Nestor Kirchner has just passed

[nikad]

I expect a huge devaluation. IT import dollar price is at $4.07 for wholesale.

The day before Nestor died we were all selling technology at $4.00

Just wait, we will have dinner again at Puerto Madero for a few bucks soon.

Dream on, neither local economists, nor foreign think so.

 

[perry]

Dream on, neither local economists, nor foreign think so.

I find these posts offensive about Argentina crashing as they always come across with the feeling of hope that things can be very cheap again so that some tourists can buy 3 dollar dinners and apartments in Recoleta will be less than US 1000 per metre. Do these people ever think about the small person who has lost his business and his savings due to engineered financial crisises caused by corrupt governments in cohorts with international bankers . This is a common occurrence that has plagued western societies for the last 200 years and we the people need to understand that and try to work together to have honest governments who work for the common good of their people. There is no perfect government I am very aware of that but I do believe that Argentina currently has a better government than we have had for a long time .

Many have been saying since 2007 that Argentina will crash and that the peso will reach 6 pesos to the dollar and none of these predictions have come to pass.

A crash will not happen in Argentina in the next years and less likely than ever due to many factors too numerous too publish in a small post. Argentinas economy and management of its economy is on solid footing and the predictions for 2011 and 2012 are with very solid growth and a strengthening of the Argentine peso. Prices for all commodities are expected to rise substantially in coming years meaning that property prices will rise accordingly as they are interconnected .

If you look at the local stock market and the incredible amount of purchases being made in Capital Federal the chances are that the dinner you have today in Puerto Madero for US 50 per person will be US 100 and up in 2012.

 

[dr__dawggy]

I find these posts offensive about Argentina crashing as they always come across with the feeling of hope that things can be very cheap again so that some tourists can buy 3 dollar dinners and apartments in Recoleta will be less than US 1000 per metre. Do these people ever think about the small person who has lost his business and his savings due to engineered financial crisises caused by corrupt governments in cohorts with international bankers . This is a common occurrence that has plagued western societies for the last 200 years and we the people need to understand that and try to work together to have honest governments who work for the common good of their people. There is no perfect government I am very aware of that but I do believe that Argentina currently has a better government than we have had for a long time .

Many have been saying since 2007 that Argentina will crash and that the peso will reach 6 pesos to the dollar and none of these predictions have come to pass.

A crash will not happen in Argentina in the next years and less likely than ever due to many factors too numerous too publish in a small post. Argentinas economy and management of its economy is on solid footing and the predictions for 2011 and 2012 are with very solid growth and a strengthening of the Argentine peso. Prices for all commodities are expected to rise substantially in coming years meaning that property prices will rise accordingly as they are interconnected .

If you look at the local stock market and the incredible amount of purchases being made in Capital Federal the chances are that the dinner you have today in Puerto Madero for US 50 per person will be US 100 and up in 2012.

There is a difference between a market cycle, with inevitable ups and downs, and a crash; just as there is a distinction between a recession and a depression. Argentina has had predictable up and down cycles every 7-10 years for decades. The 200l/02 crash was a true crash.Other down cycles have been less severe.

I doubt that many expats would wish for a repeat of 01/02....but it is prudent investing strategy to buy during periods when the market is down rather than over priced. It is naive of you to expect that the price of real estate, gold or stocks or any other commodity will go forward in a straight line and foolish of investors to buy without looking for inevitable retreats in market price.

It is ironic that you promote yourself as a buyers agent. It sounds like you are an advocate for sellers, with a view toward assuring that they receive a hefty profit for their apartment or other real estate.

 

[earlyretirement]

I totally agree with Dr__dawggy when he says that no expats repeat a wish of 2001/2002. I don't think that any normal person hopes for large masses of people to suffer.

It's true that Argentina has a history of down cycles every 10 years or so. Some more severe than others. I don't think that will probably change.

I do agree that it is a prudent strategy to buy when the market is down however I think it's also safe to say that you don't want to try catching a falling knife. Case in point, I know many people that tried timing the bottom and buying properties in Miami Beach in 2008, 2009 and 2010 and some properties are down 70% from peak prices. Same thing in Las Vegas and Phoenix.

While I personally believe Perry seems a bit optimistic on Argentina in general (which I don't think is anything to fault....but I prefer in being realistic at all times), I do agree with him to an extent that real estate here has to be looked at not only as an "investment" but basically most locals I know use it as a piggy bank. I also know lots of locals that tried to diversify and bought properties in the USA over the past few years and they have gotten absolutely crushed, especially in Miami. They are figuring out that real estate in other places around the world are really tough to truly value and bringing their funds back into Argentina which sounds a bit funny.

The reason is because it's hard to truly value real estate in the USA with the shadow inventory and an estimated 7 to 10 million homes that will still get foreclosed in in the next few years. The situation in Buenos Aires, even for those that think it's expensive.... and you can't argue with is that the market here is essentially all 100% cash (For 2009 it was 7.01% of the total transactions..so far for 2010 it's 6.18% of the transactions). Mortgages are very rare here and even when they do have them it's 50% down payment over shorter periods of time. So as a common sense investor you have to realize the market is dynamic here and prices are truly or fairly valued when it's essentially 100% cash. When you can't leverage like other places around the world you have to keep that in mind.

I do agree with dr__dawggy that NO investments move in a straight line (up or down) forever. I don't care whether you are talking about real estate, gold, stocks and other "paper". Things fluctuate. And as an intelligent investor you have to realize that during these times of fluctuations is when you can and should make the most amount of money.

 

[gouchobob]

There is a difference between a market cycle, with inevitable ups and downs, and a crash; just as there is a distinction between a recession and a depression. Argentina has had predictable up and down cycles every 7-10 years for decades. The 200l/02 crash was a true crash.Other down cycles have been less severe.

I doubt that many expats would wish for a repeat of 01/02....but it is prudent investing strategy to buy during periods when the market is down rather than over priced. It is naive of you to expect that the price of real estate, gold or stocks or any other commodity will go forward in a straight line and foolish of investors to buy without looking for inevitable retreats in market price.

I think you are on the right track with your investing strategy. The last few years has certainly debunked the notion that real estate always goes up, sounds pretty silly today. I'm not a big fan of investing in real estate today as I believe it is still over valued in most places around the world. I think the next 10 years or so is not going to kind to those who put their money into real estate. I can understand someone buying a property that pays rents and provides a return. I don't understand people who buy solely on the expectation the price is going up, this has always sounded like speculating and not investing to me. In Argentina you are in a market that experiences a lot of significant ups and downs and timing is very important.

 

[perry]

There is a difference between a market cycle, with inevitable ups and downs, and a crash; just as there is a distinction between a recession and a depression. Argentina has had predictable up and down cycles every 7-10 years for decades. The 200l/02 crash was a true crash.Other down cycles have been less severe.

I doubt that many expats would wish for a repeat of 01/02....but it is prudent investing strategy to buy during periods when the market is down rather than over priced. It is naive of you to expect that the price of real estate, gold or stocks or any other commodity will go forward in a straight line and foolish of investors to buy without looking for inevitable retreats in market price.

It is ironic that you promote yourself as a buyers agent. It sounds like you are an advocate for sellers, with a view toward assuring that they receive a hefty profit for their apartment or other real estate.

You are obsessed with my posts and need to constantly reply to them . Are you gay ?

 

[earlyretirement]

I think you are on the right track with your investing strategy. The last few years has certainly debunked the notion that real estate always goes up, sounds pretty silly today. I'm not a big fan of investing in real estate today as I believe it is still over valued in most places around the world. I think the next 10 years or so is not going to kind to those who put their money into real estate. I can understand someone buying a property that pays rents and provides a return. I don't understand people who buy solely on the expectation the price is going up, this has always sounded like speculating and not investing to me. In Argentina you are in a market that experiences a lot of significant ups and downs and timing is very important.

Absolutely there was too much speculation in real estate all over the world. It's severe speculation when banks don't make you put much down payment and you aren't living in the home and don't understand simple fundamentals of cash flow.

I believe now more than ever you really need to be careful with real estate unless you are going to be living in the property indefinitely. And even then many times it makes sense to rent vs. buy.

But you shouldn't buy simply for the misguided rationale that "real estate always goes up" because it clearly doesn't. And you can't try to catch a falling knife.

You have to really know and understand what you are doing. And even then you can see real estate fall quickly in a short period of time. Case in point, back in April 2010 I just started looking at acquiring real estate in the USA after waiting from the sidelines and watching it fall dramatically the past few years. My first property I looked at adding was in Plano, Texas (an affluent Northern suburb of Dallas). This was back in April 2010. The asking price on a large 5 bedroom nice property in a nice area was $340,000. This was before the home housing credit expired.

I made an all cash offer of $300,000 on the house and the seller's realtor rejected it saying they already rejected offers at $300,000 and $308,000. I told them good luck but the market was going to fall back down once the first time home buyer's credit ended. Both the seller and the sellers Realtor were in severe denial. Fast forward to October 2010 and the realtor emailed me a few weeks ago saying the price has dropped down to $287,000 and asking if I'm still interested. A $52,000 decrease all in a few months on a home with an asking price of only $340,000. Do the math on the %.

This is just one real life example of how fast real estate can fall if you don't understand it. Even in relatively non-bubble areas like Dallas that didn't experience big price increases.

 

[dr__dawggy]

You are obsessed with my posts and need to constantly reply to them . Are you gay?

No, I am not gay, but your comment does raise the question: Why do you hate gay people?

I reply to your posts because of your Kirchner worship (he saved Argentina and united South America) and your air of moral superiority and condescension (people who disagree with you are "vultures" or otherwise morally inferior rather than politically mistaken), and especially your criticism of another poster for his alleged support of right wing dictatorships while you ignore or express support for left wing dictatorships.


Curiously enough, I joined this forum to respond to a totally different thread. I had no intention of involving myself in threads such as this....but I admit you pushed my buttons.

 

[perry]

No, I am not gay, but your comment does raise the question: Why do you hate gay people?

I reply to your posts because of your Kirchner worship (he saved Argentina and united South America) and your air of moral superiority and condescension (people who disagree with you are "vultures" or otherwise morally inferior rather than politically mistaken), and especially your criticism of another poster for his alleged support of right wing dictatorships while you ignore or express support for left wing dictatorships.


Curiously enough, I joined this forum to respond to a totally different thread. I had no intention of involving myself in threads such as this....but I admit you pushed my buttons.

No I Love gay people but dislike narrowminded people who pretend that they are knowledgeable about a country and society as you do . I am completely apolitical and do not support nor condone any form of controlled governments . I am written over 1100 posts I suggest that you read since you are so obsessed with me you can find out all you want about my opinions from them.

By the way the post you are referring too was written by Mark Weisbrot . Take it up with him

 

[earlyretirement]

No, I am not gay, but your comment does raise the question: Why do you hate gay people?

I reply to your posts because of your Kirchner worship (he saved Argentina and united South America) and your air of moral superiority and condescension (people who disagree with you are "vultures" or otherwise morally inferior rather than politically mistaken), and especially your criticism of another poster for his alleged support of right wing dictatorships while you ignore or express support for left wing dictatorships.


Curiously enough, I joined this forum to respond to a totally different thread. I had no intention of involving myself in threads such as this....but I admit you pushed my buttons.

Hopefully you have nothing against gay people as some of my best friends and clients are gay and I hope they don't take offense to your post.

I also joined this group from a link I found on Trip Advisor and I have to admit some of these threads are very interesting. I remember seeing this forum many years ago and I never joined because there was so much bickering and arguments.

My personal feeling is it's totally fine to have different opinions and standpoints. That is perfectly healthy and I actually like that because it's good to get others perspectives on things. The world would be a very dull place if everyone thought the same thing.

However, I've also heard from other people since joining that told me that they were banned from the board or had their access limited or removed all because they have a different opinion than a moderator. I really hope this isn't true.

I think everyone's opinion is important and no one is right or wrong but people should have the right to express their opinion on any subject as long as they are doing it with respect and back up their arguments.

This is a good forum as there seem like there are many intelligent posters here and some that really understand Argentina. The educational level seems fairly high of the posters. But I think it is good to respect people's views even if you disagree with them.

You can post intelligently and tell us why you disagree with others opinions.