What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

The boring answer is that Argentina doesn’t need “heroes” it needs 12 or 16 years of incremental reforms. Hard graft and all parties working together for the good of the Argentine people.

Unfortunately due to the severe structural economic problems that Argentina has I can’t see the Argentine people putting up with a government long enough to bring about the changes needed.

To overcome 40 or 50 years of a mismanaged economy in 4 years is just an impossibility.

 

[Redpossum]

The boring answer is that Argentina doesn’t need “heroes” it needs 12 or 16 years of incremental reforms. Hard graft and all parties working together for the good of the Argentine people.

Unfortunately due to the severe structural economic problems that Argentina has I can’t see the Argentine people putting up with a government long enough to bring about the changes needed.

To overcome 40 or 50 years of a mismanaged economy in 4 years is just an impossibility.

Certainly you know your history. It was indeed the dictatorship that really screwed up the economy, and things have never fully recovered.

But I would remind you all that the K paid off the IMF and got it out of the country, while Macri borrowed 43 Billion USD and issued 100-year bonds. Yes, 100 years. One shudders to imagine what the buitres will make of that in the year 2117.

Despite claims to the contrary, over the 12 years that they held the Presidency between them, Nestor & Cristina reduced Argentina's external debt steadily, year by year.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Certainly you know your history. It was indeed the dictatorship that really screwed up the economy, and things have never fully recovered.

But I would remind you all that the K paid off the IMF and got it out of the country, while Macri borrowed 43 Billion USD and issued 100-year bonds. Yes, 100 years. One shudders to imagine what the buitres will make of that in the year 2117.

Despite claims to the contrary, over the 12 years that they held the Presidency between them, Nestor & Cristina reduced Argentina's external debt steadily, year by year.

Macri’s failure is that he wanted to be a hero. Typical Argentine arrogance.

 

[earlyretirement]

The boring answer is that Argentina doesn’t need “heroes” it needs 12 or 16 years of incremental reforms. Hard graft and all parties working together for the good of the Argentine people.

Unfortunately due to the severe structural economic problems that Argentina has I can’t see the Argentine people putting up with a government long enough to bring about the changes needed.

To overcome 40 or 50 years of a mismanaged economy in 4 years is just an impossibility.

Yes this is probably one of the best posts on here I've read. It's going to be impossible for anyone. Things will get so bad that odds are whomever gets elected will probably not make it their 4 years in office.

 

[Jtee125]

I don’t know whether or not it’s naivety on my part but I would consider the presidency a poisoned chalice by any measure. I truly believe you’d have to be insane to a strong degree to even want to pursue it.

In any case, it saddens me that a country so rich in passion, culture, resources, and personality struggles so much. I don’t think I’ll ever understand the semantics and peculiarities of the Argentinian economy but, perhaps naively, I hope there’s a sensible economic path that can be carved.

From a predominantly outsider perspective, Argentina is a never-ending contradiction which is as profoundly upsetting as it is both peculiar and fascinating

 

[Jtee125]

The boring answer is that Argentina doesn’t need “heroes” it needs 12 or 16 years of incremental reforms. Hard graft and all parties working together for the good of the Argentine people.

Unfortunately due to the severe structural economic problems that Argentina has I can’t see the Argentine people putting up with a government long enough to bring about the changes needed.

To overcome 40 or 50 years of a mismanaged economy in 4 years is just an impossibility.

Would it be fair to argue that for true and huge reform, that it would be so politically unpalatable that it perhaps perpetuates the impossibility of it reasonably occurring?

However, there’s only so much road you can kick the can down, and I think that’s a problem throughout the west that for once isn’t a uniquely Argentinian issue.

 

[earlyretirement]

Would it be fair to argue that for true and huge reform, that it would be so politically unpalatable that it perhaps perpetuates the impossibility of it reasonably occurring?

However, there’s only so much road you can kick the can down, and I think that’s a problem throughout the west that for once isn’t a uniquely Argentinian issue.

Definitely big changes are needed but like another poster mentioned, Argentina is so screwed up and has been for decades so NO ONE can turn this around overnight. It's a multi-year process and things are going to be painful and get worse before they get better.

My first trip to Argentina on vacation Argentina had 5 Presidents in the span of 2 weeks! I am not joking. While it may sound fun to play the hero. Actually joking around on Tik Tok is one thing. Having millions upon millions of people desperate, starving and angry is another.

When things get bad people won't be patient and that's part of the problem. This is going to be painful no matter who wins. I don't know anyone that would want this job.

 

[Reply Guy]

Today when he said he has a blanket refusal to do any kind of business with socialists and lumped Communist China in the same category. Do you realize China is the 2nd largest buyer of Argentine exports in the world?! It provides $18 BILLION swap line with the central bank (that he is going to blow up). They use that to pay the IMF!!

He said private businesses will still do business with China. Private businesses are the ones that export to China.

He's going to align himself more to the US and Western Europe. No yuan swaps, no more Chinese military bases in the South, etc.

 

[Redpossum]

My first trip to Argentina on vacation Argentina had 5 Presidents in the span of 2 weeks! I am not joking.

If you think he's exaggerating, go here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_Argentina
You can either page down a bunch of times, or just hit Ctrl-F and type "fernando de la", but-

De La Rua resigned on December 21 2001
Ramon Puerta was President for 2 days, resigning on the 23rd
Adolfo Rodriguez Saa (of the San Luis dynasty), was President for 7 days, resigning on the 30th of December
Eduardo Camaño was President for 3 days, resigning on January 2nd
Duhalde took over on January 2nd, and lasted almost a year and a half, until 25th May 2003

So, by my reckoning, it was 5 Presidents in 12 days. Just a little historical note, and a sober reminder of what a Charlie Foxtrot this country can be when things really go south.

I love Argentina deeply and sincerely. I hope to live here for the rest of my life. But one must be realistic.

 

[sergio]

He said private businesses will still do business with China. Private businesses are the ones that export to China.

He's going to align himself more to the US and Western Europe. No yuan swaps, no more Chinese military bases in the South, etc.

So he said that the GOVERNMENT would not do business with China? That is another matter it seems to me. WHY, for example, did Argentina have to buy trains from China when Spain could have supplied them?