Another CFK Corralito

elclandestino said:
Official politics and who's in power are absolutely irrelevant!

What matters is social and economical system, society's values, etc.
Personality cults are very much of a 3rd world trait!

Top guys are all about getting richer. They couldn't care less about you or me

Hard work, education and enterprise are the key

Well said!!!!!

Unfortunately, for most Argentines honesty, respect for others and hard work are underrated. What is worse, corruption is tolerated widely and people are convinced that you cannot go anywhere without bending the rules.

Education is the key, as you say.
 
Katzp, you're very cavalIer about the debt issue. You sound a lot like the K's on this subject.

Yes, conventional wisdom says countries and individuals should prioritize debt repayment when getting their financial house in order. It's one of those funny things....few will loan defaulters money again nor will they want to do business with you or respect you. And no man, or country, is an island. In a global economy, any country with large defaults will suffer. Notice how loathe others are to follow this "successful" model.


We just won't pay our bills so we can prosper? Hey, maybe I'll try that!
 
My last thought for a while: Word on the street is that the government is about to renegotiate its remaining debt with the Paris Club, so it'll likely have access to credit markets soon enough, albeit at very high interest rates.

When Kirchner assumed office, Argentina had already defaulted; he didn't make the choice. Instead, he was faced with essentially two options:

One, follow the IMF's rules and stick to an austere budget in order to pay creditors back in a way consistent with past defaults like Russia and Jamaica. In a best-case scenario, have fast growth of the sort Argentina had in the 90s--tons of foreign direct investment, lots of gain for some, virtually no state support for the large number of people left in the cold, few investments in infrastructure or education.

Two, pay back the IMF but drive a very hard bargain with other creditors, pursue a heterodox recovery that eschewed foreign investment but according to any social indicator delivered fantastic results for the overwhelming majority of Argentines, and amass a huge trade surplus and the largest foreign currency reserves in the country's history, with the downside that Argentina will ultimately pay much higher interest rates for the privilege of further indebting itself in the future.

If I sound like the Kirchners on this subject (and I promise that on most others, I don't), it's because I believe that they absolutely made the right choice.
 
I don't actually disagree with the idea of spending your way out (to an extent).

What I do have issue with however, is what have they done or haven't done with this money to create a sustainable, growing economy. There needs to be growth in all sectors of the economy. They have made it VERY difficult for small/medium sized businesses to grow. I have yet to see infastructure really improving besides what the city of Buenos Aires is doing which would not only improve living standards, people would learn new skills and have gainful employement. I don't see businesses taking off or flourishing. I don't even see public universities receiving windfalls and educating the next generation of potential entrepeneurs.

So what happens is soy sales slow down? I'm asking a serious question. What is going to continue fueling Argentina's growth?
 
citygirl said:
So what happens is soy sales slow down? I'm asking a serious question. What is going to continue fueling Argentina's growth?

The answer is quite simple....the whole "model" dies ! this model is sustained on all that money and the amount of votes they can get with it... Also, they are spending billions of dls every year on welfare plan of every sort, actually, the amount of money spent on this grew in the last few years from 4,5 billions aprox to 80 billions aprox :S ...the stability of this country relies on all those poor ppl being able to eat every day......a huge junk of all this money comes from soy...if soy price goes down significantly and they cant pay all that subsidy money....the 2001 crisis (i remember, i was actually there on the streets) would be a day in the park ! there would be serious rioting and worse....sounds fatalistic, but that´s how we local are in general....today i love you cuz you put moneys in my hand..tomorrow, you take away that money and i will hate you !!
 
katzp339 said:
I have no intention of defending everything the government does--in fact, I wouldn't even characterize myself as pro-government. What I do maintain is that Argentina has achieved remarkable successes in the past 8 years.

No it hasnt....
*we have the same infrastructure we had in the 90s
*we citizens still do not have the possiblity of get credits for, say, buy our own home....
*Inflation is actually extremaly worse than in the 90´s....a very small portion of the population actually dont mind...ppl working on areas with very strong (and only if they are friends with the gvnmt) unions get 30% raise yearly and also ppl working on government agencies in any level (the other day run into an old friend from college and she told me she just landed a job in the Anses.....im set for life she told me..when i asked her how much she was getting paid she refused to tell me out of shame..of course i didnt insist..she´s actually a nice gal....)
i work legally in the computer industry and my raise (and that of everyone or most everyone in thsi industry as well) was somewhere between 3 and 6 % yearly.........of course our salary, thanks to inflation, now adays is worth crap......and of course, i would believe this would go without saying, but the POOR ppl in this country...inflation kills them...
*Corruption is way worse than in the 90´s (if you asked me this question 10 years ago i would´ve said menem was the most corrupted president in our history and would´ve thought we would never have any president as corrupted in the future......of course i was deadly wrong :S
*Villas have increased exponencially compared to the 90´s......as you mentioned, of course, there´s much more ppls coming from bordering countries...there´s no such thing as border control and plus they come here and instantly they have money on their pockets and free health and education....but also villa´s population has increased because many locals from provicnes (specially from the north) had no choice but to move out of their lands and their only choice in the cities was the villa !! another situation waaay worse than in the 90´s (local econmies in the provincies is pretty much dead...there´s no such thing as the notion of working legally in a business or company..you either work for the governent or you work under the table a shitty job....or, of course....you dont work at all !! :S ...this happens in many many provincies, specially in norhthern ones..same provincies where incidently kirchnerismo won but 70 to 80 %....i guess clientism is the only thriving industry in these areas (well, actually all through the country)
*there´s more ppl than in the 90´s that still does not have access to electricity and potable water or sewers.......
*during this decade....Congress seized to exist, it wasnt so in the 90´s
*also INDED seized to exist...before this decade, this agency had excellent reputation....absolutaly no one, on any party or ideology would even consider refuting INDEC´s numbers..of course, it was an indepente agency and would alwasy show the true figures, regardless who was president.
* the existance of 6,7,8 ..needless to explain the obsenity is this K propaganda agency being paid with everyone´s money :S ...same with futbol para todos, aeorilineas argentinas on so many others.
* lack of justice, specially towards corrupted polititians...well, in this regard is the same as the 90´s.....nestor´s case on not being able to justify all his millions...not guilty......skanska overprices corruption case....no one is guilty..the case was just closed....menem and the weapons traffiking.....not guilty .....money being brought from venezuela....no one saw anything.........jaime....with yaghts and ferraris and millions (like every other kirchnerista 1st level politician)....case on standy ....untill the year 2087 :S

im tired of typing.....anyways, i know your angle means well and you are being constructive and positive, but pls keep in mind that statements like "Argentina has achieved remarkable successes in the past 8 years" are an insult to millions of argentinians who are having a very rought time, because of these past 8 years (also money before this decade, but the past 8 years did not help either)

katzp339 said:
Rather than predicting doom, let's wait for it to happen. Then--assuming it's worse than the slowdown in U.S. media darlings like Brazil and Chile--the many strident naysayers of this forum can all say "I told you so." Until this occurs, you should recognize that you're joining a long list of people who've been prematurely foretelling disaster for more than eight years--and that's just a historical fact.

again, the oh so wonderfull argentina you see does not exist, not even close....doom has already gotten here, prediction of passed events is not really prediction at all......already knowing what happend these past 8 years, ppl are just assuming the worse in the future...after all, they promised on their campaign that they would deepen the model..so, expecting and preparing for the worse does not sound so crazy but rather realistic !
 
@jazrgz excellent, well done!

K people: Please refute item by item with facts so we all may learn something.
 
Commodities could be and are a great kickstart / bootstrap. But they don't make sustainable growth. Look at Russia and Dubai ten years ago and now

Commodities earned money must be used to support education, enterprise, infrastructure and welfare. Just what Canada and Norway are doing
 
Really? The 1990s? I don´t need to say too much about it. Simply go to any corner in any city of the country (outside Recoleta and Anillaco) and scream "The 1990s were great, I want Carlos M*n*m back!" and wait for the passersby to punch you in the face.
 
90's sucked. But nowadays it's even worse. There is a lot less of financial buffer to fall back on

At least Menem was building something in 90's and country was more open to the world
 
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