Changing Usd Before Or After The End Of The Month?

[French jurist]

In short for those who followed the Griesa story with a distant eye:
Because of the uncertainty (default or not?), the Blue dolar has gained around 8% lately (12.65 to 1).

If the situation is finally solved (momentarly: deal or Griesa putting back the stay, not the issue), the Blue dolar will likely go back towards 11.60/11.80.
If the situation is not solved (technical default), the Blue dolar will raise quickly (up to 14? No idea).

Hence my question.

Personally, I think there won't be a default, so better change USD monday or tuesday.

Wondering what others think now?

 

[dennisr]

My GUESS, they will default. RUFO clause opens the flood gates. Wait five months for the RUFOS clause to expire and regroup. No easy choices.

 

[Joe]

Unfortunately the outcome is not a simple binary: default or no default.

The holdouts will say there is a default. Argentina will say there is no default, they have the money to pay and they deposited into the bank. The holdouts will say there is a default in order to get the Credit Default Swaps to activate. Argentina will saying it is seeking ways to pay the creditors but the banks are standing in the way. The limbo will continue for years.

 

[Somewhereinba]

In short for those who followed the Griesa story with a distant eye:
Because of the uncertainty (default or not?), the Blue dolar has gained around 8% lately (12.65 to 1).

If the situation is finally solved (momentarly: deal or Griesa putting back the stay, not the issue), the Blue dolar will likely go back towards 11.60/11.80.
If the situation is not solved (technical default), the Blue dolar will raise quickly (up to 14? No idea).

Hence my question.

Personally, I think there won't be a default, so better change USD monday or tuesday.

Wondering what others think now?

You could always hedge 50/50.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

There is not going to be any agreement. RUFO is more expensive. A default is better for Argentina. Wait after the 30.

http://www.clarin.com/politica/default-recomendacion-abogados-argentinos_0_1182481748.html

 

[Don Alberto]

Unfortunately the outcome is not a simple binary: default or no default.

The holdouts will say there is a default. Argentina will say there is no default, they have the money to pay and they deposited into the bank. The holdouts will say there is a default in order to get the Credit Default Swaps to activate. Argentina will saying it is seeking ways to pay the creditors but the banks are standing in the way. The limbo will continue for years.

Argentina will say cows have wings and that the annual inflation is 10.4%, but what really matters is what the rest of the world says.

Depositing a minor part of the payment won't prevent Argentina from defaulting. The ruling approved by the full New York Court of Appeals says 'pay both restructured bond holders and holdouts, or you have paid none'. Argentina is in default if the money hasn't been received by the bond owners and holdouts no later than 31 July 2014, even if they show up with some cows with wings.

(Quote from "United States Court of Appeals ruling, NML Capital, Ltd. v. Republic of Argentina 12-105(L)":

"The Injunctions provide that “whenever the Republic pays any amount due under the terms of the [exchange] bonds,” it must “concurrently or in advance” pay plaintiffs the same fraction of the amount due to them (the “Ratable Payment”).")

 

[odyssea]

"With the RUFO clause set to expire on December 31, Argentina wants a stay on Griesa’s ruling to allow negotiations without risking claims from exchange bondholders that the government estimates could hit $400 billion. So far, the judge has refused. — Reuters" I wonder if the holdouts assume that giving in to Argentina for payment in January holds no merit....because the chances are that Argentina will not pay them at that time anyway. My assumption is that the holdouts have the fiscal finger to the flame and don't want to release it.

 

[French jurist]

[font=Helvetica Neue']"With the RUFO clause set to expire on December 31, Argentina wants a stay on Griesa’s ruling to allow negotiations without risking claims from exchange bondholders that the government estimates could hit $400 billion. So far, the judge has refused. — Reuters" I wonder if the holdouts assume that giving in to Argentina for payment in January holds no merit....because the chances are that Argentina will not pay them at that time anyway. My assumption is that the holdouts have the fiscal finger to the flame and don't want to release it.[/font]

It's an international case now, involving the EU, Argentina, Japan, the US, etc.
If nothing is changed in Griesa's ruling, Citibank (just an example) will face heavy fines (and possibly executives will face jail time? didn't check yet) in Argentina + the jobs lost for the US financial sector.

Anyway, we'll know soon enough now. If Griesa doesn't change his decision (could be), the developments will be even bigger.

Qui vivra verra

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Unfortunately the outcome is not a simple binary: default or no default.

The holdouts will say there is a default. Argentina will say there is no default, they have the money to pay and they deposited into the bank. The holdouts will say there is a default in order to get the Credit Default Swaps to activate. Argentina will saying it is seeking ways to pay the creditors but the banks are standing in the way. The limbo will continue for years.

...until the Peronists can blame it on their successors.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

...until the Peronists can blame it on their successors.

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