Is Argentina on the verge of another crisis?

[Amargo]

Panamahat, a new crisis is here already. Definitely, I'd think twice about making a move to Argentina.

This is simply not true. Or, well, then you have no idea what a crisis look like.
In spite of all the criticism, it is not REMOTELY near a typical crisis in Argentina.

 

[Amargo]

this is just another cycle of 2nd term "pillage and run" Its the prelude. Usually argentine presidents leave the economy in ruins when they leave office. It is institutionalised , from intendentes on up.

This is only partially true. It applies to peronistas leaving office if they know their party is going to lose the next elections. And then, the pillage not always means that they are taking all the money, it is that after a 2nd term they have used up all the reserves the govt before them had managed to spare.

 

[JoeGillis]

This may not be a "typical crisis in Argentina" (what exactly is that?), but there surely is a crisis. Runaway inflation (and government denial of such) and near draconian import/export restrictions are just two examples of when a country (any country) is either on the verge of or actually experiencing an economic crisis.

 

[steveinbsas]

This may not be a "typical crisis in Argentina" (what exactly is that?), but there surely is a crisis. Runaway inflation (and government denial of such) and near draconian import/export restrictions are just two examples of when a country (any country) is either on the verge of or actually experiencing an economic crisis.

For once I completely agree with Amagro.

There is nothing even close to runaway inflation here, at least not yet.

If and when there, is no one (ecxept for a few in power) will deny that there is a crisis.

That will be when prices on almost everything increase significantly on a weekly (if not daily) basis. If and when there is a crisis there will be shortages of many goods produced in Argentina and it will be most evident in the bare shelves of the supermarkets.

 

[French jurist]

The US use QEs (part 1,part 2... and one day part 3?)
Europe is soon to use a QE policy too (or is it already?) and creates tricks so that Greece defaults without defaulting.
Argentina artificially lowers the inflation to reimburse a lesser amount for the bonds.

To each country its own tricks & consequences...

 

[nicoenarg]

For once I completely agree with Amagro.

There is nothing even close to runaway inflation here, at least not yet.

If and when there, is no one (ecxept for a few in power) will deny that there is a crisis.

That will be when prices on almost everything increase significantly on a weekly (if not daily) basis. If and when there is a crisis there will be shortages of many goods produced in Argentina and it will be most evident in the bare shelves of the supermarkets.

SORRY: THIS POST IS DIRECTED TO THE OP AND NOT TO STEVEINBSAS!

The inflation right now is still manageable. If I remember what I read there was a time when Argentina had an inflation over 350% or so (old currency)?

However, Argentina did go through one of the worst crises not too long ago. Everyone from investors to the people here can easily get spooked if they smell something fishy. That is probably why things don't need to go that bad for it to all collapse like a house of cards once more.

Argentina right now is between a rock and Argentine economics. If you want to come live down here, get used to the idea of economic (and political) uncertainty.

The government has blocked imports to rack up US dollars but seeing that the neighboring countries are pissed at Argentina for blocking their products, they can turn and block Argentina's exports to them. In turn, Argentina's dollar reserves are screwed either way.

Also, if they don't import things, shelves are going to empty out because Argentina is not self sufficient (not even close). Argentine industry has run on imports for, at least, the last decade.

And there's a lot more to this discussion. Bradleyhale and I have been at it on this forum, check it out if you want.

Anyway, is Argentina going to collapse in about a month or so? No freakin' way. Talk to me in two years and I would probably tell you differently.

 

[flyingkiwi]

I've been to Argentina four times since I was a teenager, each time I come I find a different country. And every time it is safer, more civil and more interesting than I thought the time before. You should definately jump at the chance to move there for a while. A crisis is going to ruin your life while you're there, you don't have a target on your back. It will be nothing if not interesting.

 

[nicoenarg]

I've been to Argentina four times since I was a teenager, each time I come I find a different country. And every time it is safer, more civil and more interesting than I thought the time before. You should definately jump at the chance to move there for a while. A crisis is going to ruin your life while you're there, you don't have a target on your back. It will be nothing if not interesting.

It is actually not safer than it was, say, two years ago. Things are changing for the worse but its still not hell.

 

[dennisr]

Argentina is like one of those soap-operas that goes on and on, crisis after crisis. Do not woose out, go for it. You will have some real life stories to tell your grandchildren. None of that "once upon a time BS. Look at it this way, you shall be just trading one form of horse-shit for another.

 

[Markgeezer]

When its bursts (again) the pickings will be very worthwhile for those expats who live here.