Seriously Thinking Of Retiring In Ba

[sergio]

Not Quite . The peso vis-a-vis the dollar IS NOT devaluing! its almost pegged at $15 pesos or so. Prices do go up 30 % or more per annum, so in the next 2 years your fixed dollar income buying power will be reduced by One-Half .... Like a 50 % salary cut..!! If the dollar stays flat. If the floods of dollars expected come in !! the Peso may revalue against the Dollar..!

We may be back to the 1995 scenario where B.A.was the most expensive city in the World.

That is a myth. It was never the most expensive city in the world. I was here then. Property was quite cheap, especially relative to wages which were decent by international standards. If the current policy persists, however, Argentina is going to be a very expensive country. I don't know what Macri is thinking. Who knows -- CFK may return and she will reverse every Macri policy EXCEPT FOR tax and utility increases. Those will stay.

 

[Ries]

I think its giving Macri a bit too much credit to assume that what happens with For-EX is a result of what he is thinking.
There are some things the government can do to affect the exchange rate- but mostly, they cost money. A lot of money.
One of the problems with the last adminstration was the fact that they were propping up the exchange rate with tens of millions of dollars a year, and they were borrowing that money.
One of the problems today, is paying back those loans, many of which were hidden in fancy accounting.

the peso/dollar rate will respond to world commodity prices, world economic trends, Mercosur countries and their own difficulties, emotional mood swings, and government policy.
but not JUST government policy.

 

[sergio]

I find it hard to believe that free market forces are determining the exchange rate. 15-1 is completely unrealistic.

 

[Rich One]

I find it hard to believe that free market forces are determining the exchange rate. 15-1 is completely unrealistic.

So was the 1:1 dollar rate that lasted for more then 10 years...! Menem also borrowed extensively leading to default...!! Exports will suffer and the Miami saying"Deme Dos" is back .

Seems Trolls in the Forum are gone..? no more fears.

 

[Ries]

I find it hard to believe that free market forces are determining the exchange rate. 15-1 is completely unrealistic.

"free markets" dont exist anywhere on earth- there are always government forces that affect the "free market".
and "realistic" is pretty undefinable.

World events can, and do, affect foreign exchange rates, but we know that the Argentine government has, over the years, spent literally hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars supporting the peso.

I am just saying that Macri is unwilling to borrow the amount of money it will take to support the 15 to 1 indefinitely, and therefore, it is not 100% controlled by the whim of Macri.
Other unforseen factors could pop up tommorow that would change it, but I am pretty sure that even without world cataclysm, its gonna slide to a more "realistic" rate on its own, regardless of what Macri does or does not do.