Is The Economy Dead In Argentina?

[ghost]

Argentina is a very strong country that has resisted an unbelievable amount of hits and abuse. There are a lot of strong things that keep the country afloat. Time has been proof that Argentina is very rich in many ways, it's just cursed with Argentine politicians. Is the country booming? No. There are a lot of problems. That being said a there are a lot of fields that seem to have a lot going for them: IT, manufacturing, agriculture...... With a reasonable government and time this country could easily be a top 10 player.

I agree. But people have been saying this for 50 years. Maybe it's "Dead" maybe it's a Zombie. Somehow the Argentine economy seems to survive reports of its own demise.

 

[Gringoboy]

In fairness to Baja, he did say the "economy is okay in local standards." I knew exactlly what he meant.

On another but similar note, I am sad that a very good Argentina friend upon whom I sort of depend for analysis of these things--because he is Argentine and in business for many years and seems to have his fingers on the pulse around there--told me he's made the decision to leave. He doesn't like the makeup of Congress--still--and also the fact that the supreme court ruled in favor of CK and Clarin will soon be defunct, the last objective voice in Argentina, he thinks. He says when that happens, the entire media will be controlled which will not be good for the country.

At the same time, in my area the shops are packed and so are the restaurants. Everyone is laughing and appear to be having fun. I do know that Argentinians have accepted that this is just Argentina and learned to live with it.Some tell me they don't even worry about it. It comes and it goes. One very negative Argentine friend tells me people are spending their money as soon as they get it because next week it will buy less.

I'm no authority on Argentina, this is all gathered from Argentine friends..

Clarin will be defunct? I don't think so Arlean.

 

[cbonanni]

Certain segments of the economy are doing fine. Automotive , agriculture ,food retail, Corruption. Others such as Real Estate , Infrastructure , manufacturing investment , , are all suffering. All in all , nothing changes, The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The house of "k" cards will come crashing down soon.

 

[Gringoboy]

The 'House of Cards' reference is spot on!

 

[Jaredberryman]

I would say not dead, more like limping a bit.

 

[sesamosinsal]

He doesn't like the makeup of Congress--still--and also the fact that the supreme court ruled in favor of CK and Clarin will soon be defunct, the last objective voice in Argentina, he thinks.

Clarin the last objective voice? :unsure:There isn't a single media outlet in this country that even tries to be objective. (I'd argue that objectivity in media is pretty much impossible, though.)

 

[nikad]

20/25% of inflación was the average for almost 50 years.

The economy is doing ok on a context where stronger countries are doing very bad like Spain or Italy.

The economy is dead when there is recesión. Instead of growing over 7%, it is expected about 2,5%.

When the economy is f up, inflación is about 1000%.

wow, Italy and Spain stronger? Seriously? They have always been the slowest and most corrupt countries in western Europe... Why not compare against Canada, Australia, etc like Cristina did? The economy is not doing OK. The country has not had 50 years of 25% inflation yearly, that is BS: These inflation rates eat up any growth. Numbers for monkeys. Growth is calculated using some of INDEC´s numbers... growth, really? I second the stand up day job for you

 

[nikad]

Certain segments of the economy are doing fine. Automotive , agriculture ,food retail, Corruption. Others such as Real Estate , Infrastructure , manufacturing investment , , are all suffering. All in all , nothing changes, The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The house of "k" cards will come crashing down soon.

Ooops, other areas in our economy that are consistently growing: poverty, mediocrity, lack of education, crime, corruption, trains, roads, hospitals, justice, freedom, to name a few, oh forgot high end imported cars for the masses and blue dollars. A big success!

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

Clarin the last objective voice? :unsure:There isn't a single media outlet in this country that even tries to be objective. (I'd argue that objectivity in media is pretty much impossible, though.)

Patronage is everything, the paymaster dictates the tune.

 

[Matiasba]

As I said many times here, economic growth since 2003 is reaching its limit. We grew for more than 8 years at 8%, and that went to a 2% due imports restrictions. But we re still growing. As someone said, you can still see the shopping centers packed, consumption is high, thats also because people cant save. The automobile sector is producing a million cars per year, even my gardener bought a brand new car this year!! The automobile market is reaching its limit, there are in the streets 10 million of new cars, 1 million for 10 years, and as we say "te tiran los autos por la cabeza", which means, there are tons of financiation to sell cars nowadays. So to have this boom with cars industry means that people have money to buy new cars, and its not like a candy, its a car, thousands of dollars. There are 13 countries in the world that produces as many cars as we do. Only 13!!
So internal market is strong. You see movement, people going from one place to another, people on the streets, transport is very cheap, of course to allow movement, to stimulate internal market. You should have seen the country in 2002, streets were dead, negocios were dead, no people in the street, Panamericana empty, without traffic, no movement. People only got out of their houses to protest, that was a dead economy.


I saw a chart about a month ago, I cant remember the link, but was somethinng like what % of exports in Argentina were agro products and which percentage was industrial goods, technology, etc, in 2001 and in 2010, and compared Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. Mexico had like a 50% of technology products, but they didnt change in the last 10 years, Brazil had also a big percentage, cant remember the number, but went down in the last ten years, and Argentina went from 16% to 25%. So there is the change from 25% unemployment to 5-6% as we have today, in the industry, in the recovery.

But as I said we re not growing at 8%, we re in 2% and after growing for 10 years. We never in our history grew more than that. So we are in the limit. I think recession is about to begin, if not with this government with the next, probably not K, that will devaluate, make an ajuste, eliminate subsidios, slow down the economy with a lot of measures, etc.

About inflation, is a huge tax that affects the lower strata, but you have paritarias for the 70% of the job market and the other 30%, the ones who work en negro have a lot of subsidios of different kind. A lot of people in this forum said last week that despite inflation this country is still cheap. I know, you have to earn in dollars, but I know people who earn 6000 pesos and live well. We can live here with less money than in the US and Japan, UK, etc, and that is taking into consideration the inflation.