Earlyretirement, Your posts are really well thought out with great content. Thanks for bringing your valuable insights to this forum. Regarding your comment that Macri should have quickly cut down on spending when he came into office, I thought he at least tried to do that by laying off thousands of workers that supposedly were gnocchi.
Thanks Macanudo. I really do believe there is great value by sharing information. Especially as it pertains to Argentina. Personally, no matter what Macri did it wouldn't be enough for many. I honestly don't think anyone could have done things to prevent the situation they are in now. Argentina has serious problems and I've outlined the fundamental reasons behind them. Other posters have alluded to them as well.
Without a fundamental change of the laws you can't get long-lasting systemic change. That's why Argentina has crashes every decade to 15 years. I don't see that changing any time soon.
Yes, Macri did get rid off tons and tons of people that the CFK era hired that didn't do anything. The amount of graft under the CFK era was mind boggling. I lived in Argentina the entire time her and her husband reigned in Argentina. Macri truly did inherit a huge mess. Anyone that will try to deny or argue with that FACT is seriously delusional. I don't believe that anyone could have avoided the crises we are in now.
Also there is just bad luck with the drought and tons of lost income with the corn and soy harvests. That didn't help. But up until April/May people had high hopes. It's just that once people lose hope/faith things can snowball and drastically fall. He made lots of mistakes. Personally I think the biggest mistake he made was not immediately upon taking office lay out and be honest with the Argentine people and tell them how bad things are and the true situation. Obviously he didn't want to scare the citizens immediately upon taking office as well as the international community. But that was what was needed, IMHO.
I'm not saying I'm a huge Macri fan and as mentioned he made a lot of mistakes. But I think that anyone that came in would have very difficult problems turning things around. Sure, you will get people on this forum (I think you know who I'm referring to) will say yeah but if he didn't do X or he only did Y. He didn't tax Z or do P then Argentina wouldn't be where they are. But the reality is that Argentina will probably continually go through these painful periods.
It's a fabulous country with so much potential. Argentina really has everything. Beautiful bountiful country with some of the largest soy and corn exports in the world. Lots of natural resources. Tons of water. Tons of land. Mountains, desserts, Lakes. As the saying goes the only thing wrong with Argentina are the Argentines. I don't believe that saying. But I do believe the laws/taxes/corruption are a deal breaker for long lasting stability.
I think with a place like Argentina you just have to accept the fact that these crises will keep happening and if you are prepared for them then you will probably come out ahead after each crash. Those that bury their head in the sand and think to themselves, "why is this happening" "X President could have prevented this, etc" are delusional. These crashes will most likely keep happening because an overhaul of the laws/taxes/social handouts, etc. can't be easily fixed.