Economists warn electing Milei would spell devastation

[wrangler]

Milei wants to borrow $40 billion to dollarize here, but what happens when those dollars evaporate, as they often do here? We would be in debt for $90 billion. Milei seems to be in love with the IMF, as he has said on several occasions that his plan will meet and even exceed the IMF's requirements for borrowing. His strategy seems to be to borrow, borrow, and then borrow some more. The likely scenario is that he would have to implement austerity measures, which would not be well-received by the populace.

Milei said, "Give me 10 years, and I will turn Argentina into Italy. Give me 15 years, and I will turn Argentina into France. Give me 30 years, and I will make us like Germany. Give me 40 years, and I will turn us into the United States." Has anyone bothered to tell him that Germany's economy is struggling and on the verge of collapse? Has anyone told him that Italy is the most indebted country in Europe? Has anyone informed him that Americans have less disposable income than in the last 50 years, with 65% living paycheck to paycheck, and that American credit card debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history? Is this the model Milei wants us to follow?

Milei has also said he wants to strengthen the military here and arm the populace. When I think of the military in Argentina, I recall 1976-1983. The idea of arming the populace worries me; we might turn into the U.S., where frequent incidents involve someone buying a weapon and shooting up a place. Milei wants to build up the military, gaining their support, and using them as leverage to dismantle unions, trade organizations, courts, and other government bodies, much like Bukele has done in El Salvador. Milei has all the markings of a totalitarian in the making.

 

[elhombresinnombre]

How Argentina’s hyperinflation could clinch election for far-right Milei

Anarcho-capitalist candidate’s unorthodox proposals have appealed to voters in a country where inflation is out of control

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jimbob]

Milei wants to borrow $40 billion to dollarize here, but what happens when those dollars evaporate, as they often do here? We would be in debt for $90 billion. Milei seems to be in love with the IMF, as he has said on several occasions that his plan will meet and even exceed the IMF's requirements for borrowing. His strategy seems to be to borrow, borrow, and then borrow some more. The likely scenario is that he would have to implement austerity measures, which would not be well-received by the populace.

Milei said, "Give me 10 years, and I will turn Argentina into Italy. Give me 15 years, and I will turn Argentina into France. Give me 30 years, and I will make us like Germany. Give me 40 years, and I will turn us into the United States." Has anyone bothered to tell him that Germany's economy is struggling and on the verge of collapse? Has anyone told him that Italy is the most indebted country in Europe? Has anyone informed him that Americans have less disposable income than in the last 50 years, with 65% living paycheck to paycheck, and that American credit card debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history? Is this the model Milei wants us to follow?

Milei has also said he wants to strengthen the military here and arm the populace. When I think of the military in Argentina, I recall 1976-1983. The idea of arming the populace worries me; we might turn into the U.S., where frequent incidents involve someone buying a weapon and shooting up a place. Milei wants to build up the military, gaining their support, and using them as leverage to dismantle unions, trade organizations, courts, and other government bodies, much like Bukele has done in El Salvador. Milei has all the markings of a totalitarian in the making.

Greece is the most indebted country in Europe, Germany is not on the brink of collapse and Argentina could only dream of having the resources to combat what Germany is facing currently. Thats just from my knowledge and I'm sure if I fact checked the rest of what you said I'd find most of it was the same.

 

[wrangler]

Greece is the most indebted country in Europe, Germany is not on the brink of collapse and Argentina could only dream of having the resources to combat what Germany is facing currently. Thats just from my knowledge and I'm sure if I fact checked the rest of what you said I'd find most of it was the same.

O.K, but Italy is not far behind at all. and in regards to Germany they are going through a lot of troubles. Tell us what tools they Have? Go ahead fact check me.

Exclusive: German government expects economy to shrink 0.4% in 2023

Germany's government expects the economy to shrink by 0.4% this year due to high inflation, high energy prices and weak international trade, government sources told Reuters on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Reply Guy]

Milei wants to borrow $40 billion to dollarize here, but what happens when those dollars evaporate, as they often do here? We would be in debt for $90 billion. Milei seems to be in love with the IMF, as he has said on several occasions that his plan will meet and even exceed the IMF's requirements for borrowing. His strategy seems to be to borrow, borrow, and then borrow some more. The likely scenario is that he would have to implement austerity measures, which would not be well-received by the populace.

Milei said, "Give me 10 years, and I will turn Argentina into Italy. Give me 15 years, and I will turn Argentina into France. Give me 30 years, and I will make us like Germany. Give me 40 years, and I will turn us into the United States." Has anyone bothered to tell him that Germany's economy is struggling and on the verge of collapse? Has anyone told him that Italy is the most indebted country in Europe? Has anyone informed him that Americans have less disposable income than in the last 50 years, with 65% living paycheck to paycheck, and that American credit card debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history? Is this the model Milei wants us to follow?

Milei has also said he wants to strengthen the military here and arm the populace. When I think of the military in Argentina, I recall 1976-1983. The idea of arming the populace worries me; we might turn into the U.S., where frequent incidents involve someone buying a weapon and shooting up a place. Milei wants to build up the military, gaining their support, and using them as leverage to dismantle unions, trade organizations, courts, and other government bodies, much like Bukele has done in El Salvador. Milei has all the markings of a totalitarian in the making.

The Massa + K plan has proven to be a failure. We are living it. 50% of the population is impoverished. The young and middle class are fleeing to Europe. We know what electing Massa brings us.

With Milei you're using a bunch of hypotheticals because we don't know. For example, will the dollars evaporate? Well with the peso, dollars do evaporate because people exchange their peso to the dollar which evaporates it from the central bank. If there is no peso then there is no exchange pressure, but capital flight is still a potential danger.

We don't know how it will work out economically. You bring up France, Germany, and the US. Yes those countries have their issues but economically there are much better off than Argentina. That's a fact.

Milei wants to build up the military to dismantle courts? Where are you getting this information?

 

[gringoexpress]

Milei wants to borrow $40 billion to dollarize here, but what happens when those dollars evaporate, as they often do here? We would be in debt for $90 billion. Milei seems to be in love with the IMF, as he has said on several occasions that his plan will meet and even exceed the IMF's requirements for borrowing. His strategy seems to be to borrow, borrow, and then borrow some more. The likely scenario is that he would have to implement austerity measures, which would not be well-received by the populace.

Milei said, "Give me 10 years, and I will turn Argentina into Italy. Give me 15 years, and I will turn Argentina into France. Give me 30 years, and I will make us like Germany. Give me 40 years, and I will turn us into the United States." Has anyone bothered to tell him that Germany's economy is struggling and on the verge of collapse? Has anyone told him that Italy is the most indebted country in Europe? Has anyone informed him that Americans have less disposable income than in the last 50 years, with 65% living paycheck to paycheck, and that American credit card debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history? Is this the model Milei wants us to follow?

Milei has also said he wants to strengthen the military here and arm the populace. When I think of the military in Argentina, I recall 1976-1983. The idea of arming the populace worries me; we might turn into the U.S., where frequent incidents involve someone buying a weapon and shooting up a place. Milei wants to build up the military, gaining their support, and using them as leverage to dismantle unions, trade organizations, courts, and other government bodies, much like Bukele has done in El Salvador. Milei has all the markings of a totalitarian in the making.

Have you ever talked to a Salvadorian? They love the president. Kids used to not be able to leave the house after school unless they joined a gang, they had to go home and watch TV until Bukeyle launched a network of secure after school centers where they could go hang out with other kids. There was the death penalty for crossing the street and shopping in another gang's territory. A friend of mine was able to take his daughter 30km to the beach for the first time without having to worry about either of them getting raped or killed for leaving their neighborhood without permission. God help us that Millei gets elected and is half the president Bukeyle is, Argentina would be paradise.

Also, the media in the US glosses over the fact that the people doing the shootings are usually people who are mentally ill or felons and aren't legally allowed to have the gun in the first place. An armed populace would make things like home invasions stop.

 

[wrangler]

Have you ever talked to a Salvadorian? They love the president. Kids used to not be able to leave the house after school unless they joined a gang, they had to go home and watch TV until Bukeyle launched a network of secure after school centers where they could go hang out with other kids. There was the death penalty for crossing the street and shopping in another gang's territory. A friend of mine was able to take his daughter 30km to the beach for the first time without having to worry about either of them getting raped or killed for leaving their neighborhood without permission. God help us that Millei gets elected and is half the president Bukeyle is, Argentina would be paradise.

Also, the media in the US glosses over the fact that the people doing the shootings are usually people who are mentally ill or felons and aren't legally allowed to have the gun in the first place. An armed populace would make things like home invasions stop.

Yes, true, but Bukele has also undermined a lot of democratic principles. The vast majority of people who commit these crimes in the U.S., entering into an entity and shooting, particularly with AR-15 purchased them legally. That's a fact. In regards to gun permits, I am not against gun ownership. Here in Argentina for those that qualify. People can have a gun at home to protect themselves. I would prefer that the license to carry a loaded gun on the streets remain elusive, and that's what I was referring to, unlike in the U.S.

 

[wrangler]

The Massa + K plan has proven to be a failure. We are living it. 50% of the population is impoverished. The young and middle class are fleeing to Europe. We know what electing Massa brings us.

With Milei you're using a bunch of hypotheticals because we don't know. For example, will the dollars evaporate? Well with the peso, dollars do evaporate because people exchange their peso to the dollar which evaporates it from the central bank. If there is no peso then there is no exchange pressure, but capital flight is still a potential danger.

We don't know how it will work out economically. You bring up France, Germany, and the US. Yes those countries have their issues but economically there are much better off than Argentina. That's a fact.

Milei wants to build up the military to dismantle courts? Where are you getting this information?

Are you aware of the title of this thread, "Economists warn electing Milei would spell devastation"? Dollars in Argentina tend to gravitate towards a few hands, the most affluent and well-off, and I don't see that changing. If you have been following my posts, you'll know I listed many reasons why it's not a good idea to dollarize the Argentine economy. I respectfully disagree that any of those European countries are models for Argentina to follow. How about we fix things here to add value to the Argentine Peso, instead of adopting another currency over which we will have no control?

 

[antipodean]

How about we fix things here to add value to the Argentine Peso, instead of adopting another currency over which we will have no control?

How are you going to add value to the peso with a closed economy that only exports about as much as the Philippines or Portugal and that locals simply don’t have confidence in?

By holding a gun to people’s head by telling them that it is worth X or Y while essentially forbidding them to conduct their business with any other currency which may be valued more by those doing the business?

 

[Reply Guy]

Are you aware of the title of this thread, "Economists warn electing Milei would spell devastation"? Dollars in Argentina tend to gravitate towards a few hands, the most affluent and well-off, and I don't see that changing. If you have been following my posts, you'll know I listed many reasons why it's not a good idea to dollarize the Argentine economy. I respectfully disagree that any of those European countries are models for Argentina to follow. How about we fix things here to add value to the Argentine Peso, instead of adopting another currency over which we will have no control?

Again, you said that Milei wants to build up the military to dismantle courts? Where are you getting this information? That would be an immediate disqualifier for me.

I'm aware of the title of this thread. My undergraduate and graduate degree is in economics and I worked as a trader at a bank for 6 years. I can tell you with certainty that economists can't predict the future. It's an imperfect "science" with way too many variables, unknowns, and faulty assumptions to make accurate predictions. We can plug our numbers in our fancy models that have a high r^2 score and tell you how they explain all the variability, but our own biases affect the results.

By any economic metric Argentina is already devastated. If electing Milei would spell even more devastation that is up for debate, but you could easily find 100 economists to say the opposite. Piketty is a famous left wing economist. Clearly he's not going to like Milei's ideas.

Dollars in Argentina tend to gravitate towards a few hands, the most affluent and well-off, and I don't see that changing.

Dollars, pesos, land, gold, anything of value tends to gravitate towards a few hands, it's not just dollars. Will that change if Milei or Massa is elected? No.

How about we fix things here to add value to the Argentine Peso, instead of adopting another currency over which we will have no control?

I agree that the ideal circumstance is keeping the peso and adding value to it. Problem is this hasn't happened over the past 20 years and way before that, so why would it happen now?

I don't know if dollarization is the right path forward, but Massa and the Ks have proven that they can't add value to the peso only devalue it.

This is why I'm not hot on Massa. He's a proven failure and in bed with organized crime.