experience, I see a very large labout shortage, at least in contrstuction. If the job is too large, they leave without even discussing price. I
hear of people saying they would like to work more days but can´t because of taxes. I hear of others who won´t work because they have a "social plan". It is encouraging that so many young people supported Milei. I am optimistic they want to work and achieve. That would only be a win/win.

 

[Big Swifty]

I think the problem is far far worse than Massa, Cristina, and the President all being awol at the same moment, or even the debt rollover talks coming in, or even the congressional balance that has sort of already doomed Milei's presidency, or the complete dedication of the state employees to foiling and disobeying Milei at every turn.

I think it's also that Milei has gravely underestimated the scale of the problem and is the dog that caught the car. Forget Trump or Bolsonaro, who were incompetent self-servicers that inherited well-performing countries and economies. Milei is a guy way smarter than both, but who has far less power to change things and a far far more catastrophic situation. He may end up following through on his most radical ideas (in fact, I think for sure he will) because there is no other plausible path, everything else has been tried.

Like, the guy is about to become the most hated man in the history of Argentina, while he completely reforms politics, and probably does make Argentina a lot wealthier.

This reminded me of how the other day my wife told me about how our one dog who is discouraged from venturing outside of the property slipped out of the gate, chased a passing car, caught up with the car, and then suddenly and somehow was tossed in the air and landed about 3 or 4 meters from where she caught the car. She was shaken up a bit but okay and hopefully learned a little something from the experience.