Economists warn electing Milei would spell devastation

[Big Swifty]

My issue is that dollarization is gimmicky, if he was serious about structural long term reform he would do things like an independent BCRA, prohibit monetary transfers from the treasury to cover budget shortfalls, implement a positive real interest rate both for loans and savings, etc.

We've talked about how so much of Argentine society thinks there's a shortcut to life, and that's just what dollarization is hoping to accomplish, it's akin to a diabetic blinding themself so they can't see chocolate; yeah, it might work, but wouldn't it be better and less chaotic to actually address on the core issues?



I think this is what motivates 75% of the people that are/will vote for him, they're not true believers/don't care for the anarcho-capitalist schtick, they're just willing to try anything different. That being said, if Milei loses, it won't be because Massa was a better candidate or some grand conspiracy that the 25% of Milei's fellow travelers keep talking about as being perpetuated against him, but rather because Milei will manage to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

All he had to do was be "normal" and not talk about overly polarizing things, something he's learned too late it seems based on the general election results. Massa is one of the worst economy economy ministers in the world, all the socio-economic metrics are negative and would be a cakewalk for any opposition figure, yet it's a coin toss because Milei can't stop talking about dumb shit.

We'll see who wins a week today, but I stand by my prediction that the average Argentine is in for a world of pain.

Well said.

I think it's a toss-up for worst Presidential candidates in modern history: Milei vs Massa or Trump vs Biden. Giant Douche vs Turd Sandwich.

 

[Big Swifty]

Prices would stablise and wages would be higher. It would help the majority, just not those living off a black market exchange rate.

What would cause wages to be higher?

Also what guarantees are there that prices would stabilize?

Businesses are against wage increases because it increases their costs > Cost increases get passed along to consumers = inflation.

 

[Big Swifty]

Latest from a prediction market:

Javier Milei -130

Sergio Massa -110

I believe that just a couple of days ago it was Massa -140, Milei -100, so the race not only tightens, but there's been a slight change in which horse is in front.

 

[sergio]

Also what guarantees are there that prices would stabilize?

Businesses are against wage increases because it increases their costs > Cost increases get passed along to consumers = inflation.

There would obviously be an adjustment period but as with Cavallo's convertability, once implemented prices would settle down. There was almost no inflation during Menem's first term. I don't recall much during the second term for that matter. Anyway I think it's all a moot issue as it looks as though Massa will win so there won't be any attempt to change course. In that case I should think hyperinflation is on the horizon, no?

 

[sergio]

My issue is that dollarization is gimmicky, if he was serious about structural long term reform he would do things like an independent BCRA, prohibit monetary transfers from the treasury to cover budget shortfalls, implement a positive real interest rate both for loans and savings, etc.

We've talked about how so much of Argentine society thinks there's a shortcut to life, and that's just what dollarization is hoping to accomplish, it's akin to a diabetic blinding themself so they can't see chocolate; yeah, it might work, but wouldn't it be better and less chaotic to actually address on the core issues?



I think this is what motivates 75% of the people that are/will vote for him, they're not true believers/don't care for the anarcho-capitalist schtick, they're just willing to try anything different. That being said, if Milei loses, it won't be because Massa was a better candidate or some grand conspiracy that the 25% of Milei's fellow travelers keep talking about as being perpetuated against him, but rather because Milei will manage to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

All he had to do was be "normal" and not talk about overly polarizing things, something he's learned too late it seems based on the general election results. Massa is one of the worst economy economy ministers in the world, all the socio-economic metrics are negative and would be a cakewalk for any opposition figure, yet it's a coin toss because Milei can't stop talking about dumb shit.

We'll see who wins a week today, but I stand by my prediction that the average Argentine is in for a world of pain.

Agreed that Milei's personality has been a serious problem. You are right that all he had to do was to outline the basics of his plan. It's a bit of a two-edged sword, I suspect. His excitable temperament probably attracted some followers whilst turning off others.

 

[antipodean]

All he had to do was be "normal" and not talk about overly polarizing things, something he's learned too late it seems based on the general election results. Massa is one of the worst economy economy ministers in the world, all the socio-economic metrics are negative and would be a cakewalk for any opposition figure, yet it's a coin toss because Milei can't stop talking about dumb shit.

Exactly this.

It would have been great if Milei's platform to date was kept focused on what it actually comes down to: A "free and open" economy boosted with his firey anti-corruption and anti-mismanagement speech of "out with the casta" - frankly speaking that is what most Argentines want and can buy into. That would contrast perfectly against Massa's platform of a "closed and controlled" economy with zero accountability or acknowledgement of his own political party's involvement in very public and apparent corruption along with general social and economic failures while governing the past four years and most of the past two decades.

But instead he and others in his party started mixing complex and lofty long term ambitions (e.g. focusing on all out dolarization versus simply starting with a more palatable bi-monetarism and central bank reform proposals which would in fact be his "short term" actions anyway) with personal opinions on social non-issues (like abortion or sex-ed) which, as libertarians, they would simply not be expected to regulate or interfere with anyway. This results in pissing many would-be voters right off, and confusing everyone else as to what they actually stand for making themselves easy targets of opposition disinformation campaigns.

 

[Reply Guy]

Exactly this.

It would have been great if Milei's platform to date was kept focused on what it actually comes down to: A "free and open" economy boosted with his firey anti-corruption and anti-mismanagement speech of "out with the casta" - frankly speaking that is what most Argentines want and can buy into. That would contrast perfectly against Massa's platform of a "closed and controlled" economy with zero accountability or acknowledgement of his own political party's involvement in very public and apparent corruption along with general social and economic failures while governing the past four years and most of the past two decades.

But instead he and others in his party started mixing complex and lofty long term ambitions (e.g. focusing on all out dolarization versus simply starting with a more palatable bi-monetarism and central bank reform proposals which would in fact be his "short term" actions anyway) with personal opinions on social non-issues (like abortion or sex-ed) which, as libertarians, they would simply not be expected to regulate or interfere with anyway. This results in pissing many would-be voters right off, and confusing everyone else as to what they actually stand for making themselves easy targets of opposition disinformation campaigns.

Agree.

Massa and his team are more polished politicians. They are more disciplined and on message.

There is so much fake news about Milei that people are repeating on here even without evidence. I think part of it, Milei is to blame because he doesn't have a clear simple message. Marcri did and that's how he won in 2015.

For example Arizona Gal said Milei is rabildly anti gay. No one has posted anything to support her claims, but she has said that multiple times for some reason.

Perry said he won't trade with China, Brazil. Milei has said he won't make deals with China like currency swaps or military bases, not that the farmers or any other private business will stop exporting to China.

 

[Big Swifty]

There would obviously be an adjustment period but as with Cavallo's convertability, once implemented prices would settle down. There was almost no inflation during Menem's first term. I don't recall much during the second term for that matter. Anyway I think it's all a moot issue as it looks as though Massa will win so there won't be any attempt to change course. In that case I should think hyperinflation is on the horizon, no?

I think continuing inflation is on the horizon no matter who wins and no matter who wins, this country will still be a mess. Massa has proven his incompetence and whether or no Milei is competent or not, he lacks any structural support necessary to affect the drastic changes he's selling unless he can somehow manage to tear the entire system down in which there will be a period of chaos which will invite an authoritarian style of rule to bring back order.

If Milei loses it won't be because Massa "won." But if he does lose I wonder if it will be (as mentioned above) because of how he presents himself and his message. People here (esp. the young) seem very open to change, and even drastic change. But Milei comes off as being unbalanced. His hair, swinging chainsaws, smashing models of the bank, yelling and screaming like a certain Fuhrer, etc. If he came off as being a more serious person I think serious people would've taken him more seriously. Also as mentioned above, I don't think he did himself any favors when the economy is so bad by diving unnecessarily into social issues. You can't take away a recently won right and expect the women affected to be enthusiastic about your candidacy. For me, I could put up with the clownish persona (politics being the entertainment division of industry), but I can't support someone who leans toward authoritarianism and though it may not be a major issue to many (and a non-issue to a lot of people) I could never support someone who is so anti-science and/or in denial as to call global climate change a "Socialist lie." I just don't see the scientific community as a whole being all that interested in squabbling political theater and more interested in studying the historical data that brought us to where we are today. I forget who mentioned Massa using fear tactics. Politicians describing anything to the left of center (or anything they and their base don't like) as being Socialist/Communist is a pretty big, and effective, fear tactic - painting moderates who are tired of being overcharged by insurance companies and the medical industry and are open to a more effective single payer system as people who want to end private industry and for govt. and labor to take over the means of production.

 

[toongeorges]

All he had to do was be "normal" and not talk about overly polarizing things, something he's learned too late it seems based on the general election results. Massa is one of the worst economy economy ministers in the world, all the socio-economic metrics are negative and would be a cakewalk for any opposition figure, yet it's a coin toss because Milei can't stop talking about dumb shit.

If I were to choose, I think Juan Schiaretti was the most "normal" looking politician, but somehow this does not resonate with Argentines. It seems that part of the problem is that many Argentines prefer someone who says he will fix everything quickly with drastic measures above someone more moderate.

 

[Quilombo]

Well said.

I think it's a toss-up for worst Presidential candidates in modern history: Milei vs Massa or Trump vs Biden. Giant Douche vs Turd Sandwich.

Do you want to be shot or stabbed is the version I've been asking people.

Agreed that Milei's personality has been a serious problem. You are right that all he had to do was to outline the basics of his plan. It's a bit of a two-edged sword, I suspect. His excitable temperament probably attracted some followers whilst turning off others.

I'd love to see the crosstabs on his wackiness; for whom is it a +, and without, how many people wouldn't be interested in him. I suppose it's unknowable, but I think it's true that the "Blow Up the BCRA" rhetoric appeals as much as it repels

Exactly this.

It would have been great if Milei's platform to date was kept focused on what it actually comes down to: A "free and open" economy boosted with his firey anti-corruption and anti-mismanagement speech of "out with the casta" - frankly speaking that is what most Argentines want and can buy into. That would contrast perfectly against Massa's platform of a "closed and controlled" economy with zero accountability or acknowledgement of his own political party's involvement in very public and apparent corruption along with general social and economic failures while governing the past four years and most of the past two decades.

But instead he and others in his party started mixing complex and lofty long term ambitions (e.g. focusing on all out dolarization versus simply starting with a more palatable bi-monetarism and central bank reform proposals which would in fact be his "short term" actions anyway) with personal opinions on social non-issues (like abortion or sex-ed) which, as libertarians, they would simply not be expected to regulate or interfere with anyway. This results in pissing many would-be voters right off, and confusing everyone else as to what they actually stand for making themselves easy targets of opposition disinformation campaigns.

I don't agree with big chunks of Milei's agenda, but if you had to be one of their campaign managers, you'd obviously prefer to be Milei's based on the 40% poverty, 140% inflation, and dollar at $1,000, yet they managed to make all these factors moot. Instead of talking about abortion, respond saying Massa is Alberto's second term. Instead of saying the sale of organs is "just another market", you ask why despite huge increases in taxes, there are no supplies or beds in public hospitals. When you're asked about sex education, you bring up the fact that AMBA is governed by Ks and child poverty is 2 in 3 and that your priority is to ensure the kids already born have 3 meals a day.

Milei should be winning 70-30, but he couldn't help himself, he was his own worst enemy, and all Massa had to do was call him crazy, and it worked.

If I were to choose, I think Juan Schiaretti was the most "normal" looking politician, but somehow this does not resonate with Argentines. It seems that part of the problem is that many Argentines prefer someone who says he will fix everything quickly with drastic measures above someone more moderate.

Argentina is very much like Wimpy: I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today and anyone who says, "No, you have to pay today" is going to be met with a dismissing glance if not outright contempt. Schiaretti strikes me as a competent, old hand, and that's just not sexy I suppose. You'd think anyone but Massa would have a chance, yet here we are, Stockholm Syndrome on a national scale.