Effects Of A Default On Expats

The United States are so evil,evil,evil.
The United Kingdom is so evil,evil,evil.
The Soviet Union Russia is so nice, nice, nice.
China is so nice, nice, nice.
The naive is so gullible, gullible, gullible.
 
The United States are so evil,evil,evil.
The United Kingdom is so evil,evil,evil.
The Soviet Union Russia is so nice, nice, nice.
China is so nice, nice, nice.
The naive is so gullible, gullible, gullible.

Tautologies are tautological.
 
Are the Chinos of Bs As considered expats too? Or are they seen with the rest of other genres such as the Bolivian,Paraguayan,Peruvian, etc.etc.?....Whilst in Chile, people called me, ah sos un Gringo Japones but when I
asked them how about the Chinos,Koreanos but they said No, they are not Gringos but Chinos...?
 
Are the Chinos of Bs As considered expats too? Or are they seen with the rest of other genres such as the Bolivian,Paraguayan,Peruvian, etc.etc.?....Whilst in Chile, people called me, ah sos un Gringo Japones but when I
asked them how about the Chinos,Koreanos but they said No, they are not Gringos but Chinos...?


Chinos are chinos
Gringos are gringos
Paraguayan and Peruvian and Bolivian are Paraguayans and Peruvians and Bolivians

I would say that in the social scale the gringos and europeans are the most liked. And so the Australian, New Zeaand, etc, and I would also say that, since most of them are middle class with some savings, Chinos are more liked than the ones from bording countries (except Chile and Uruguay). Basically, they are not so poor. There used to be great immigration from Japan, years ago it was very common to find them as dry cleaners, in fact there was a musician group called Los Tintoreros, and they were all japanese or sons of japanese. I had in high school several class mates from Korea (south Korea), they were like 15 in my class, of a total of 40. They all lived near Flores, in what is known as Korea Town.
 
Am I thinking too strange to wonder if Russia's and China's recent announcements related to Cuba and South America (particularly Argentina) is part of some kind of backdoor deal with Cristina to provide relief related to the holdouts and Griesa and all? The US's biggest upcoming rivals playing around in its backyard, making deals that no one else will, showing up Obama's statesmanship, etc? All this with little cost to them (who knows how long it will take or what kind of real benefit might come out of BRIC and the bank in the end - just words right now) to maybe cause the US government to pressure Griesa to make some kind of decision that could help Argentina?

I am not fond of this government and I do not know what the government might be thinking. It seems to me that there are no backdoor deals here. Argentina culture does not have a strong influence from Russia or China, this is is a matter of interests only. Argentina might default during a period of 8 months, or may be more. China needs the soybean, Argentina needs to increase its reserve, as simple as this. It does not seem to me that this is something against Obama; Obama cannot influence over Griesa, and Griesa needs to apply the law accordingly, vulture funds are just taking advantage of a loophole. Russia seems to be just a contingency plan only IMHO. The soybean that is exported to China might not fulfill the Chinese demand, but for sure it is a valuable commodity for China, and lending money to Argentina is not a big effort for a country with a 1.5 billion population (Argentina population is just 40 million). All the meetings took place during the conflicts with the vulture funds and not before. I guess this government and other political parties might be thinking that the negotiation is not necessarily a solution for the Argentinean financial problems; the debt is always increasing even when Argentina pays off. I believe this attitude responds more to a necessity than bragging the US that Argentina has alleys; many things were done wrongly in the past, and the past cannot be changed. This moribund government just sees China as a crutch to lean on, nothing else IMHO. It is a very complicated scenario, somehow these matters will affect everyone to some extent and anything can happen in the middle.
 
I got lost on page 6 or 7 with the back and forth on this thread, but I think lacoqueta asks a good question about daily lives of expats in a default situation, and I will mention my experience, since we started coming to Argentina (part time at that point) in January 2001. Obviously, many people have mentioned the economic and governmental aspects, and what that means for savings, jobs and the economic future of all. But I think the social impact in 2001 was just as devastating and demoralizing. With the corralito, people couldn't even get their hands on their own money, and it was converted to pesos against their will, losing huge value. The stores were empty, the cab drivers were even more morose than usual, and there were constant protests in the street, some with fatal consequences. Everyone was depressed and freaked out and angry. The streets were (even more) full of trash with (even more) graffiti everywhere. The street and highway blockages were totally out of control.
Sorry to be so bleak, but that's how I remember it. I can't imagine anyone wants another default, even if their precious dollars become even more valuable. The repercussions aren't just about a stronger greenback. It was ugly and sad. Hard to believe it could happen again.
 
I got lost on page 6 or 7 with the back and forth on this thread, but I think lacoqueta asks a good question about daily lives of expats in a default situation, and I will mention my experience, since we started coming to Argentina (part time at that point) in January 2001. Obviously, many people have mentioned the economic and governmental aspects, and what that means for savings, jobs and the economic future of all. But I think the social impact in 2001 was just as devastating and demoralizing. With the corralito, people couldn't even get their hands on their own money, and it was converted to pesos against their will, losing huge value. The stores were empty, the cab drivers were even more morose than usual, and there were constant protests in the street, some with fatal consequences. Everyone was depressed and freaked out and angry. The streets were (even more) full of trash with (even more) graffiti everywhere. The street and highway blockages were totally out of control.
Sorry to be so bleak, but that's how I remember it. I can't imagine anyone wants another default, even if their precious dollars become even more valuable. The repercussions aren't just about a stronger greenback. It was ugly and sad. Hard to believe it could happen again.

Its not something that depends on the will, its not a matter of if they want or not. Of course I assume that everyone here wants the best to this country, no doubt about that, its just like possessing dollars automatically makes ourselves as tiny speculators, we are just little agents playing on the same side that the important capitals that are for a default. Of course, apart from what people say, are the facts, the practices, and just buying dollars, having dollars, puts us, wanted or not, in the side against Argentina.

About what you say, trash in the streets and more protests, that was just the face of huge social problems; when I talk of expanding the internal market and the recovery of the economy, the 6% of unemployment and huge social planning by this government, I mean this. We have to remember where we come from.

I remember in 2001 more than 75% of the negocios were closed with the "se alquila" sign, I remember lesser people in the streets, at least till neighbouring assemblies began, that crisis had a lot of political participation, lots of protests. I remember almost nothing of traffic, almost no cars, I remember a lot more of people begging, much more insecure, more dirty, as you said... nights was very hard to be on the streets...

It was not only a default, though. There were a lot of things accumulated in that crisis. It was the end of an era, of a political and economical plan, of only one way to understand politics. It was a huge change. I would bet that the next president will have more continuities with this government in lots of aspects, than a 180° change like it was in 2001.
 
La Coqueta

To answer your question, from my perspective, a default will have no major negative impact on Argentina. To the contrary, it may work out very well because after the dust settles, there will be a new swap and no chance of any vultures left. Life will become more normal than now, with far less uncertainty.

No impact because the Argentina government hardly borrows in the international markets now; there is little credit for regular people and so a default won't change things. The key will be the speed with which a new swap is proposed and accepted. The new offer should eliminate the damming RUFO clause, so it will remove future uncertainty.

In sum, no catastrophe because of a default, and quite possibly, lots of benefits. We all understand that a potential default now is not being caused by the inability to pay the existing bondholders that accepted the swap, but rather being forced by a few "vultures" who don't want to accept the conditions that others were forced to accept. Thus, a new default will even things out.

Finally, don't forget that Cristina and her husband were early vultures too, so she understand the game very well. How do you think they amassed their earlier fortune when they bought bank owned homes?

I hope my message brings peace of mind to you!
 
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