fifs2 said:
I`m not sure that I would agree that we who think that denying that 20%+ inflation are green...
Well, I try to make you understand that 20% of inflation is not a crisis in this country, is average.
Argentina is very difficult to understand, I will try to resume it.
Argentina as a country was invented by the 80`s generation. They were a rich and very well educated generation of politician who belong to those families who were here since the conquest.
They designed this country to become a power, they wanted to build a Paris in South America.
They imported machine guns and they defeated the Indians by 1880. It is called “la conquista del desierto”. Since then, they were able to harvest one of the 3 most rich plains in the world. So for the next 20 years Argentina had the biggest economy growth in history. My grandfather´s father decided to come here instead of the US because this country was wealthier.
They realized that the country was empty, only 800.000 people. So they enacted law 346 expecting to bring 80 million people. They brought 10.000.000 in 20 years.
They enacted law Saenz Peña that gave the vote to all men. They expected to win elections, they were defeated by an unknown immigrant`s son. Since then they never won an election. Since then there was a cold war.
The 80`s generation economy doctrine is about to produce grain and cows and to export them and to import manufactured goods. Politically, they expected to have an educated elite to rule the country (their self of course) and peasants.
But the new government was a middle class one. They created public free and non religious universities.
On the 40`s Peron has a project related to develop heavy industry and regarding to give rights and welth to the hard hats.
So the last 60 years debate about the Argentinean economy is regarding the “farmer`s economy” vsus the industry economy.
And they were fighting each other. One rule for 4 years on the farmer´s wayT(a dictator) but the industrials (peronistas) were sabotaging them until they create a crisis and make them fall. After that, the farmers sabotage them with food prices arising them like nowadays until they make them fall. And so on.
K believes that the only way to deal with inflation and those cycles welth-crisis is to develop the industry and she is doing it. Even the farmers are having an excellent time, the industry is having it too.
So, now we are ready for the every 10 years crisis but there is no crisis, so perhaps she is right. The industry production is record, the farmer are doing very well too.
So, why I assert that Argentina is so different? This is an undeveloped country with a lot of natural resources, so it is possible to grow at high rates. 10% is not a high rate in Argentinean statics.
But inflation has a lot to do with politics. The Argentinian farmers high society families lost elections on 1916. They were responsible of all the dictatorship governments as far as you are not an Argentinian high class family is you don´t have a bishop and a general among your relatives.
The fact is that the farmers have a lot of power. If you take a perspective look about the prices arise, they rise is artificial and it started with the farmer´s lock out against the government. Inflation was the tool farmers used to make a president fall. Strikes was the tool that peronistas (the union) used to make dictatorship and some other presidents to fall.
So, inflation is complex.
During the 90´s the neos rule and it was nice for a whiile but they created a mega crisis.
So, this is the first time that farmers and industry are growing, sounds good. But this is argentina, a country that can grow too fast, a country politically immature, a young country that is having the same crisis that Europe had in the late XIX century.
And argentinian politics don´t fit neither on the standar paterns. The right is corrupted, they believe they own the country. The center is useless. De la Rua was the best example. The left isn´t serious. Kirshnerismo doesn´t fit in any of those categories.
It´s complex.
You are green about inflation, but we are green as a country.
Regards
