Effects Of A Default On Expats

[jw]

So because I haven't lived here long enough to know from experience, and because I never studied economics in college, can this forum enlighten me and other similarly ignorant forum members, on how a default here will actually impact us in our daily lives? I don't want to let my anxiety get too far ahead of reality!

in the short term it will hurt the peso (good for those who hold dollars). In the longer term it will be very good for the peso... because, as K clearly stated, there is no way they are going to pay off a debt with criminal interest rates when they can invest that money in rebuilding the infrastructure (which Menem, Cavallo, et al, dismanted in the 90's). AR has not (since the crash) borrowed a single penny from outside the country, and they are still able the pay their creditors (well, 93% of them) for debts they did not incur... this means that AR is actually able to survive on it's own! As the infrastructure gets repaired, the economy willl improve, and with it the peso.

People who move their pesos into dollars are contribuiting to the inflation.... and ironically, they are the ones that are screaming and banging pots. I am very sorry that they can not vacation in Puente del Este or Miami this year. I truly hope they can surive the hardship.

 

[scotttswan]

in the short term it will hurt the peso (good for those who hold dollars). In the longer term it will be very good for the peso... because, as K clearly stated, there is no way they are going to pay off a debt with criminal interest rates when they can invest that money in rebuilding the infrastructure (which Menem, Cavallo, et al, dismanted in the 90's). AR has not (since the crash) borrowed a single penny from outside the country, and they are still able the pay their creditors (well, 93% of them) for debts they did not incur... this means that AR is actually able to survive on it's own! As the infrastructure gets repaired, the economy willl improve, and with it the peso.

People who move their pesos into dollars are contribuiting to the inflation.... and ironically, they are the ones that are screaming and banging pots. I am very sorry that they can not vacation in Puente del Este or Miami this year. I truly hope they can surive the hardship.

can i suggest

as a profile picture for you?

:lol:

 

[scotttswan]

Hi,

Your source? Shall I take the word of the President of Banco Provincia or the word of a vulture expat?

hmmmm...

Cheers!

I'm a vulture because i'm an expat? :huh:

 

[ajoknoblauch]

didnt know that. In any case, the size of the blue dollar market is very tiny compared to the official...

Matías has become the blue dollar counterpart of global warming deniers.

 

[ben]

in the short term it will hurt the peso (good for those who hold dollars). In the longer term it will be very good for the peso... because, as K clearly stated, there is no way they are going to pay off a debt with criminal interest rates when they can invest that money in rebuilding the infrastructure (which Menem, Cavallo, et al, dismanted in the 90's). AR has not (since the crash) borrowed a single penny from outside the country, and they are still able the pay their creditors (well, 93% of them) for debts they did not incur... this means that AR is actually able to survive on it's own! As the infrastructure gets repaired, the economy willl improve, and with it the peso.

People who move their pesos into dollars are contribuiting to the inflation.... and ironically, they are the ones that are screaming and banging pots. I am very sorry that they can not vacation in Puente del Este or Miami this year. I truly hope they can surive the hardship.

Correct... with old boring ways of raising capital (aka debt) unavailable, the AR gov't has shown it can stand on its own with its native ingenuity (Spanish translation anyone?).

Said ingenuity manifested itself in raiding the pension funds, the central bank reserves, nationalizing YPF (even after deal with Repsol still a good deal), I'm sure I missed some. Clearly, these steps all show that the peso has a great long term future - if only we can do something about those scammy/scummy dollar-saving pot-bangerz.

 

[Don Alberto]

Blue is big business young man, maybe listen once in awhile and you may learn something.

Last week blue $ volume was at its lowest in history, less than $4 million. High end, $50 million a day is exchanged.

http://www.cronista....40730-0040.html

Any suggestions to how to get reliable (±50 percent) data?

Do the 38 or 52 or 67 cuevas in Córdoba (nobody knows how many there are) call the Blue Dollar Central Bank in Buenos Aires and report today's turnover?

What about those in Salta, Neuquen, Tucumán, Rosario, Corrientes and Santa Fe, how many are there, and do they call in?

I know 6 cuevas in Mendoza. There may be two more or twice as many or eight times as many.

Nobody - and by that I mean nobody - knows how many cuevas there are in Argentina, and nobody - and by that I mean nobody - knows the turnover.

What proportion of the 270 million dollars bought at the official rate last month was resold in how many cuevas where?

The volume of Blue business is known only with considerable uncertainty young man, maybe listen once in awhile and you may learn something

 

[dennisr]

Real piece of work

 

[Gringoboy]

in the short term it will hurt the peso (good for those who hold dollars). In the longer term it will be very good for the peso... because, as K clearly stated, there is no way they are going to pay off a debt with criminal interest rates when they can invest that money in rebuilding the infrastructure (which Menem, Cavallo, et al, dismanted in the 90's). AR has not (since the crash) borrowed a single penny from outside the country, and they are still able the pay their creditors (well, 93% of them) for debts they did not incur... this means that AR is actually able to survive on it's own! As the infrastructure gets repaired, the economy willl improve, and with it the peso.

People who move their pesos into dollars are contribuiting to the inflation.... and ironically, they are the ones that are screaming and banging pots. I am very sorry that they can not vacation in Puente del Este or Miami this year. I truly hope they can surive the hardship.

What is it with some people?
Criticising those who want a holiday abroad just doesn't cut it and the smart people keep dollars as opposed to toilet paper.
You paint a fairy tale land of recovery JW, by a regime that hasn't a clue about the infrastructure of this country.

 

[ghost]

In the long run Argentina is far better off being shut out of the international capital markets. History shows that borrowed funds never go to infrastructure. They go directly to the private accounts of the Political Vultures in the Casa of Pinkness.

 

[Hybrid Ambassador]

Why does Don Alberto keep changing his/her avatar often?