What Would Dollarization Mean for Expats?

Why would costs raise for Expats Specifically..?

I don't see that, I would transfer with WU and would receive dollars here minus the commision as usual.
I was simple addressing the question posed -- i.e. "What would dollarization mean for Expats."

I don't suggest you won't be able to transfer funds in -- my contention is that price levels will raise, thereby reducing purchasing power.

But I don't expect any of this to actually come to pass.
 
Dollarization will never happen. Honestly I think Milei would be a welcome change for Argentines. They FINALLY figured out that change won't happen without a drastic shift in government. Even if you hate Trump, if you look at his policies many of them were good and sound. Definitely better than Biden. I'd personally never vote for Trump but his policies were much better.

Truth of the matter is that Dollarization will never happen again. Sure, it's something that gets the average young person in Argentina excited but saying something and doing it are two different things.

I actually like many of Milei's policies and he is more pro-business. Still, unless Argentina totally blows up their employment law, labor laws, tax system, etc. etc. things won't change too much.

But many things have to change. I've never understood how a poor country like Argentina can allow all the nations in the Mercosur to come and attend University free. There will be a lot of changes that have to happen. But I wouldn't worry about dollarizing any time soon.

I actually don't know why anyone would want to be President of Argentina. It's going to be a tough tough job but I don't think he can do any worse than all the previous presidents ahead of him.
 
This seems accurate to me. I remember the 1990s here. It was not cheap. During the Menem years, especially the first term, we had quasi-dollarisation. I remember sometimes using $50 bills to pay in restaurants. It was 1-1 then. I agree that a lower standard of living will always be possible but sustaining the current priviliged status expats enjoy is not likely to go on indefinitely.
I agree with both your and Antipodean's comments. I was first in Argentina in the late 1990s and it was not cheap. I would add a few points re: dollarization and the convertibility analogy.

My understanding or recollection is that convertibility initially worked well to reduce inflation drastically together with liberalization of the economy and trade that attracted foreign investment and economic growth was impressive. This was also successfully financed by the Menem government with sale of state assets. However, in addition to surrendering control over fiscal policy by introducing the currency board, Argentina was never able to finance convertibility through the taxation system alone because the government never really tackled the informal/black market economy by eliminating market distorting subsidies/policies and reforming the tax system to bring in revenue that would be sufficient to ensure sufficient foreign reserves to support the convertibility policy.

There is a good argument that even with such reforms, sustaining the convertibility model in the long term was doomed to failure given the effect it had on making Argentine exports uncompetitive. Eventually, when the IMF stopped funding what was likely an unsustainable program in 2001, the crash was inevitable.

Convertibility was another example of an Argentine government applying a magic solution that worked for some time, longer and more successfully than most, but that contained within it the seeds of its own destruction by surrendering control over fiscal policy and attempting to insulate Argentina's economy from unavaidobale external shocks (like the Mexican, Southeast Asian and Russian currency/financial crises) occurring in the mid to late 1990s, that will inevitably impact an export oriented economy of Argentina's size.

I fear dollarization may follow a similar path; short to medium term success and long term disaster. I don't think there is a panacea to Argentina's economic woes without addressing the market distorting policies of the extensive subsidies and artificial exchange rates that have been the Kirchnerism's panacea that are similarly unsustainable in the long term as present day inflation/devaluation demonstrates.

Whether Milei's approach will address the real problems of Argentina's economy and whether the population will accept the pain of structural reform that addresses Argentina's real problems that distort its internal market and export earnings is a question I cannot answer. But I fear that "dollarization" will turn out to be another magic solution that will fail in the long term with consquences that repeat the cycle of 2001 to 2003 and then the past 20 years.
 
I experienced life during the Menem era of the Convertibility Law, where one US Dollar was equivalent to one Argentine Peso. Although Dollarization would not be quite the same, it would be near, and it would mean that the expat party would be coming to an end. Prices in Argentina would no longer be so drastically different from those of the more developed countries. Subsidies for services, gas. electricity, fuel, transportation, free health, free education, you name it, would come to an end and everything would become more expensive.
100% agree. I remember it too.
 
Would you guys reconsider moving to Argentina if you're betting on the low cost of living given these potential changes?
 
I was a kid in the 90s, and hadn't visited Argentina yet, but here is an article from 2021 that has some prices in 1996, and their prices in 2021 at the blue rate. However, the article doesn't appear to have factored in US inflation between 1996 and 2021 which would mean the prices already expensive by today's terms would be even more so.

I think what people fail to appreciate (not here, but in the broader country) is that the minimum wage wouldn't dollarize at the current exchange rate, i.e. $112.5K ARS = $160 USD, it's more likely it would sink closer to $100 USD/month, while goods and services would drastically increase in real terms as they're dollarized, and even more so for those that are subsidized, i.e. no more 11¢ subte rides or 40¢ milk. Hell, look at the current cost of rent compared to a year ago, everything is dollarized and insane, $600 for a bachelor apt in a shitty building for example.

Long story short the outcome of dollarizing is the same imo for those with dollars and those without: prices rise, wages decrease, exports are more expensive, imports are cheaper, and high inflation in dollars occurs while the market and people adjust.
 
I agree with both your and Antipodean's comments. I was first in Argentina in the late 1990s and it was not cheap. I would add a few points re: dollarization and the convertibility analogy.

My understanding or recollection is that convertibility initially worked well to reduce inflation drastically together with liberalization of the economy and trade that attracted foreign investment and economic growth was impressive. This was also successfully financed by the Menem government with sale of state assets. However, in addition to surrendering control over fiscal policy by introducing the currency board, Argentina was never able to finance convertibility through the taxation system alone because the government never really tackled the informal/black market economy by eliminating market distorting subsidies/policies and reforming the tax system to bring in revenue that would be sufficient to ensure sufficient foreign reserves to support the convertibility policy.

There is a good argument that even with such reforms, sustaining the convertibility model in the long term was doomed to failure given the effect it had on making Argentine exports uncompetitive. Eventually, when the IMF stopped funding what was likely an unsustainable program in 2001, the crash was inevitable.

Convertibility was another example of an Argentine government applying a magic solution that worked for some time, longer and more successfully than most, but that contained within it the seeds of its own destruction by surrendering control over fiscal policy and attempting to insulate Argentina's economy from unavaidobale external shocks (like the Mexican, Southeast Asian and Russian currency/financial crises) occurring in the mid to late 1990s, that will inevitably impact an export oriented economy of Argentina's size.

I fear dollarization may follow a similar path; short to medium term success and long term disaster. I don't think there is a panacea to Argentina's economic woes without addressing the market distorting policies of the extensive subsidies and artificial exchange rates that have been the Kirchnerism's panacea that are similarly unsustainable in the long term as present day inflation/devaluation demonstrates.

Whether Milei's approach will address the real problems of Argentina's economy and whether the population will accept the pain of structural reform that addresses Argentina's real problems that distort its internal market and export earnings is a question I cannot answer. But I fear that "dollarization" will turn out to be another magic solution that will fail in the long term with consquences that repeat the cycle of 2001 to 2003 and then the past 20 years.

I lived here through the Menem years. As I recall, Menem wanted the constitution changed to allow him to have a third term. I believe he spent heavily in the provinces to get support for a constitutional change. Also one of the deterrents to attracting investment here is labour law which strongly favours employees, results in very high indemnisation costs and forces many employers to pay employees under the table. When De La Rua took office the economy was unraveling and provinces could not pay their bills, so they began printing scrip which was a way of getting around the convertability law but must have been illegal. These measures were to avoid dealing with fundamental problems such as the high number of government employees and expenditures. If dollarisation were to be implemented it would have to be done with fundamental reforms and it could not be done overnight.
 
14 August 2023....Diana Mondino, economist and Diputada Nacional candidate for Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza, appeared tonight
on TN's "Una Vuelta Mas". She explained how the economy could be dolarized and Milei's plan for the ARG Central Bank. It was easier to comprehend more so than when Milei was asked the same questions when interviewed in other programs.

LinkedIn....Diana Mondino
https://ar.linkedin.com › dmondino
Argentina · Bodegas Bianchi
Experienced Manager, with interest in finance and economic issues. Former Standard & Poor's Head and Managing Director for Latin America.


Yesterday I did not vote for Milei and do not intend to do so in October.
 
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