Nestor Kirchner has just passed

[SaraSara]

My life and livelihood do not rest upon the correctness of my analysis. I will be happy to buy or not depending upon the direction of the market. I will stay on the sideline content in the knowledge that the Argentine economy is like a roller coaster full of exhilarating highs followed by rapid declines. I will wait for a decline.

Realtors are fond of saying that properties always go up. That is true in the very long run, with a time horizon of 20-plus years, but not necessarily in the short run. I've seen a house go from 145K, to 80K, to 200K in six years, and during the past forty I've lived through three real estate swing cycles. In the end, prices have remained more or less steady.

IMHO, buying property is largely a matter of waiting for the pendulum to swing our way. Real estate investing requires strong nerves and enough staying power to cope with the periodic downturns.

There's plenty of speculative buying around BA, as many buildings are being sold from the "pozo" - before even breaking ground. I know people who are buying six or seven units at a time, with a view to reselling them later at a good profit.

 

[perry]

Death is always sad but I can tell you that Kirschner will not be missed by many. Just look at the bond markets. The international community is celebrating his death and basically saying that his death is better for the future of Argentina. You can agree or disagree with that but many look at his death as a positive.

I see that the vultures are already rubbing their hands in glee hoping that there is another crash like in 2002 so they came buy everything in Argentina at rock bottom prices even when the country and its people have lost all their savings but hey thats life

 

[dr__dawggy]

I see that the vultures are already rubbing their hands in glee hoping that there is another crash like in 2002 so they came buy everything in Argentina at rock bottom prices even when the country and its people have lost all their savings but hey thats life

I am sure you will refuse to list or sell properties that may decline in value based on your keen sense of ethics that will not allow you to take advantage of people who may sell tomorrow for less than their properties are worth today.

 

[earlyretirement]

I don't know if "glee" is a word I'd use to describe people's attitude about this. I wouldn't use that word nor do I think people are waiting for a crash like 2002. Frankly, I don't see another crash as bad as 2002. Argentina will always have bouts of economic instability but I never see it as bad as 2002.

As far as the speculation, I'd agree with Perry that the speculation is very low. Keep in mind that the market here in Buenos Aires is quite different than most places around the world. It's 100% cash over the table not the funny money 3.5% down payments like in the USA. It's the reason why real estate in the USA keeps falling. There are still millions more homes to get foreclosed on in the USA. In Buenos Aires there aren't foreclosures because people own their homes outright. Even the people that are "speculating" are doing it with 100% cash which is quite different.

It's not just upper class locals that are investing in real estate as Perry mentioned. It's just middle class as well. There is no where else to park money in Argentina besides the real estate market so it will be an attractive place for locals to invest.

I've actually enjoyed watching the real estate market fall tremendously in the USA. Too much darn speculation. If you want to talk about speculators and real estate look at places like the USA, Ireland, Spain. Places where you could formally buy places with 0% down payment. It's the reason why some places in Miami Beach are dirt cheap and continue to fall. Add into the mix that many of those people are going to end up defaulting anyway or just staying in their places waiting to be foreclosed on.

Argentina is a whole other ball game. While I don't think real estate prices will skyrocket upwards....I don't see it crashing again either. There is simply nothing else to invest in here in Argentina besides land and bricks.

Also, I'll mention that the term "vulture" shouldn't be used for intelligent investors that bought at the crash. Those people that invested in real estate after the crash definitely cleaned up and made a lot of money. Those "vultures" that are watching the real estate market crash in the USA and waiting for the right time to purchase are also intelligent. Not sure how investing intelligently starting getting termed "vulture".

 

[dr__dawggy]

I see that the vultures are already rubbing their hands in glee hoping that there is another crash like in 2002 so they came buy everything in Argentina at rock bottom prices even when the country and its people have lost all their savings but hey thats life

I am a little confused here. Isn't is disingenuous to extol the virtues of the K's on the one hand and to call those who want to take advantage of lower prices "vultures" on the other hand? After all, the K's appropriated the private retirement accounts of millions of Argentinos (their version of 401k's) to prop up the Argentine version of social security.

 

[perry]

I am a little confused here. Isn't is disingenuous to extol the virtues of the K's on the one hand and to call those who want to take advantage of lower prices "vultures" on the other hand? After all, the K's appropriated the private retirement accounts of millions of Argentinos (their version of 401k's) to prop up the Argentine version of social security.

All of us have faults that is the nature of man . But all this talk of investment funds celebrating the death of Nestor Kirchner is too much.
His body is still warm as we speak . Let him rest in peace......

 

[erocifeller]

Just got back from Plaza de Mayo. Pretty busy downtown tonight!!

 

[perry]

I don't know if "glee" is a word I'd use to describe people's attitude about this. I wouldn't use that word nor do I think people are waiting for a crash like 2002. Frankly, I don't see another crash as bad as 2002. Argentina will always have bouts of economic instability but I never see it as bad as 2002.

As far as the speculation, I'd agree with Perry that the speculation is very low. Keep in mind that the market here in Buenos Aires is quite different than most places around the world. It's 100% cash over the table not the funny money 3.5% down payments like in the USA. It's the reason why real estate in the USA keeps falling. There are still millions more homes to get foreclosed on in the USA. In Buenos Aires there aren't foreclosures because people own their homes outright. Even the people that are "speculating" are doing it with 100% cash which is quite different.

It's not just upper class locals that are investing in real estate as Perry mentioned. It's just middle class as well. There is no where else to park money in Argentina besides the real estate market so it will be an attractive place for locals to invest.

I've actually enjoyed watching the real estate market fall tremendously in the USA. Too much darn speculation. If you want to talk about speculators and real estate look at places like the USA, Ireland, Spain. Places where you could formally buy places with 0% down payment. It's the reason why some places in Miami Beach are dirt cheap and continue to fall. Add into the mix that many of those people are going to end up defaulting anyway or just staying in their places waiting to be foreclosed on.

Argentina is a whole other ball game. While I don't think real estate prices will skyrocket upwards....I don't see it crashing again either. There is simply nothing else to invest in here in Argentina besides land and bricks.

Also, I'll mention that the term "vulture" shouldn't be used for intelligent investors that bought at the crash. Those people that invested in real estate after the crash definitely cleaned up and made a lot of money. Those "vultures" that are watching the real estate market crash in the USA and waiting for the right time to purchase are also intelligent. Not sure how investing intelligently starting getting termed "vulture".

A intelligent post I commend you for your reply. The topic is Nestor Kirchner and his death and the implications for the future in Argentina . In actual fact many analysts believe that it is favourable to Peronism and Christina Fernadez Kirchner . There is no grounds at all for this belief that Argentina will collapse as it had in 2002 .I believe that it is in very favoured position currently and do not see any sign of any 7 year crash that has been a hallmark of its last 50 years .I do see more stability in the future though and a more mature government that will ride out the economic black clouds engulfing the world atm

I know that Nestor Kirchner will be looked on favourably by most even with his faults and his own personal enrichment through power. The truth of the matter is that Argentina has improved markedly in the last 7 years and call it luck or call it Kitchnerismo this will be forever remembered by the population . I know the local people enough to know they are forgiving and especially so in death he will be immortalised like Carlos Gardel, Evita Peron, Che Guevarra and others.

 

[French jurist]

Damn, on the main french newspaper website, it is really crowded by Argentines. They are fighting like mad : http://america-latina.blog.lemonde....estor-kirchner-affaiblit-le-pouvoir-argentin/


I don't see it as a good sign that NK died, now the hyenas will be unleashed I'm afraid. He and Cristina were really forming una pareja presidencial. And just one year from the elections, I get ready to see dirty play.


Anyway, I've got news : the Kirchner were at least popular among the lower classes... and since they represent a good part of Argentina... I've seen quite a few young persons from a villa (spent my new year's eve in one, it was charming, sincerely) starting a training for free, and trying to progress. Same for the contribution for the kids, it definitely helped many people.

Un pensiamento para la familia,

Viva la Republica Argentina !

 

[jp]

Man did some good things, some great things, and plenty of not so great things.
Taken in the context of the last 30 years I struggle to understand the opinion that he was "one of the worst presidents ever". I thought (and still think) argentina deserved better, but that's not to say he wasn't a vast improvement on his predecessors. May he rest in peace.