French jurist
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I find these debates interesting but tend to stay out of them so as not to expose my woeful ignorance of the situation. However, after reading the news this morning (Argentina says solution impossible by end of the moneth unless a stay is put in place, judge refuses to put stay in place blah blah), am I right in thinking that it is now highly likely that Argentina will indeed default?
To be honest, I think we all are ignorant of the situation, we can only guess.
IMHO, the only sure thing is that Argentina won't go backwards now, the country asked for more time (whether it's elusive or not is not relevant here: CFK needs to come out of this sounding as victorious because of the 2015 elections, the "No Pasaran", etc.).
I guess the Vultures would lose somehow the hand (to some extent) if the situation is not solved by the end of the month.
The only solutions I can think of (for what it's worth):
- Vultures waiting for the last moment to ask for the stay to be put back in place (with a speech like "We give Argentina a last chance to prove our good will! Bla bla") until 12/31/2014 then Argentina won't be able to invoke the RUFO clause. On Argentina's side, CFK will have bought 5 more months, the next elections won't be too far then no idea what will happen (but likely it will be the same fight going on: Vultures trying to embargo Sovereign assets, etc.).
A rather original solution: a Third party repaying somehow the Vultures & granting a loan to Argentina (sounds crazy but this saga is crazy anyway)