CFK to Run for Reelection ‘One More Time’

[nikad]

I don't if you are reading about the concerns of slowing growth in the world right now including emerging countries.

One growth forecast for Argentina next year is 4.3% according to the article below.

http://thecitizen.co.tz/editorial-analysis/-/12216-argentina-president-may-face-stormy-second-term

There is also the wide-spread belief among many that the growth numbers are exaggerated the purpose being to bolster support for the government.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110622-714155.html

I have read about emerging countries growth slowing and commodity bubbles, but growth numbers are nowhere as exaggerated as those of inflation, etc. 4.3% is still a very good rate considering a worldwide crisis. The problem is imho this growth is not reaching most people in the country nor the surplus $ is being used to improve infrastructure, education, etc so basically it is going is a holed sack.

 

[Philsword]

I have read about emerging countries growth slowing and commodity bubbles, but growth numbers are nowhere as exaggerated as those of inflation, etc. 4.3% is still a very good rate considering a worldwide crisis. The problem is imho this growth is not reaching most people in the country nor the surplus $ is being used to improve infrastructure, education, etc so basically it is going is a holed sack.

I agree 4.3% is still respectable but doesn't look too good with 25% inflation and a 40% annual growth in government spending. Things like surpluses could quickly evaporate in these conditions. I also agree that the massive increase in government spending seems mainly aimed at enhancing the popularity of the regime, the bonanza over the last few years would have been better spend as you suggest in improving education and investing in the future of the country.

 

[nikad]

I agree 4.3% is still respectable but doesn't look too good with 25% inflation and a 40% annual growth in government spending. Things like surpluses could quickly evaporate in these conditions. I also agree that the massive increase in government spending seems mainly aimed at enhancing the popularity of the regime, the bonanza over the last few years would have been better spend as you suggest in improving education and investing in the future of the country.

All of these things that you mention, plus their radicalized style for governing, along with the lack of freedom of speech, untrue numbers, inflation, populism, corruption, etc are the reasons why I do not like them. Unfortunately people get less and less involved in politics, hence we always get the same people rearranged in new lists, etc. I am not very optimistic about the political future of the country to be honest.

 

[Barney]

I agree 4.3% is still respectable but doesn't look too good with 25% inflation and a 40% annual growth in government spending. Things like surpluses could quickly evaporate in these conditions. I also agree that the massive increase in government spending seems mainly aimed at enhancing the popularity of the regime, the bonanza over the last few years would have been better spend as you suggest in improving education and investing in the future of the country.

Imports are growing faster then exports(even with import restrictions) and soon Argentina will not be self sufficient in energy.

Will be interesting to see what will happen if Chile cooling things with Bolivia

 

[marksoc]

lack of freedom of speech

Really? The Ley de Medios eliminated the figure of "Calumnias e injurias", so nobody can bring Clarin (or 678) to the justice for the lies they tell you. No newspaper has been closed by the government, in fact there will be more tv channels than before.

 

[Barney]

Yipee, now I can see what a Bolivian living in Dock Sud or El Jaguel thinks

But really, who cares?

 

[Mano Negra]

And you have to take in account that in 8 years K. there hasn't been a single serious incident other then the occasional drought, wildfire or ashes. If the weather conditions are bad for 6 months there would be a lot less money coming in

What about the drought 3 seasons ago that halved the Soya crop?

 

[Mano Negra]

Imports are growing faster then exports(even with import restrictions) and soon Argentina will not be self sufficient in energy.

Will be interesting to see what will happen if Chile cooling things with Bolivia

Argentina is not self sufficient in energy. It imports peak energy from Brazil at about US$400 a MW

 

[Barney]

What about the drought 3 seasons ago that halved the Soya crop?

It was not half but nothing major indeed

 

[Mano Negra]

There is also no real solution for inflation, there are (almost) no industrial profesionals in Argentina(brain drain, no real schooling options) and the industry is not competive, so the only way to protect the domestic jobs is to limit imports and that will stoke inflation.

Increase the price of public services will help cool inflation a bit though and it would make the state finances more healthy

There is some evidence that K is distancing herself from Moyano which would facilitate wage restraint and thus lower inflation. Only Pablo seems to be nominated for a seat. Inflation has a top, as when labor costs make farming uncompetitive or marginal the tax money dries up. With no access to foreign debt things will cool quickly. Fundamentally however Argentina is substantially more solvent than most of the developed economies (as it has hardly any debt) and produces more of the basic commodities that the world needs. If it moves into value added processing of these commodities, its export market will explode, but that takes investment which requires stability.