Effects Of A Default On Expats

[French jurist]

I find these debates interesting but tend to stay out of them so as not to expose my woeful ignorance of the situation. However, after reading the news this morning (Argentina says solution impossible by end of the moneth unless a stay is put in place, judge refuses to put stay in place blah blah), am I right in thinking that it is now highly likely that Argentina will indeed default?

To be honest, I think we all are ignorant of the situation, we can only guess.

IMHO, the only sure thing is that Argentina won't go backwards now, the country asked for more time (whether it's elusive or not is not relevant here: CFK needs to come out of this sounding as victorious because of the 2015 elections, the "No Pasaran", etc.).

I guess the Vultures would lose somehow the hand (to some extent) if the situation is not solved by the end of the month.

The only solutions I can think of (for what it's worth):
- Vultures waiting for the last moment to ask for the stay to be put back in place (with a speech like "We give Argentina a last chance to prove our good will! Bla bla") until 12/31/2014 then Argentina won't be able to invoke the RUFO clause. On Argentina's side, CFK will have bought 5 more months, the next elections won't be too far then no idea what will happen (but likely it will be the same fight going on: Vultures trying to embargo Sovereign assets, etc.).

A rather original solution: a Third party repaying somehow the Vultures & granting a loan to Argentina (sounds crazy but this saga is crazy anyway)

 

[French jurist]

And let's not forget the political aspect on the Vultures sides too: they are in line with the neocons & such. They kept attacking Argentina on political issues as well & likely wish Macri to get elected (he's in favour of a payment to the Vultures... lobbying here too it seems).
If Argentina defaults at the end of the month, it will be more difficult for them to get money compared to waiting until the elections & hope for Macri (or similar) to get elected (then they could easily get repaid and Argentina would have to sell assets like YPF they could buy at a vile price = exact same thing has happened in the past for YPF when the company was forced to borrow in USD during the dictature while it didn't need the money, etc.).

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

And let's not forget the political aspect on the Vultures sides too: they are in line with the neocons & such. They kept attacking Argentina on political issues as well & likely wish Macri to get elected (he's in favour of a payment to the Vultures... lobbying here too it seems).
If Argentina defaults at the end of the month, it will be more difficult for them to get money compared to waiting until the elections & hope for Macri (or similar) to get elected (then they could easily get repaid and Argentina would have to sell assets like YPF they could buy at a vile price = exact same thing has happened in the past for YPF when the company was forced to borrow in USD during the dictature while it didn't need the money, etc.).

True.

MO of these companies is buying distressed assets. The play the long game. If they can legally cause "distress" and create opportunity to access more assets, they will.

It would be counter productive for them to let a target off the hook.

 

[TWB103]

Churchill, I agree.

Im grateful I found this site and that there are people here willing to discuss and share ideas with little antagonism nor insults. Thanks to this site and the posters I can learn something of the highly complex situation to at least get an overall picture of what the hell is going on.I have no fingertips left let lone nails! A number of you guys must have professional legal or financial backgrounds right? Compare this site with the sadomasochistic fightclub that is Mercopress..

 

[AmigoArtistico]

A number of you guys must have professional legal or financial backgrounds right?

An extremely dubious assumption.

 

[French jurist]

A number of you guys must have professional legal or financial backgrounds right?

In trolling likely

 

[AmigoArtistico]

In trolling likely

We definitely have too much time on our hands.

 

[Don Alberto]

Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich insisted once again on Argentina’s willingness to negotiate.

The Argentine delegation did not show up to the scheduled hearing today, Wednesday.

According to Mr. Pollack, Argentina’s defence could not make it in time.

Willing to negotiate?

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

I'm showcasing my talents to be hired as a foreign cyber troll for the Campora, Macri's new model army or Massa's champagne peronistas. I don't mind who. I just want to be paid to blather.

 

[Don Alberto]

Argentine politicians protesting Federal Judge Griesa's ruling

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6XZ-0ns2yA