va2ba said:
As long as I have been on this forum, people have been predicting that the next economic crisis in Argentina was just around the corner.
I think most people are expecting it. It certainly looks like we are close, or that we might already be in the beginning of a crisis, but Argentina has surprised us before...
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I agree with va2ba that it's very easy to predict doom & gloom and say the sky is falling here in Argentina, but somehow we/they will survive. But at what cost?
Even though I'm a newbie with only 2.5 years here, I think about some combination of the following occurring...
- continued 20-30% inflation combined with occasional steep depreciation of the peso (in spite of Central Bank interventions)
- shortages, inconveniences and transit strikes/breakdowns, but those with income-investments in dollars won't suffer nearly as much as those w/o
- housing flat, since already dollarized
- a tougher life for the poor and middle-class, leading to vicious circle of misery-crime-unemployment-cheaper labor-misery. Sadly, much suffering.
- ?another corralito/freeze on bank-held assets, especially dollar accounts, to prevent bank runs?
- when the pendulum swings, a possible stronger role for the military-conservative factions and a partial opening up of dollar restrictions and imports, (albeit still expensive for most Argentines), however international dollar/euro transfer mechanisms remain constipated.
- what else?
Jim
