Macri , Dec 11Th End Of Cepo Foreign Exchange Restrictions

[GS_Dirtboy]

Each time in the past when the cepo was lifted the official rate merged up to the blue. Stand by for devaluation then higher prices as the new government tries to price correct by removing lots of subsidies among other things.

 

[Rich One]

Much government Criticism against Macri for announcing a Devaluation for Dec 11th ...! May incite investors to buy dollars...!

 

[HenryNisental]

I am in Miami now,in the Sawcrass Mall they exchange Arg pesos at 17 per USD

 

[glasgowjohn]

I am in Miami now,in the Sawcrass Mall they exchange Arg pesos at 17 per USD

So if i go next week with $100 , they will give me 1700 pesos?

 

[Somewhereinba]

So if i go next week with $100 , they will give me 1700 pesos?

Most likely the spread is about 5 pesos !! 17/12

 

[ghost]

I am in Miami now,in the Sawcrass Mall they exchange Arg pesos at 17 per USD

Only in Sawgrass, That is funny. Anywhere else in Miami they'll tell you to keep them and smile.

 

[sesamosinsal]

The official and blue rate would merge at a level that reflects supply and demand. This will be closer to the blue in the beginning, but will drift down if and when net dollar inflows pick up as a result of better economic policies. ... In the medium-to-long term, inflation will go down if the government stops printing money to finance irresponsible spending. You may say I'm a dreamer.

1) Based on what we're seeing regionally and globally, the USDARS will continue to devalue. There is a global demand problem, and this is manifesting itself in trade balances, current accounts, oil prices, etc., etc. This notion that Macri comes into power and everything becomes OK again is absurd. If Macri lifts the cepo, the other headline is that he will devalue. Inflation will increase. Will Redrado return to the BCRA and Volkerize (raise interest rates aggressively) the Argentine economy? In this case, I predict that Macri will be out in less than a year, if he can get elected in the first place.

2) What is the irresponsible spending? Firing the public sector? No more Universal Child Credits? Reducing subsidies of gas, electricity, etc.? No more subsidies for public transportation? No more funds for public hospitals? Police? Universities?

3) Name a country that isn't printing money to finance "irresponsible spending." (After you define that buzz word, of course...)

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BTW, for all of those folks wondering why FVP candidates are all showing Cristina in their campaign ads, it's because she's still quite popular, even according to not-so-government-friendly pollsters: http://www.diarioreg...a-cristina.html -- This would suggest that Macri's presidential election won't be a slam dunk, no matter how much money he has because there is a difference between actually making a difference in voters' lives and saying you will. (And I base that statement on the results of the various polls over the past year that show relatively decent approval for CFK and her government.)

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

Printing money without any assets to back it up has got us to 30%+ inflation, who is up for trying something else? Maybe let's find the real value of the peso and work from that basis. Obviously counter intuitive in Argentina which is addicted to short term populist solutions, but we're at the end of that process so a painful change is required. I wouldn't recommend Macri's approach but the goal of a free floating currency must be achieved. The how, and how long are certainly debatable, the result cannot be to the sane mind.

Irresponsible spending? 6 billion on publicity. Football para Todos. Transport subsidies which could certainly be streamlined. You'd need to be a meth head to claim that the BA city bus network is efficient and a good use of resources. I doubt anyone is going to defend the current staffing levels of the national Airline. There are efficiencies available. The current spending levels on health an education should be increased and the private sector allowed to take up some of the slack with the two big governement expenditures (Transport and Energy), certainly in energy there is a subsidy culture for industry and private use which is completely misdirected.

You'd hope that the next govt in would move away from the the cheap populist tactic of barely keeping the lights on to swtiching subsidies to green energy. Solar, wind etc..

The Otocha nuclear projects are worthwhile, but really should be augmented with other sources rather than having boats turn up in port laden with petrol which you haven't the dollars to pay for and are paying through the nose for due to hedging at a higher price than you subsequently realised was wise and trying to wrangle out of the contract.

All opinion polls I've seen based on the election heavily favour Massa, Macri (the sith lord, apparently) and Scioli. It's an error to think that some of the Christina love doesn't become Scioli love and automatically transfers to Randazzo.

Remember, the FPV needed alliances to get elected. UCR or PJ, right now they look to be fragmenting from the PJ. If Randazzo is their candidate they lose a resurgent PJ. Cant see it. The duck needs a dog to hunt!

I can't see anyone winning in the first round, but FPV have no friends in a run off. The recent nonsense around not wanting to use the force of law to attack the barra bravas is a real own goal. You don't win an election with a soft on crime message, regardless of what you want your electorate to believe right now crime is a serious issue according to public perception. Perception matters more than reality at this stage. The rise of Massa should have been a barometric indicator for this, but the model must prevail!

 

[TWB103]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]---2) What is the irresponsible spending? Firing the public sector? No more Universal Child Credits? Reducing subsidies of gas, electricity, etc.? No more subsidies for public transportation? No more funds for public hospitals? Police? Universities?-----[/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)] [/background]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]It seems many Argentines think that in our capitalist gringo paradises their is NO benefits system. T[/background][background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]he benefits the government provides here seems no worse than say in the UK where a 14 yr old mother will get housing benefits and child care and of course free health care. A few years ago during the labour government I was in [/background][background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]in the Sierra Nevadas in [/background][background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]Spain where there was a hippy commune of brits who were claiming unemployment benefits from the UK. They just went to the nearest spanish town every week and withdrew the money from the cash machine! [/background]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]Having said that the public sector in Argentina is a little bloated is it not?[/background]

 

[Jaredberryman]

Where is the irresponsible spending? In the pockets of all the corrupt politicians, that's where. There's no way to know, but I bet half of public spending is getting put into rich corrupt politician's pockets. Fix that problem, and this country changes forever. Will that happen any time soon? Not likely.