Military Coup/Dictatorship; Could it happen again?
- Thread starter LostinBA
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mhenna11 said:Why is he lost? Can you elaborate, I am curious. Thanks!
They are the words of psychoanalyst who invents head scratching non sequiturs to confuse and convince people into thinking he's on to something. In this case, I'd wager he looked at my nickname 'LostinBA' and derived something 'deeper' from it. Typical psychoanalyst nonsense.
Santiago F
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LostinBA said:
I unserstand one can never say never, but still in terms of probability, it is quite unlikely. If we've been almost 30 years in democracy now, as opposed to the 30 years prior to 1976, when there were a lot of coups and the pendulum went from side to side so easily... well, at least that tells you something.
I wonder if it is just the threat of the return of military rule is CK's greatest defence in rallying public support. People are justifiably haunted by those times. I remember that she certainly raised the spectre pretty effectively in a speech responding to people taking to the streets with their pots and pans during the agricultural strike in 2009, pretty much saying look what happened last time... and the popular protests stopped.
I'd say no on a possible military dictatorship. Too many people would take to the street right away. Too many people alive remember it or have been told about it by their folks.
I'd see more the possibility of people accepting a kind of technocratic invasiveness in their lives to counter perceived insecurity and to construct a financial system that works. Mechanisms that can track your whereabouts and your transactions will become more commonplace.
This is in no way particular to Argentina. It's nascent everywhere there's the infrastructure to do it. The UK and US are the worst.
Although I realize she's sharp-elbowed, I think CFK might have more foresight than many realize. The world is changing and powers are realigning, and I have a feeling she's positioning herself for a power shift between the US/EU and the BRIC countries. Getting out of foreign currencies might end up looking pretty smart if one of the major ones collapses. I think she's preparing for a possible rise of the BRICs or the neutrality of the Southern Cone in case of major world conflict. If I was Argentina and the big boys were fighting, I'd sell soy to the Chinese and try to get my hands on some oil to sell to the yanks, then back home kick a little asado para todos and futbol para los pibes.
I think what might be more of a concern to us here, is what it will be like to be an English-speaking foreigner, though I realize that many people on the board are from other places besides the US/UK commonwealth. This administration has rattled the cage of the UK and US recently enough that they are starting to retaliate with economic measures. If she can time a negative financial event around it, such as peso devaluation, and then blame it on the gringos, the administration could wash its hands of responsibility for what's happened to the currency and have carte blanche to do whatever they wanted financially to counter "el neo-liberalismo estadounidense" and "este viejo poder colonial de reino unido".
The above is clearly a projection. If it happened, life would not be nice for us. Attitudes have already changed here from a year ago. I'm thinking angry mobs and sudden perma-tourist visa enforcement. Throw a bit of that on TV and it would take people's minds of what would be happening to their country and future.
Someone please tell me I'm nuts.
I'd see more the possibility of people accepting a kind of technocratic invasiveness in their lives to counter perceived insecurity and to construct a financial system that works. Mechanisms that can track your whereabouts and your transactions will become more commonplace.
This is in no way particular to Argentina. It's nascent everywhere there's the infrastructure to do it. The UK and US are the worst.
Although I realize she's sharp-elbowed, I think CFK might have more foresight than many realize. The world is changing and powers are realigning, and I have a feeling she's positioning herself for a power shift between the US/EU and the BRIC countries. Getting out of foreign currencies might end up looking pretty smart if one of the major ones collapses. I think she's preparing for a possible rise of the BRICs or the neutrality of the Southern Cone in case of major world conflict. If I was Argentina and the big boys were fighting, I'd sell soy to the Chinese and try to get my hands on some oil to sell to the yanks, then back home kick a little asado para todos and futbol para los pibes.
I think what might be more of a concern to us here, is what it will be like to be an English-speaking foreigner, though I realize that many people on the board are from other places besides the US/UK commonwealth. This administration has rattled the cage of the UK and US recently enough that they are starting to retaliate with economic measures. If she can time a negative financial event around it, such as peso devaluation, and then blame it on the gringos, the administration could wash its hands of responsibility for what's happened to the currency and have carte blanche to do whatever they wanted financially to counter "el neo-liberalismo estadounidense" and "este viejo poder colonial de reino unido".
The above is clearly a projection. If it happened, life would not be nice for us. Attitudes have already changed here from a year ago. I'm thinking angry mobs and sudden perma-tourist visa enforcement. Throw a bit of that on TV and it would take people's minds of what would be happening to their country and future.
Someone please tell me I'm nuts.
I thnk you're wrong about CFK having foresight and breaking away from US/Europe and aligning with BRIC. One, I don't think they have any real foresight and I think their economic principles are as easily based on witchcraft as any other system for all the sense it makes. Two, I don't think they are really capable of planning because I don't think Cristina even approaches Eva in terms of maybe feeling something for her fellow countrymen and doesn't really know even how to accomplish whatever it is she wants to do, unless it is robbing the country blind for her own benefit.
Brazil and China are as pissed off as the US and Europe at what CFK is doing. If she were trying to curry favor with them, she would allow imports from these countries I would think.
Considering that Argentina and China signed a trade deal some years ago, immigrations even had a special program for Chinese citizens to get residency, and Argentina had already, before this last import crap showed up, had pissed China off with import duties, I don't think they are too concerned (for some reason) with what China thinks.
Also, Brazil is very unhappy with Argentina at the moment. They are both members of the Mercosur and Argentina already had some issues along these lines previously, but now that Brazil can't export things to Argentina...
I do agree with you about the possibility of CFK blaming everything on foreigners and particularly US and UK citizens being targeted.
There was already, in the last couple of years, quite a bit of "street propaganda" being distributed saying things like "don't pay the invalid foreign debt" which is obviously a slur on companies from the States, for some weird reason, wanting to get paid back the loans that Argentina made of its own free will and then defaulted on, instead spending money like it was water on maintaining currency value and subsidies and other social programs.
Brazil and China are as pissed off as the US and Europe at what CFK is doing. If she were trying to curry favor with them, she would allow imports from these countries I would think.
Considering that Argentina and China signed a trade deal some years ago, immigrations even had a special program for Chinese citizens to get residency, and Argentina had already, before this last import crap showed up, had pissed China off with import duties, I don't think they are too concerned (for some reason) with what China thinks.
Also, Brazil is very unhappy with Argentina at the moment. They are both members of the Mercosur and Argentina already had some issues along these lines previously, but now that Brazil can't export things to Argentina...
I do agree with you about the possibility of CFK blaming everything on foreigners and particularly US and UK citizens being targeted.
There was already, in the last couple of years, quite a bit of "street propaganda" being distributed saying things like "don't pay the invalid foreign debt" which is obviously a slur on companies from the States, for some weird reason, wanting to get paid back the loans that Argentina made of its own free will and then defaulted on, instead spending money like it was water on maintaining currency value and subsidies and other social programs.
I anted to edit my previous post to add something, but for some reason I no longer have the ability to edit my posts...
I do also agree that it is extremely unlikely we will see a military dictatorship return here. But that doesn't mean that CFK can't gather enough power together to make things pretty miserable here for people who oppose her. It doesn't take military to make people disappear...
I do also agree that it is extremely unlikely we will see a military dictatorship return here. But that doesn't mean that CFK can't gather enough power together to make things pretty miserable here for people who oppose her. It doesn't take military to make people disappear...
jimdepalermo
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Eclair said:
nicoenarg said:
Both Kirchner presidents have always governed via executive mandate. They have had the emergency power of "decree" from the beginning, and vastly more laws have been published by decree than by legislation since Nestor took power. Add to this the dangerous personnel changes in supposedly independent positions, like Central Bank Governor and various judges, and you already have a dictatorial situation. Just because they haven't acted like Hitler doesn't mean they haven't enjoyed dictatorial powers.
The night they lost the congressional majority a few years ago, I was with Argentine friends watching the election returns. As we cheered the results, I said we could finally look forward to the revocation of the emergency powers. The locals all said no, because Congress would be scared to exercise their constitutional responsibilities. And they were right.
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Another point regarding an unlikely military takeover - what is the average Argentine's second-most important concern (after the economy)? Security! Lack of Safety in the streets and in their homes!
I attended an aborted annual asamblea of my consorcio last night - aborted because not enough younger owners showed up to form a legal quorum - where the old folks chatted about nothing other than crime and feeling insecure. 2 people in their 70s said they had never felt so insecure in their lives - and they lived through the era of the Montoneros vs the Alianza Anticomunista.
It's Argentina, where anything is possible!
