When Will The Peso Hit 10?

[khairyexpat]

Damn. I was sure it was today at 3:34 pm! I need a new crystal ball! This one sucks. Plus, I can hardly see anything through all that fake snow!

Y O U S U R E D I D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bajo_cero2]

I'm not endorsing the economic model of the current gov't.

I was just trying to say that the currency controls have limited capital flight and preserved reserves for the time being, however they are just masking a far larger problem...at best they are buying some time.

The government is buying time until YPF can satisfy the internal need of oil and gas. If they acchieve that, the commerce deficit produced by the importation of energy is over and, with it, the restriction to imports and dollars.

 

[cbonanni]

The government is buying time until YPF can satisfy the internal need of oil and gas. If they acchieve that, the commerce deficit produced by the importation of energy is over and, with it, the restriction to imports and dollars.

If it were only so simple.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Check this out:
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/m1/1553738-el-pais-importa-cada-vez-mas-gas-y-mas-caro-en-2012-gasto-casi-us-4700-millones
The source is La Nacion.

 

[Rich One]

The government is buying time until YPF can satisfy the internal need of oil and gas. If they acchieve that, the commerce deficit produced by the importation of energy is over and, with it, the restriction to imports and dollars.

Without masive foreign investment it will take ten years to close the energy gap, optimistically

 

[cbonanni]

Bajo,

If it were only so simple. There is a large number of problems with the Argentine economy. Cutting fuel imports would certainly help. But where is YPF going to find the resources (money!) to invest in making this happen ? A joint venture here , or fracking partnership there , sell a few bonds below the inflation rate , will not do it. They do not have the refining capability , experience , or frankly , the ability to make this happen.

To state that that would "fix" the import restrictions and parallel exchange rate is simply looking through your rose colored glasses. It will take a hell of a lot more than that to "fix" this economy.

As for La Nacion , it can be a fine resource for information. But you have to be realistic , and check other sources of information , to be able to make an intelligent opinion of any given subject.

 

[Rich One]

Bajo,

If it were only so simple. There is a large number of problems with the Argentine economy. Cutting fuel imports would certainly help. But where is YPF going to find the resources (money!) to invest in making this happen ? A joint venture here , or fracking partnership there , sell a few bonds below the inflation rate , will not do it. They do not have the refining capability , experience , or frankly , the ability to make this happen.

To state that that would "fix" the import restrictions and parallel exchange rate is simply looking through your rose colored glasses. It will take a hell of a lot more than that to "fix" this economy.

As for La Nacion , it can be a fine resource for information. But you have to be realistic , and check other sources of information , to be able to make an intelligent opinion of any given subject.

yeap... look what happened with the Shale Oil /Gas Projects and Chevron investment, no where near closing...! Believe me to get those fields into production is a Major technological challenge and Costly for long term development.

 

[JoeGillis]

Rich One,
"...long term development." And this is one of the major setbacks for this country to go forward - an almost total lack of any long term development, whether it be the public or private sector. I sometimes get the feeling that people here simply don't want to be bothered with long term planning and development.

 

[Ceviche]

For once, i dont agree with bajo cero's post.

well replied, cbonanni

 

[Joe]

There's too much of a chance for nationalization for any foreign oil company to invest in exploration and production. Usually when a country is indulging in socialist fairy tales, production rates decline.

The only course open is for the government to crack down on the dollar market. The path ahead has already been mapped out by Venezuela. Socialism with an iron fist.