Argentina Primary Election Scenario Analysis

[gracielle]

13 August 2023

Sorpresa: Milei se impone en las PASO, Bullrich gana la interna de JxC y Unión por la Patria queda tercero

Argentina vota en primarias a los candidatos que participarán de las elecciones generales del 22 de octubre. Patricia Bullrich y Horacio Rodríguez Larreta definen la interna de Juntos por el Cambio y Sergio Massa y Juan Grabois la de Unión por la Patria. Seguí el minuto a minuto y las últimas...

www.cronista.com

Martin Lousteau acknowledged defeat. At 10:50pm national senator Martín Lousteau acknowledged the victory of Jorge Macri, whom he congratulated for the election and thanked his voters. "There are a lot of things that are pending. We know that there is a lot pending in education policy, health and in the huge inequality between the north and the south."We need it to be an increasingly fairer city."....

 

[Rich One]

Massa as Ministro/candidate will take economic measures $ to favor his campaign ..! with taxpayers money..?

 

[carride]

Wells Fargo updated analysis this morning

Wells Fargo - Argentina Presidential Election Scenario Analysis

wellsfargo.bluematrix.com

 

[earlyretirement]

Wells Fargo updated analysis this morning

Wells Fargo - Argentina Presidential Election Scenario Analysis

wellsfargo.bluematrix.com

Yep. Basically Wells Fargo and anyone else out there with any financial expertise is saying Dollarization would never happen. You have to go backwards and figure out how they would do it and it would never happen.

I would totally vote for Melei for the one fact that he wants to totally blow up the totally crazy employment laws. Whether people will want to admit it or not, I think a vast majority of Argentines are lazy. They are going to be in the shock of their lifetime if labor laws are changed. His pro-business outlook is refreshing and I think if the laws are changed, most of the people voting for him will come to reality on a lot of issues.

Most people have hit such rock bottom they figure and acknowledge that things have to change.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

1. If the Oficialism receives preferences over 50%, Monday the dollar goes way up?
2. If the Opposition gets over 60 % combined, Monday the dollar drops 5 pesos?

Seems the market fears Milei…

 

[antipodean]

Seems the market fears Milei…

The markets fear that Massa and Patty are also sitting on near 30%, and another 30% of the voting population didn’t participate in the PASO…

In the meantime those billions of dollars Massa is borrowing from the IMF are being pumped in to keeping the official and parallel dollars artificially lower until October - meaning after the elections and those billions have dried up, it explodes again, and it is unclear who (and thus how) will clean up the mess. As a result and in the meantime the best thing for any Argentine business to do is nothing, be as unproductive as possible - don’t hire, don’t invest, don’t buy, don’t sell until you have an idea what the next few years are going to look like and what you’re going to get paid.