If anyone wants to understand why Argentina is in hot water again $$$..

[ben]

Lack of fiscal discipline appears to be the inevitable result of democracy when granted to an ignorant and entitled population.
The US will not fare any better.

There is some debate about the origin of this quote, but it rings true whatever the source:

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy.”​

 

[notebook.fix]

Rather, you have a fairly mediocre crew whose whole advantage is that they are not a much worse crew, and a bunch of others - divided between those who don't know better, and those who do know better - who clamor for the old guard back. Awesome.

I totally agree, the Peronist Ks left the time bomb & now we get the 'Closet Ks/Peronista$ coming out to finish off the rest of the hatchet job. The one positive point about the MAcri crew (as incompetent as they are) is that at least they don't attempt steal $ in wheelbarrows in full daylight. Contrary to pop leftie's belief, MAcri is more left of center , after all he's just the son of a rich papa, he doesn't have the instinct of a true capitalist. Hopefully there's still a semi-awakened middle class that blocks the decades long Peronist pattern.

 

[ben]

I totally agree, the Peronist Ks left the time bomb & now we get the 'Closet Ks/Peronista$ coming out to finish off the rest of the hatchet job. Hopefully there's still a semi-awakened middle class that blocks the decades long pattern.

A truly courageous and/or effective alternative would help. Sadly, it is not at all clear that that is what we have here.

"Better than CFK" is not a winning strategy. Say what you will, there is a very solid K base here. If you want enough people motivated enough to outvote that, something has to be going right. Or if not right, at least according to plan.

The time to do that was at the beginning of the term, when there was enough evidence of K vandalism to justify the painful medicine which was needed. And once things would start moving north, the political benefits would accrue to Macri.

Now, Macri & Co. will all but own the coming shitstorm, in the eyes of a large majority: less people than you imagine are educated enough to keep score. By the time things get better, election season will be upon us, with the K's first campaigning against the pain of the past 2 years, then reaping the benefits thereof. Voila - mission accomplished.

This place is not for the faint of heart.

 

[notebook.fix]

A truly courageous and/or effective alternative would help. Sadly, it is not at all clear that that is what we have here.

"Better than CFK" is not a winning strategy. Say what you will, there is a very solid K base here. If you want enough people motivated enough to outvote that, something has to be going right. Or if not right, at least according to plan.

The time to do that was at the beginning of the term, when there was enough evidence of K vandalism to justify the painful medicine which was needed. And once things would start moving north, the political benefits would accrue to Macri.

Now, Macri & Co. will all but own the coming shitstorm, in the eyes of a large majority: less people than you imagine are educated enough to keep score. By the time things get better, election season will be upon us, with the K's first campaigning against the pain of the past 2 years, then reaping the benefits thereof. Voila - mission accomplished.

This place is not for the faint of heart.

Exactly! The one grand window of opportunity was missed by Macri when he first took over. Too late now. I may be wrong but reading general middle Argentine public opinion I get the feeling that there's more awareness this time round about the 'Cycles' perpetrated by the usual political mafias. There seems to be a sense that "Ok, he's f*** up & made mistakes, but we don't want the old criminal enterprise to come back". If only there was a larger segment of more politically literate in the majority, something that's been conveniently diluted away over the decades.

 

[ben]

He can still do it, it’s not too late. But there has to be coherence in both the execution and in the communication.

Call a cadena nacional. Explain clearly your case. Put numbers on the board. Go into some detail about how much worse the true numbers are than even was known during the campaign. Explain the end goal, as well as an honest assessment of how long it will take to get there.
The left has turned the word debt into a bogeyman. Explain why debt is necessary in this case. Why it will help keep the coming recession as short and as least painful as possible.

Put up the numbers that Mr Milei did. Explain how every penny the government spends pushing down the price of electricity, you are actually paying - every time you buy a loaf of bread, half of what you paid goes to the government. Etc.

If people wanted Peronismo Lite, they’d have voted Massa. Don’t be Massa, be you.

The alternative is that all the bad things will happen anyways, but with no control over the narrative, the current administration will be seen not as determinedly pushing a ship through a storm, but listlessly bobbing.

 

[toongeorges]

The situation is hopeless unless you change the culture.

In Italy, a saying goes that there are 3 ways to get rich: to marry, to inherit or to steal. There is a zero sum thinking that assumes that for you to get a benefit, someone else has to suffer. This thinking has been well imported to Argentina. It is contrary to the Anglo-Saxon way of thinking that through cooperation every one can benefit. As long as you do not change the mentality in Argentina to that it is more beneficial to cooperate with others than to take from them, things will not get better.

People do not want to make efforts to improve the situation (because they feel what they give is stolen from them), instead they want to be as much on the receiving side as possible. You can not build a stable society on such a mentality. The populists are a consequence, not a cause of the mentality. Blaming the Kirchners or whomever is not going to improve the situation, only educating people will. Changing a culture is a difficult thing to do.

 

[wineguy999]

The situation is hopeless unless you change the culture.

In Italy, a saying goes that there are 3 ways to get rich: to marry, to inherit or to steal. There is a zero sum thinking that assumes that for you to get a benefit, someone else has to suffer. This thinking has been well imported to Argentina. It is contrary to the Anglo-Saxon way of thinking that through cooperation every one can benefit. As long as you do not change the mentality in Argentina to that it is more beneficial to cooperate with others than to take from them, things will not get better.

People do not want to make efforts to improve the situation (because they feel what they give is stolen from them), instead they want to be as much on the receiving side as possible. You can not build a stable society on such a mentality. The populists are a consequence, not a cause of the mentality. Blaming the Kirchners or whomever is not going to improve the situation, only educating people will. Changing a culture is a difficult thing to do.

Inheritance, someone dies; theft, someone is a victim; and you're suggesting that, in a marriage, it's inevitable that someone will suffer?

 

[steveinbsas]

...and you're suggesting that, in a marriage, it's inevitable that someone will suffer?

In life it is inevitable that everyone will suffer, and marriage does not grant anyone an exemption.

Given the right circumstances, it may reduce the suffering for some, perhaps many, but it undoubtedly increases it for others.

 

[garryl]

The lack of fiscal discipline also plays a role. It could have been brought in with Italian culture.

Think so ?

 

[notebook.fix]

I used to believe the theory that due to the negative traits of the Italian cultural influence we have this undisciplined mess called Argentine economics.
Not anymore, it works out that there are many different types of discipline and the sol called 'Anglo Saxon' flavor is only one, and wrongly applied to a different culture can have negative COUNTER productive effects and maybe if we start to look at human life holistically, we may not get a true balance of what is 'Successful or more disciplined & efficient' . In the so called Anglo dominated English culture we have positives and negatives, not everything can me measured in simple narrow parameters according to one cultural viewpoint.

The levels of emotional & physical health in the average individual, the family unit & wider community is impacted by external trends and forces of a 'so called Globalized world and some may point out that there's also a transitional factor - the rapidly changing impact of technology etc etc...without boring or offending anyone with my opinion, I'd like to say that there's simply a lot more to the subject matter of 'discipline & Italians' when it comes to Argentina, and I'm not pushing the 'we are victims' of the English or the big bad capitalistic world etc etc....I'm simply pointing out that this topic is a lot deeper than what it appears.

GOing back on JAvier Milei's ideas and current popularity , I'm very interested not only in his economics theories but his Libertarian political views.
I wish I had the time to translate and explain his views and impact on the current economic situation, but for now it's interesting and very refreshing to to watch Argentines react to his pro small or minimal government argument... for those who can understand castellano...