Kirchner Rescued Argentinas Economy and help unite South America

[LAtoBA]

I appreciate that clearly Argentina has made improvements since the crash. However, like Almagro says there really was no where to go but up.

That's not exactly true. The economy could have stagnated, just like Brazil's in the 80's and early 90's.

 

[mini]

That's not exactly true. The economy could have stagnated, just like Brazil's in the 80's and early 90's.

Yeah, I guess you're right. Maybe I was just being overly optimistic. I guess it could have just stayed the same or gotten worse.

 

[gouchobob]

I appreciate that clearly Argentina has made improvements since the crash. However, like Almagro says there really was no where to go but up.

Actually Mini I think this is a pretty fair statement. I think it could have stagnated but Argentina was the lucky beneficiary of conditions in the world. Namely a boom in China and Brazil which created demand and higher prices for what Argentina produces. It was these external events not actions by the government(they probably hurt more than helped ). The question is what happens when the boom ends. Without a lot more investment both internal and external there is going to be problems. What's going to keep the economy moving forward? What's needed is a change in government policies that encourages investment. With Nestors departure there is at least some hope it could occur. The financial markets have certainly signaling this hope the last couple of days. Time will tell if things are going to change.

 

[Nossyd]

The death of a son, brother, father, and husband is a sad occasion, and the only human reaction is to pass condolences and wishes of strength to the people in Nestor Kirchner’s immediate circle and I add my voice in this respect.

As for the rush to sanctify him as a great statesman, the president who took Argentina into an economic revival, a figurehead for human rights, a force against poverty in Argentina, etc., etc., I would however reserve my opinion. He was elected as president at a time when Argentina was in a mess - socially, economically and politically. He managed to garnish the support of major trade unions (by hook or by crook) and won more as a result of the lack of any other viable candidates than his own strengths. My seven year old son could have managed to improve the economy of the country, given the fact that it was below rock bottom as it was. Living in Argentina, I can tell that things did not get any better either during his rule or the subsequent one of his wife. The gap between rich and poor is getting greater. Crime and corruption has gone worse. Nestor, bless his soul, even went to the length of prolonging his time in power by diverting his presidency to his wife. Let's face it - this scenario could only happen in a banana republic, not in a serious country. The people of Argentina deserve better, but unfortunately they are in the grip of a political and financial "elite" that depend on a large proportion of its population staying poor and being easily manipulated, and therefore do all it can to stop real progress. The unions are a key tool in this respect, and corruption and crime the standard ingredient in their activities.

Make no mistake, as a politician Nestor Kirchner was no great shakes in terms of bringing Argentina forward as a nation. I hope and believe he did better as a son, brother, husband, and father, and wish his family strength in this difficult time.

 

[mcaffa]

The death of a son, brother, father, and husband is a sad occasion, and the only human reaction is to pass condolences and wishes of strength to the people in Nestor Kirchner’s immediate circle and I add my voice in this respect.

As for the rush to sanctify him as a great statesman, the president who took Argentina into an economic revival, a figurehead for human rights, a force against poverty in Argentina, etc., etc., I would however reserve my opinion. He was elected as president at a time when Argentina was in a mess - socially, economically and politically. He managed to garnish the support of major trade unions (by hook or by crook) and won more as a result of the lack of any other viable candidates than his own strengths. My seven year old son could have managed to improve the economy of the country, given the fact that it was below rock bottom as it was. Living in Argentina, I can tell that things did not get any better either during his rule or the subsequent one of his wife. The gap between rich and poor is getting greater. Crime and corruption has gone worse. Nestor, bless his soul, even went to the length of prolonging his time in power by diverting his presidency to his wife. Let's face it - this scenario could only happen in a banana republic, not in a serious country. The people of Argentina deserve better, but unfortunately they are in the grip of a political and financial "elite" that depend on a large proportion of its population staying poor and being easily manipulated, and therefore do all it can to stop real progress. The unions are a key tool in this respect, and corruption and crime the standard ingredient in their activities.

Make no mistake, as a politician Nestor Kirchner was no great shakes in terms of bringing Argentina forward as a nation. I hope and believe he did better as a son, brother, husband, and father, and wish his family strength in this difficult time.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[Amargo]

Nestor, bless his soul, even went to the length of prolonging his time in power by diverting his presidency to his wife. Let's face it - this scenario could only happen in a banana republic, not in a serious country.

I remember another banana republic where someone prolonged his time in power by diverting his presidency to his son...and even a cowboy-actor became president! We have a long way to go before we match that. Probably until Maradona becomes President.

 

[Nossyd]

I remember another banana republic where someone prolonged his time in power by diverting his presidency to his son...and even a cowboy-actor became president! We have a long way to go before we match that. Probably until Maradona becomes President.

...still, looking at some of the presidential hopefuls we find a former power boat captain (losing an arm in the process...), a racing car driver (known for being second...), a film director (of largely unknown works), a previously failed president (serving less than a year and a half...). At least Diego was the best in the world at what he was doing. Maybe that gives him a real chance - only in Argentina though...!

 

[LAtoBA]

Actually Mini I think this is a pretty fair statement. I think it could have stagnated but Argentina was the lucky beneficiary of conditions in the world. Namely a boom in China and Brazil which created demand and higher prices for what Argentina produces. It was these external events not actions by the government(they probably hurt more than helped ).

Except there was no economic boom in Brazil between 2004-2008. In fact if you compare Brazil's GDP growth rate with Argentina's in the same time period, Argentina wins. It also lagged behind other Latin American countries and the global average. Brazil's "boom" is a fairly recent phenomenon (2009). China of course is a different story.

I can think of a whole slew of things the Kirchners have done to damage the economy (especially as of late with Cristina). That being said, the Argentine economy rebounded, and fairly well under Nestor Kirchner, all personal feelings aside.

What's needed is a change in government policies that encourages investment.

Agreed.

With Nestors departure there is at least some hope it could occur. The financial markets have certainly signaling this hope the last couple of days.

I would be hesitant to juxtapose hope with the financial markets. Financial markets are a barometer of profitability, not hope. Especially in today's market that is dominated by the institutional investor.

All things aside I think I understand the point you were trying to make.

 

[gouchobob]

Except there was no economic boom in Brazil between 2004-2008. In fact if you compare Brazil's GDP growth rate with Argentina's in the same time period, Argentina wins. It also lagged behind other Latin American countries and the global average. Brazil's "boom" is a fairly recent phenomenon (2009). China of course is a different story.

I can think of a whole slew of things the Kirchners have done to damage the economy (especially as of late with Cristina). That being said, the Argentine economy rebounded, and fairly well under Nestor Kirchner, all personal feelings aside.



Agreed.



I would be hesitant to juxtapose hope with the financial markets. Financial markets are a barometer of profitability, not hope. Especially in today's market that is dominated by the institutional investor.

All things aside I think I understand the point you were trying to make.

I think I understand your points as well and agree. I think the financial markets are signaling that change may be possible now which would increase profitability which could spur additional investments and growth, maybe better way of putting it. You also have to be careful when looking at statistics for Argentina. The fact that inflation is being under-reported is widely known. There is a belief that they have been over-reporting growth as well. For example in 2009 the government I believe(don't have the numbers in front of me) showed modest growth in the economy whereas private estimates are that the economy actually shrank about 4 or 4.5 percent. The point with Brazil or Chile is that their economic model may have ups and downs but it they appear to be sustainable and delivering growth over the long term. I don't think Nestor's model was sustainable over time, maybe that will change now, but I have my doubts.

 

[SaraSara]

Yesterday the Merval was up, Argentine bonds were up, the dollar was holding steady, and the country risk was down. A promising start...!

Promising, but painful for those married to the dollar, who had been counting on a big devaluation after next year's elections. Now, all bets are off.