Effects Of A Default On Expats

[Jaredberryman]

Actually, Frenchie, it's a shame, but the average U.S. citizen does not know what the IMF is or how these rich greedy people have been causing global financial chaos by trying to get more money and power from the third world. I talk to people back home about this stuff and they have never even heard of the IMF or the know about vulture funds. It would be smart of Argentina to run a big propaganda campaign and pay CNN and Fox News to run specials on Argentina's situation, as to get people riled up. If you get the right people upset, I guarantee you that someone gets upset and writes to the right Senator and the problem gets looked at. Unfortunately, the typical person in the U.S. just does not have Argentina on the radar and it seems like a country that is completely unrelated (which is true in many ways), also somewhat the current government's fault in not being proactive about forming good relations. But of course, that would require some level of competence and political know-how, which we all know are lacking right now at present among the current leaders.

I think we can expect a devaluation at this point, if not this year, then when Cristina leaves. How much of a devaluation? Probably a big one. Hard to predict it, but I don't think it will be a 300 percent devaluation like in 2001 (from 1 to 1 to 3 to 1. Hopefully it will help Argentina to pay all its debt and then get things in order, but I doubt many of us believe that will actually happen.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Actually, Frenchie, it's a shame, but the average U.S. citizen does not know what the IMF is or how these rich greedy people have been causing global financial chaos by trying to get more money and power from the third world. I talk to people back home about this stuff and they have never even heard of the IMF or the know about vulture funds. It would be smart of Argentina to run a big propaganda campaign and pay CNN and Fox News to run specials on Argentina's situation, as to get people riled up. If you get the right people upset, I guarantee you that someone gets upset and writes to the right Senator and the problem gets looked at. Unfortunately, the typical person in the U.S. just does not have Argentina on the radar and it seems like a country that is completely unrelated (which is true in many ways), also somewhat the current government's fault in not being proactive about forming good relations. But of course, that would require some level of competence and political know-how, which we all know are lacking right now at present among the current leaders.

CNN and Faux News are not the TV Pública, so Argentina can't pay or order them to run its propaganda (though Faux is a fully funded subsidiary of wingnut Republicans).

It is true, however, that most US residents couldn't care less about Argentina. That's true, unfortunately, even with the current administration, which has pretty much ignored Latin America.

 

[Rich One]

Judge Griesa denied the Stay and asked for negotiations with the Holdouts. 15:00 Tue. 22

dollar $12.43

 

[Don Alberto]

Judge Griesa denied the Stay and asked for negotiations with the Holdouts. 15:00 Tue. 22

dollar $12.43

Judge Griesa denied the Stay in 2012, and he did not write it in a secret ruling, so the Argentine government has known that for two years.

 

[ghost]

Judge Griesa denied the Stay and asked for negotiations with the Holdouts. 15:00 Tue. 22

dollar $12.43

As I said before Griesa wants some show of "good intentions".... to negotiate a deal between parties. He keeps throwing out the bone and the two idiots keep whipping out their lawyers and pissing in the snow.

 

[Don Alberto]

That'll teach them not to make judge Griesa angry

The City of Buenos Aires is being hit by heavy rains and lightning storms since today’s early morning, expected to last till the evening.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

As I said before Griesa wants some show of "good intentions".... to negotiate a deal between parties. He keeps throwing out the bone and the two idiots keep whipping out their lawyers and pissing in the snow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSY2uPuLi-U

 

[Don Alberto]

It is quite ironic that any disagreement in connexion with the 11 billion dollars swap system offered by China are to be dealt with, in the first instance, by the London courts, and in second instance it will be under the authority of the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris.

Whatever happened to all the blabbering about foreign jurisdiction?

 

[French jurist]

At the same time, it's really true that Argentina can't legally offer any payment above what has been proposed to the restructured debt bondholders, even if Griesa orders it (would not guarantee that the RUFO clause won't apply, would be a new legal case), and CFK can't (politically) offer a real good deal to the Vultures (opinions aside).

As it is, it will be some kind of technical default, while Argentina pretending the country paid (Vultures must be really loaded in CDS to wish so much a default btw), with 60 more days for a global default.

Ironically, there's something to be said about the fact Griesa took hostage bondholders from other jurisdictions (one more unusual decision): sounds like this will be an advantage for Argentina.
There was something similar (Legislative this time) back in 1996 with the Helms-Burton & D'Amato-Kennedy Acts: will to make US legislation applicable worldwide (while violating Treaties and such btw).
The EU reaction was this one (possibility to seize US private assets) - http://europa.eu/leg...l/l24400_en.htm

Here, the EU is again threatened by the US will for extra-territoriality. The EU won't appreciate Argentine bondholders suing Euroclear because a NY judge went too far. And the EU will appreciate even less that the 9.7 billion agreement (Club de Paris) gets threatened because of that, etc.). So the US will have to face Argentina (a dwarf) but also the EU (1st financial power now...).

Anyway, Griesa's ruling cannot be really enforced and even if it is somehow, Argentina will of course use its Sovereign right to retaliate, seizing US private assets (a bit in the spirit of the EU regulation above). Sending armoured boats to claim a debt used to be done a century ago, world has changed since.

That's really an incredible story, issue is Argentine lives are at stakes.

 

[French jurist]

It is quite ironic that any disagreement in connexion with the 11 billion dollars swap system offered by China are to be dealt with, in the first instance, by the London courts, and in second instance it will be under the authority of the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris.

Whatever happened to all the blabbering about foreign jurisdiction?

If you intended to prove that the US offer now a legal framework less secure for Sovereign financing than London or Paris, you are right on spot.

Ironic maybe, illegal not (Griesa's decision about bonds outside his jurisdiction is illegal = there was a similar case years ago between Nicaragua & NML = NML of course lost).