What exactly is their Plan. Lockdown till vaccine?

[Alby]

Very true ...It took 5 months from early March with 100 infection level to late August with over 10,000 infections per day. ! the curve May peak in September so assuming the curve is symmetric it will take another 6 months to be at 100 infections per day . That means March 2020..!! OMG

In the absence of any of the strategies being used in countries where the spread is being controlled, I see no reason to believe the curve will be symetric. By March it could well still be at 10,000 per day, or higher.

 

[Rich One]

In the absence of any of the strategies being used in countries where the spread is being controlled, I see no reason to believe the curve will be symetric. By March it could well still be at 10,000 per day, or higher.

Well that's another theory I'm no statistician , but as you say may well be over 10.000 per day in March.
My crystal ball is as good as any other..! the herd theory may apply and some of us will survive..!

 

[Alby]

Here's something to think about. If the virus infects 10,000 per day, that's 300,000 per month, and around 4.5 million in the next 12 months. Little more than 10% of the population of the country. Herd immunity, it is ever comes into play, could be several years away.

We are neither statisticians nor virulogists. But I have to ask myself: without any measures to contain it other than masks and social distancing, why wouldn't the virus just keep going and going at the same rates, or higher?

On the positive side, it does seem to have settled at around 1200 per day here in CABA.

 

[on the brink]

Most of my acquaintances plan to summer in their own homes. We seem to have accepted that things will not change much in the next six months or so.

 

[Brit_In_BA]

Here's something to think about. If the virus infects 10,000 per day, that's 300,000 per month, and around 4.5 million in the next 12 months. Little more than 10% of the population of the country. Herd immunity, it is ever comes into play, could be several years away.

We are neither statisticians nor virulogists. But I have to ask myself: without any measures to contain it other than masks and social distancing, why wouldn't the virus just keep going and going at the same rates, or higher?

On the positive side, it does seem to have settled at around 1200 per day here in CABA.

Herd immunity may be a bit closer than we think. I was in Buenos Aires last year and in October I am 100% certain I had the virus. Dreadful cough for about 4 weeks, sky high fever, muscle aches and one symptom I’ve only ever heard of with Covid, loss of sense of taste and smell, which lasted for about 3 weeks. Each symptom came after the other, i was probably ill for about 7/8 weeks in total. Was very close to going to the hospital as I suspected I had bronchitis or possibly some mild form of pneumonia. Harvard university found that Chinese hospital car parks were packed full in August and people were googling symptoms of corona there. I think potentially 10,000 people (probably more) could’ve been getting infected every day in Argentina since around October time, especially as around then social distancing and hand hygiene were non existent for most people.

 

[Alby]

I also read that once the symptoms of coronvirus become well known, many New Yorkers reported that they had experienced weird flus in November and December with these same characteristics. Funny you report this experience: for my part, on 20 January I passed through Melbourne airport busy with incoming flights from China (six days later they shut down those flights) and 16 days later came down with a very unusual gripe which took a while to shake. And several weeks later my toes went red and swollen, which I subsequently read is an (often delayed) symptom or side effect (Covid toe). It made me wonder, as does the information now about your October experience; it made me think of another nasty flu I had late last year here and, consulting my medical notes, I now see I was down the whole of November with a particularly nasty episode. I suppose I should get an antibody test, although both potential bouts are now months in the past. It would be interesting to know, although it wouldn't change anything, given that it is far from clear that people can't be reinfected.

 

[Brit_In_BA]

I also read that once the symptoms of coronvirus become well known, many New Yorkers reported that they had experienced weird flus in November and December with these same characteristics. Funny you report this experience: for my part, on 20 January I passed through Melbourne airport busy with incoming flights from China (six days later they shut down those flights) and 16 days later came down with a very unusual gripe which took a while to shake. And several weeks later my toes went red and swollen, which I subsequently read is an (often delayed) symptom or side effect (Covid toe). It made me wonder, as does the information now about your October experience; it made me think of another nasty flu I had late last year here and, consulting my medical notes, I now see I was down the whole of November with a particularly nasty episode. I suppose I should get an antibody test, although both potential bouts are now months in the past. It would be interesting to know, although it wouldn't change anything, given that it is far from clear that people can't be reinfected.

Funny, around the time of being ill my little toe on my right foot swelled up to about 3 times it’s usual size, itched like crazy and was bright red. Went to the hospital and they said it was just cellulitis, but now I wonder if that was covid toe

 

[Alby]

Hah! Exactly. Three of my toes went red, and three others itched like crazy (and two of the itchy ones also swelled up). At no point did I Iose taste or smell though.

The first reference I saw to Covid toe was from a US article commenting that in January and February podiatrists in NYC were inundated with an (at the time) unexplained condition of red toes.

 

[jeff1234]

I too had some strange symptoms in January after being on a long flight with many people sneezing and coughing.
I'm going to get a test to see if I have the antibodies.

 

[Renzi]

I flew into BA from Santiago in Feb. If I was carrying Covid, the Dengue I caught a month later probably killed it.