What will the Dollar be worth End 2020.!

[camberiu]

This is pretty much exclusive to Argentina and Venezuela in this region.

 

[Wade K.]

Brazil has had a stable currency since 1995. Peru since 1993. That is an entire generation. Chile even longer than that. Uruguay too. Paraguay and Colombia's inflation have been in the single digits since 2000 (that is 20 years). High inflation and devaluations were the wide norm in Latin America back in the 80s and 90. That has changed significantly in many countries. Argentina today is NOT the norm, no matter how you try to spin it.

I believe Brazil has devalued quite a bit in the last year. As cheap as Argentina and Colombia now for those with hard currency incomes. Not aware of a dolar blue type situation there though.

 

[camberiu]

I believe Brazil has devalued quite a bit in the last year.

Yes, it did. It has been a very rough time for the Brazilian Real. But again, it is all a matter of perspective and what you are comparing it to. As posted by Antipodean earlier in this thread:

Example of FX change over the last 10 years of 1USD:
PEN - 2.5-> 3.6
BRL - 1.5 -> 5.6
COP - 1745 -> 3800
CLP - 456 -> 776
MXN - 11 -> 20
ARS (official) 3.8 -> 78 (or almost 200 unofficial...)

The difference here is on orders of magnitude. So you are comparing apples to oranges. No store in Brazil, big or small, accept US dollars as payment. Try to pay your bill in dollars in Brazil and people will think you are either crazy or running a scam. Most Brazilians do not know what the actual exchange rate is and they would have to look it up. There are no currency restrictions. Walk into a bank and buy as many dollars as you want and it will be cheaper than what you would get underground (if you can even find a non-official place to exchange your Reals for dollars). The only people who buy dollars in "cuevas" in Brazil are those who cannot justify the origin of their Reals.
There is no one under 43 years of age who ever experienced currency restrictions, double digit inflation, price controls or frozen bank accounts as an adult in Brazil.
Argentina is not the norm in the region.

 

[on the brink]

Today, the largest, one-thousand peso bill is worth just a little over five dollars.

 

[Alpinista]

Today, the largest, one-thousand peso bill is worth just a little over five dollars.

They could indeed skip the planned 5'000 bill and go straight to the 10'000

 

[Renzi]

Brazil has had a stable currency since 1995. Peru since 1993. That is an entire generation. Chile even longer than that. Uruguay too. Paraguay and Colombia's inflation have been in the single digits since 2000 (that is 20 years). High inflation and devaluations were the wide norm in Latin America back in the 80s and 90. That has changed significantly in many countries. Argentina today is NOT the norm, no matter how you try to spin it.

Currency stability is just one measure, political stability is almost as important according to how corporations like S&P Global assess investment risk ("in most cases, weak investment is due to uncertain domestic political dynamics"). In just the last year there has been massive unrest in Ecuador and Chile, a coup in Bolivia, a mini-coup in Peru, and evidence of a resurgence of large scale violence in Colombia. These sorts of events are the standard for Latin America. And in terms of overall economic performance, the region has continued to perform very unevenly for decades. Argentina was already in an economic downturn even before Alberto came into office.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=ZJ

 

[Alpinista]

Currency stability is just one measure, political stability is almost as important according to how corporations like S&P Global assess investment risk ("in most cases, weak investment is due to uncertain domestic political dynamics"). In just the last year there has been massive unrest in Ecuador and Chile, a coup in Bolivia, a mini-coup in Peru, and evidence of a resurgence of large scale violence in Colombia. These sorts of events are the standard for Latin America. And in terms of overall economic performance, the region has continued to perform very unevenly for decades. Argentina was already in an economic downturn even before Alberto came into office.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=ZJ

You can twist it as you like: the fact remains that Argentina is economically performing much worse than almost all other countries on the continent over the last decades.

 

[antipodean]

You can twist it as you like: the fact remains that Argentina is economically performing much worse than almost all other countries on the continent over the last decades.

Ironic as Argentina's performance over the past decades was achieved without all the civil and political unrest apparently embroiling other countries in the region... yet Argentina in 2020 remains similar or worse than it was in 1980 in terms of important development indicators like poverty. Whereas almost all other countries in the region have seen a sustained downward trend in poverty since the early 2000s, achieving significant reductions aka development, despite typical instability of GDP growth rates. Perhaps largely because their people have a currency that, comparatively speaking, holds its value and allows them to buy and save their way up the ladder.
Argentina and many of its justifiers are living in a decades old past, while selectively choosing not to see that other countries with far more serious and complicated troubles are indeed developing in spite of their troubles.

 

[QuilmesSlo]

The economic reforms Argentina needs cannot be implemented by democratic institutions. I realize this is a profoundly grave conclusion.

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

The economic reforms Argentina needs cannot be implemented by democratic institutions. I realize this is a profoundly grave conclusion.

Then let them drown.