PASO Election Results

antipodean

Registered
how is it bad for Alberto if Kristinas people resign? I don't understand that mental gymnastics
If they walk, he is left without the popularity or power to govern effectively - he would face overwhelming internal and external opposition. Things explode and his only option is a helicopter escape from the Casa Rosada a la De La Rua 2001.

Now, even with the simple "offer" of their resignation:
  • Loose the elections in NOV, it is all evil Alberto's fault as public enemy number one with no K's to back him up.
  • Win the elections in NOV, it is all thanks to CFK and her "humility" in the face of uncompromising Alberto.
Either way, Alberto would be a write-off unless he gives them a scape-goat of his own (e.g. chief of cabinet, education or economy etc.) that would result in him having even less power than he has today. And guess who takes his place if he does not make it until the end of his term and who also stands to gain by having even more influence over the executive...

On the other hand, if he is clever enough to muster up the popularity and political support he could flip the situation to deal a death blow to the K's by taking them up on their offer and excluding them from the executive - but that would be a declaration of war and too whimsical to imagine right now.
 

MilHojas

Registered
 
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Alpinista

Registered
If they walk, he is left without the popularity or power to govern effectively - he would face overwhelming internal and external opposition. Things explode and his only option is a helicopter escape from the Casa Rosada a la De La Rua 2001.

Now, even with the simple "offer" of their resignation:
  • Loose the elections in NOV, it is all evil Alberto's fault as public enemy number one with no K's to back him up.
  • Win the elections in NOV, it is all thanks to CFK and her "humility" in the face of uncompromising Alberto.
Either way, Alberto would be a write-off unless he gives them a scape-goat of his own (e.g. chief of cabinet, education or economy etc.) that would result in him having even less power than he has today. And guess who takes his place if he does not make it until the end of his term and who also stands to gain by having even more influence over the executive...

On the other hand, if he is clever enough to muster up the popularity and political support he could flip the situation to deal a death blow to the K's by taking them up on their offer and excluding them from the executive - but that would be a declaration of war and too whimsical to imagine right now.
I agree that they can make life impossible for Alberto now, even forcing him out of the office.

But I don't think it is that simple for the Ks now. They are a party / fraction that attracts between 15% and 20% of the population for now. So for now the K need Alberto as much as he needs them. And I don't think that Alberto comes out of his corner by simply sacking Cafiero and / or Guzman.

What is true though: at the moment it would certainly be a good time to be in the opposition and to win over the poor masses. So probably they are thinking ahead already in 2023 (or even 2027) and trying to build up Maximo. On the other hand that would mean to give up power for now. And whether that would serve Kristina now with all the legal problems she is dealing with is another question.

Interesting times ahead.
 

sts7049

Registered
but couldn't Alberto just appoint his own replacements? therefore putting more of his people in those positions?
 

sts7049

Registered
so...what you're saying is with only the 20% he won't be able to even finalize the appointments. because the opposition will be able to challenge or resist them. i see.

if alberto were smart, he would take their resignations and make friends with the other side. obviously the other side would be in favor of less K's, so i have to think they'd want to work together. it would be the ultimate power move against Kristina haha
 

jblaze5779

Registered
so...what you're saying is with only the 20% he won't be able to even finalize the appointments. because the opposition will be able to challenge or resist them. i see.

if alberto were smart, he would take their resignations and make friends with the other side. obviously the other side would be in favor of less K's, so i have to think they'd want to work together. it would be the ultimate power move against Kristina haha
And then Alberto mysteriously shoots himself in his bathroom.
 

antipodean

Registered
I agree that they can make life impossible for Alberto now, even forcing him out of the office.

But I don't think it is that simple for the Ks now. They are a party / fraction that attracts between 15% and 20% of the population for now. So for now the K need Alberto as much as he needs them. And I don't think that Alberto comes out of his corner by simply sacking Cafiero and / or Guzman.

What is true though: at the moment it would certainly be a good time to be in the opposition and to win over the poor masses. So probably they are thinking ahead already in 2023 (or even 2027) and trying to build up Maximo. On the other hand that would mean to give up power for now. And whether that would serve Kristina now with all the legal problems she is dealing with is another question.

Interesting times ahead.
I think it is the Ks acting like sore losers, pulling the plug on a round they cannot possible win and "walking away" now so that they have a chance to make new "enemies" ("ah pero, Alberto" / "ah pero, opposition in Deputados"), stir up public emotion and re-brand for 2023 to continue their grip on power keeping the queen-bee and her family safe until 2027. Until then, even with an impotent Alberto, with CFK in the vice seat and Maximo in office, they have the immunity, influence and power they need for basic survival. If Alberto fails and needs to step down, they continue the mandate anyway as calling new elections is not mandatory. Two years is a long time in Argentina...

Regardless (unless Alberto has a trick up his sleeve to turn the tables...) the problem is Alberto and the saviours are (or will be) the Ks and in the middle, a political opportunist like Massa who could go either way and also needs a block of votes other than his own to survive. A blatant liar and hypocrite like Alberto probably does not have the street-cred to offer him a winning formula at the moment as do an extremist block of bought and brain washed voters.
 

Alpinista

Registered
I think it is the Ks acting like sore losers, pulling the plug on a round they cannot possible win and "walking away" now so that they have a chance to make new "enemies" ("ah pero, Alberto" / "ah pero, opposition in Deputados"), stir up public emotion and re-brand for 2023 to continue their grip on power keeping the queen-bee and her family safe until 2027. Until then, even with an impotent Alberto, with CFK in the vice seat and Maximo in office, they have the immunity, influence and power they need for basic survival. If Alberto fails and needs to step down, they continue the mandate anyway as calling new elections is not mandatory. Two years is a long time in Argentina...

Regardless (unless Alberto has a trick up his sleeve to turn the tables...) the problem is Alberto and the saviours are (or will be) the Ks and in the middle, a political opportunist like Massa who could go either way and also needs a block of votes other than his own to survive. A blatant liar and hypocrite like Alberto probably does not have the street-cred to offer him a winning formula at the moment as do an extremist block of bought and brain washed voters.
Wouldn't it actually also be an option for Alberto to walk away now and hand over the responsibility to the Ks? After all, he has already fulfilled his lifelong dream of becoming president. And before finishing his 4 year mandate and going down as the worst president in Argentina's history, he probably prefers to call it a day now (and putting the blame on Macri, IMF, Covid, the Ks and even his wife).

I think there is a real possibility that he will just do that, even not the most probable one, I admit.
 
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